NFL Waiver Wire: Week 1 Deep Dive

We've hit the first run of waivers in most leagues and it's an interesting time to be putting in claims. In most formats and leagues, there are few roster decisions to be made due to a relative lack of injuries and a complete lack of bye weeks. My preference is to stash players in either ambiguous roles or projected top-end offenses. With that, let's jump in.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan at Texans (20% rostered ESPN)

Something likely went pretty badly in the draft for those reliant upon starting Ryan in traditional league formats, and he's a no-brainer in 2QB/Superflex leagues. That leaves him in no man's land in terms of waivers, but he should be able to start the season on a reasonably strong note against Houston.

Carson Wentz vs. Jaguars (17% rostered ESPN)

Wentz's real-life play says something different, but he's a moderately useful fantasy quarterback having finished 16th at the position in points per game last season. Jacksonville's roster has improved, but there isn't a reason to shy away from the matchup.

Daniel Jones at Titans (16% rostered ESPN)

Jones is the type of QB I want to take the chance on early in the season. In traditional formats, he shouldn't be needed as a starter. On the other hand, there's at least some chance of upside with Brian Daboll potentially bringing a functional offense to New York and Jones' rushing ability.

Baker Mayfield vs. Browns (14% rostered ESPN)

The puff pieces are coming out for Mayfield ahead of his Week 1 revenge game. Like Jones, there's room to see things going right for him surrounded by skill players like Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore, so I'd prioritize taking a chance ahead of some of the more boring options subsequently listed.

Mac Jones at Dolphins (17% rostered ESPN)

I don't really want to trust the New England offense, particularly in Miami to begin the season. However, Jones could take a step forward in Year Two and could be a reasonable start once bye weeks pile in. Whether he needs to be on your bench now is a league-specific determination.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Giants (17% rostered ESPN)

Tannehill falls into a similar bucket of analysis as Matt Ryan. He's not good enough to comfortably start in one-quarterback leagues and is likely universally rostered in leagues where that position is more in demand.

Joe Flacco vs. Ravens (1% rostered ESPN)

Flacco is perhaps the one available pickup in QB-premium leagues ahead of Week 1. Zach Wilson has been ruled out until Week 4, so we at least know Flacco will operate as a warm body under center for the Jets until then.

Running Back

Tyler Allgeier vs. Saints (25% rostered ESPN)
Damien Williams vs. Saints (7% rostered ESPN)

The Falcons' backfield is ambiguous. We don't know how the team intends to use Cordarrelle Patterson this season, but the chances of his role looking like that of a conventional workhorse running back appear slim. That leaves a combination of Allgeier and Williams as potential beneficiaries. The Atlanta offense isn't likely to be efficient enough to sustain all three, but it's worth stashing thos two until we have a better idea of how the backfield will be split.  

Isiah Pacheco at Cardinals (19% rostered ESPN)
Jerick McKinnon at Cardinals (15% rostered ESPN)

The Chiefs have a less hazy situation than the Falcons, but their offensive firepower makes it worth speculating in case Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues to disappoint. Pacheco was a riser during the preseason, but McKinnon was a postseason hero for Kansas City and could carry that momentum into 2022.

Mike Davis at Jets (11% rostered ESPN)
Kenyan Drake at Jets (5% rostered ESPN)
Justice Hill at Jets (0% rostered ESPN)

This is the last of the more ambiguous backfields, though there were positive reports for seemingly the first time this offseason about J.K. Dobbins on Wednesday. If he's active, only one other back of this group is likely to emerge as a viable play until Gus Edwards is eligible to return in Week 4.

Kenneth Gainwell at Lions (29% rostered ESPN)

Gainwell is likely rostered in most 12-team leagues, but it's worth checking just in case. The Eagles have been curiously quiet about Miles Sanders' status. He returned to practice Wednesday, but did so at times with the second-team offense during training camp and was also sidelined for a significant amount of practice. The addition of Trey Sermon makes things a bit more complicated due to his more prototypical size of a workhorse back compared to Gainwell, but he's shown no ability to gain yards in an NFL offense.

Sony Michel vs. Raiders (7% rostered ESPN)

Austin Ekeler is obviously the top back for the Chargers, but the team didn't seem particularly enthused about the competition for touches behind him leading up to the regular season. It was consistently reported that Joshua Kelley was ahead of rookie Isaiah Spiller on the depth chart, but Kelley struggled last season as a rookie. Enter Michel, who could immediately have a goal-line/short-yardage role.

