NFL Week 4 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Last week really couldn't have went much better, and yet I feel pretty bummed about the results. I was pretty confident both the Rams and Panthers would cover, but I did not anticipate both teams winning outright, nor did I see the Commanders' performance Monday, even though I figured they'd cover. I can't really pretend that my "process" was correct on those because I was truly off on how I assumed the game would go. Just because it went uneven in my favor isn't exactly something I'm ready to victory lap.

Below you'll find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 4 NFL slate. For more NFL betting content here at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week. 

NFL Week 4 Picks For Each Game

NFL Week 4 Predictions

Week 3 Record ATS: 13-3
Week 3 Record on Totals: 8-8

Season Record ATS: 28-18-2
Season Record on Totals: 24-24

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 4 odds and our predictions for each NFL game.

Cowboys vs. Giants

Malik Nabers has been a revelation like many had predicted, but the Cowboys are the type of team that could actually do damage against an offense so singularly dependent on one player. I don't know if a "team" can have a quarterback's number per say, but Daniel Jones is also 1-7 lifetime against the Cowboys with a 58 completion percentage and 4:13 TD:turnover ratio. I'd love for this number to be a bit lower, especially considering how bad Dallas has looked the past two weeks, but they are comfortably the better team and might actually act like it this week.

Spread Pick: Cowboys -6
Total Pick: Over 45

Saints vs. Falcons

This is the definition of a stayaway game in my mind. People will point to the missed pass interference call against the Chiefs and argue Atlanta should be 2-1, but I think they're closer to 0-3 to this point if you want to play that kind of game.

Meanwhile the Saints predictably fell back down to earth last week, but they still held what had been a gamey Eagles offense (sans A.J. Brown) to single digits all the way until the final moments of the game. 

This is one of the more unreported rivalries in the NFL, and it's one of those matchups at the beginning of the year you just assume will be a series split when you're trying to figure out over/unders on win totals. I have no idea how this will go or who will show up, but it's not something we need to be concerned with regardless.

Spread Pick: Falcons -1.5
Total Pick: Under 42

Bengals vs. Panthers

I wasn't surprised at all to see Carolina's offense actually proficient with the change to Andy Dalton, but it was truly jarring to see the Raiders just completely fall apart to the extent they did one week after surprisingly beating the Ravens. There's room to overreact one way or another from that game.

I'm choosing to think less of Las Vegas as a result, but the way the Bengals' season has gone I guess it wouldn't be all that crazy to see them drop this game too. I think if Cincinnati had won even one of these contests earlier this season the spread would be more like -7 or -7.5, so I'm trying to take a bit of the value that's still there, even if it's a theoretical practice at this point.

Spread Pick: Bengals -4.5
Total Pick: Under 48

Rams vs. Bears

I'm really surprised the Bears are giving points still at this point. They seem poorly coached, lack an identity and don't have a lot of cohesion schematically. Meanwhile, the Rams seem to know exactly who they are regardless of who is able to suit up, which I credit a lot to the Sean McVay/Matthew Stafford connection.

The Rams could very well be riding high after that monster divisional victory, and the Bears are due at some point just to look competent, but I guess I'm falling into the trap of expecting a consistent result to play over week to week. The Rams have lost everyone of consequence and have still been more or less the same. Why should that change in Chicago this week?

Spread Pick: Rams +2.5
Total Pick: Over 41

Vikings vs. Packers

This is another complete stayaway for me. I am assuming Jordan Love (knee) will play, although comments from Matt LaFleur after Sunday's victory over the Titans seem to indicate they knew early into last week that the highly-paid quarterback wouldn't suit up, despite practicing all week and earning a questionable designation on the final injury report. I'm also assuming Sam Darnold will play after sustaining a bone bruise in his left knee in the surprising win over the Texans, but you know what they say about assumptions.

This seems to be the new thing in the NFL, whether it was the Kyle Shanahan disaster class related to Christian McCaffrey's injury, or Joe Mixon saying he'd play Week 3 after injuring his ankle in the win over the Bears, but I'm really tired of it. Coaches and players are going to play games with injuries; that's fine. I just expect that. But it feels like the organizations have taken it to another level in terms of being disingenuous about this stuff. Realistically it's probably just that more players and coaches have accessibility to be "quoted" on things than every before and that's why this trend is becoming more noticeable, but whatever the reason it needs to stop.

Spread Pick: Packers -2.5
Total Pick: Over 43.5

Jaguars vs. Texans

I've pretty consistently favored the Jaguars week to week because I figured at some point talent would win out despite poor coaching, but this could very well be the last game of the Doug Pederson era if this becomes another blowout.

The only thing stopping me from saying that outright is that I'm not sure who would take over as the coach if that occurred given the staff is so inexperienced, but there was already some rumors that Shad Khan, owner of the team, would effectively hire a shadow coach at some point towards the end of the year knowing full well this staff had run its course. That sounds like a particularly bad idea, but watching this laborious team the first couple weeks of the season, it's becoming less crazy by the minute.

Spread Pick: Texans -7
Total Pick: Under 45.5

Steelers vs. Colts

I really don't understand this at all. The Steelers have thrived against bad quarterback play all year and are going against one of the worst to begin the young season. They absolutely should be faired more than they are. This is the first clearly suspicious line that I can recall through four weeks, but I guess I'm going to just walk blindly into this Vegas buzz saw.

Spread Pick: Steelers -1.5
Total Pick: Under 40

Broncos vs. Jets

Because I'm me, I look at the 13-3 last week and all I think about is how I outright said there was zero way in which the Broncos could conceivably win over the Buccaneers, much less cover. My whole theme of September games is trying not to overreact, but it's pretty clear Denver's defense is one of the better units in the league, and if their offense can show any modicum of productivity, they're at minimum a team that should be a threat to cover week to week.

Maybe it was just a one-week blip against a Buccaneers team that is pretty good, but not great. Maybe in today's NFL, even great teams can struggle. The latter is probably the most accurate way to describe football in the year 2024. In either case, I think the Broncos should be in a position to at least cover come Sunday.

Spread Pick: Broncos +7.5
Total Pick: Under 38.5

Eagles vs. Buccaneers

It's not quite as confusing as the Steelers line from above, but if you've come away from these first three weeks thinking the Eagles should be favored on the road against a playoff-caliber team, I don't know what you've been watching.

The Buccaneers throttled the Eagles in the playoffs ending what was effectively a dead-man-walking 1.5 months for Philadelphia in 2023. It was the ultimate "bad vibes" situation as the kids would say. Should that matter in this equation? Will it matter to the players? I'd be lying if there isn't something in my brain that says it does, but I can't quantify it. I also, possibly naively, think the Buccaneers are a completely capable and well-coached team, at least in relation to the Eagles. That should matter, especially with this one at home.

Spread Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Total Pick: Over 45

Commanders vs. Cardinals

I think the Cardinals are easily the better team, but the defense is bad enough to the point where Jayden Daniels and the Commanders should keep this competitive. I'd be a bit surprised if the rookie QB can build on Monday's electric performance as a passer, but he's a capable dual threat against a bad defense -- that's cause enough to assume a cover could occur at least. 

Spread Pick: Commanders +3.5
Total Pick: Under 50.5

Patriots vs. 49ers

I think the Patriots' defense will actually do a pretty good job of containing Jauan Jennings, Jordan Mason and the rest of the beleaguered Niner weapons, but how much can you really hold off a team when you're struggling to cross the 50-yard line once a half? That's my biggest concern despite the massive spread.

Spread Pick: 49ers -10
Total Pick: Under 39.5

Chiefs vs. Chargers

I don't really think the status of Justin Herbert (ankle) matters. Taylor Heinicke looked pitiful in his debut with the Chargers last week, but if he was forced into the starting lineup I don't think the veteran would struggle all that much. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards will likely combine for something like 30-plus carries in this one, and it's that exact scenario that makes me a bit worried the Chargers can at least cover.

With how much the Chiefs dink and dunk, that gameplan I think plays right into the very few win conditions Los Angeles might be able to generate. This is an important game for the Jim Harbaugh era, and I think it's going to be closer than some might anticipate.

Spread Pick: Chargers +8
Total Pick: Under 39

Browns vs. Raiders

I appreciate you clicking on this article, but I care about you, the reader. Please try to avoid this game if you can. Just think of it as practice for the bye weeks starting next week. There is no way to win, and anyone actively caring about this result is the real loser of the week.

Spread Pick: Raiders -1
Total Pick: Over 37

Bills vs. Ravens

Vegas isn't quite saying this is a pick'em, but I'm not sure how you can watch both of these teams over the past three weeks and think the Ravens should be favored to any extent.

It's a lot of faith being placed in John Harbaugh (rightfully so) and I think a fair assumption that the Bills have to eventually stop looking like a juggernaut, but this isn't like a Saints situation, who no one assumed was among the best teams in the league entering the year.

I picked the Bills to miss the playoffs this year, so maybe I should be rooting for Buffalo to lose this one. They just seem like a way better team than I was anticipating, and more importantly for this argument, significantly more consistent than the rollercoaster Ravens.

Spread Pick: Bills +2.5
Total Pick: Under 46.5

Titans vs. Dolphins

Copy and paste the Browns/Raiders analysis for here. The only asterick is that if Tyler Huntley is the Dolphins' starter, I might be a bit more intrigued by the over. But otherwise it's one bad team (Tennessee) against a team without a top-64 QB. Begrudgingly I'll take the Will Levis side in that situation.

Spread Pick: Titans +1
Total Pick: Under 36.5

Seahawks vs. Lions

Even before Tua Tagovailoa's injury made the game above a laugher, the Titans shouldn't have been on primetime, so I appreciate ESPN having the foresight to know the earlier Monday game would be such an abomination that the collective viewing audience could actually get a real matchup for primetime.

I'm anticipating a racous crowd once again in Detroit, and I don't know if Geno Smith and the Seahawks will be able to handle it. While the Lions haven't looked quite like the team that everyone envisioned could be atop the NFC at the end of the year, they're still winning/keeping things close. In a lot of ways, they've been one of the most consistent teams in the conference even if they've underperformed their lofty expectations.

Spread Pick: Lions -3.5
Total Pick: Under 47

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 4 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. We went 5-3 in best bets last week with a bunch of teasers sprinkled in to get plus-money action. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 4

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 4. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 4 at BetMGM.

• Steelers -1.5 (-110)
• Anthony Richardson over 0.5 interceptions (-135)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 4

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 4. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

• (-125) Two-team 6-point -- HOU (-0.5) and LAR (+9)

bet365 Best Bets for NFL Week 3

bet365 has a strong menu of NFL Week 4 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the bet365 promo code ROTOWIRE for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at bet365.

• Chargers not to make first down on their first drive (+160)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 4

DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 4 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

• Joe Burrow under 11.5 rushing yards (-120)
• Brock Purdy under 237.5 passing and rushing yards (-115)

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 4

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

• Weekly Specials -- Both Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones to have 25+ yards each half (+550)
• (+130) Three-team 6.5-point teaser -- GB (+4), WAS (+10) and LAC (+14)

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 4

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 4.

• NYG/DAL same-game parlay (+410) - CeeDee Lamb ATTD, Cowboys moneyline, under 5.5 total touchdowns and adjusted total under 52

Fanatics Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 4

Fanatics Sportsbook is ringing in its first full NFL season. You can get in on the action at Fanatics by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo for up to $1,000 in bonus bets over the first 10 days that your account is active. Here are our favorite picks this week using odds at Fanatics Sportsbook.

• NFL Super Boosts -- Saquon Barkley to score a TD in Week 4 (+100)

Look ahead at the NFL Week 5 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.