Khalil Herbert vs. 49ers (25% rostered ESPN)

Herbert feels more like a handcuff-and-stash rather than a truly speculative play. However, he would almost certainly step into a full-time role if David Montgomery went down – something along the lines of Alexander Mattison-lite.  

Rachaad White at Cowboys (13% rostered ESPN)

We're slipping further into handcuff territory with White. But unlike Herbert, there's no guarantee White would be a workhorse if Leonard Fournette got hurt. As a third-round pick and a highly athletic running back that is excellent as a pass catcher, he's a worthy stash.

Tyrion Davis-Price at Bears (3% rostered ESPN)
Jeff Wilson at Bears (3% rostered ESPN)

It's not the highest level of analysis, but we know the 49ers do unpredictable things with their backfield. There are worst ways to use a roster spot than potentially stashing this year's Elijah Mitchell.

Ty Montgomery at Dolphins (2% rostered ESPN)

James White retired to open up the pass-catching role in New England. Rhamondre Stevenson has gotten the hype during preseason and training camp, but didn't post strong receiving numbers in college or in his first year as a pro. It's possible he improved in the area, but Montgomery is worth speculating on.

Wide Receivers

Jalen Tolbert vs. Buccaneers (28% rostered ESPN)

Michael Gallup is out for Week 1, which means Tolbert will almost certainly be asked to step into a significant role right away. Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz may be more targeted, so don't expect a massive game, but Tolbert could gain a foothold in the Dallas offense early on.

Nico Collins vs. Colts (21% rostered ESPN)

Collins enjoyed a better offensive season in 2021 than many may think, particularly given the context of the Texans' offense. He should immediately be the second priority for targets in Year Two and is primed to take a step forward and be a viable – if unspectacular – WR3/FLEX option.

Christian Watson at Vikings (19% rostered ESPN)
Romeo Doubs at Vikings (21% rostered ESPN)

Watson is finally healthy after an injury-plagued training camp. He may get off to a slow start to his rookie season as a result, but could prove to be a pivotal early-season pickup if he gains rapport with Aaron Rodgers. Doubs has shown a flashy, yet inconsistent preseason. I'd bet on Watson in the long-term, but Doubs has been healthy and could start the season higher on the depth chart.

Isaiah McKenzie at Rams (16% rostered ESPN)

McKenzie is seemingly the top slot option in Buffalo. He isn't a great play to open the season on Thursday, but getting exposure to the Bills' offense is enough of a draw.

A.J. Green vs. Chiefs (10% rostered ESPN)

The total lack of interest in Green this season is a bit perplexing. He averaged 15.7 yards per reception and 9.2 yards per target in Arizona last season, both above his career-average marks. Without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season, Green could legitimately be used as a 1A option besides Marquise Brown while competing for targets with Zach Ertz.

KJ Hamler at Seahawks (5% rostered ESPN)

Hamler is another player I would project to see a big bump in roster rate after the Week 1 waiver run. He should be on the field for three-receiver sets and his deep speed matches well with Russell Wilson's ability to get the ball deep.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. Giants (2% rostered ESPN)

It's no secret the Titans' offense runs through Derrick Henry. But while the team waits for Treylon Burks to get up to speed, Westbrook-Ikhine should see a lot of the field in two-receiver sets. He topped 50 yards on three occasions last season, so there may be a bit of juice in the short-term.

Parris Campbell at Texans (2% rostered ESPN)

Campbell keeps getting chances in Indianapolis. He's yet to take advantage, but the division of targets in the Colts' offense behind Michael Pittman is ambiguous to begin the campaign.

Zay Jones at Commanders (1% rostered ESPN)

Jones quietly maintained a reasonable role with the Raiders last season and the Jaguars – wisely or not – invested a significant amount to sign him this offseason. After the team traded Laviska Shenault, the third-receiver role pretty clearly belongs to Jones. The Jacksonville offense isn't projected to be dynamic enough to prop up his stats on a weekly basis, but he'll likely have useful performances.

Bryan Edwards vs. Saints (1% rostered ESPN)

We can pretty much copy and paste the analysis for Zay Jones to apply to Edwards. He may have an even more direct path to targets, particularly if Drake London can't go Week 1.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram at Commanders (20% rostered ESPN)

The only reason to acquire Engram from an NFL team's standpoint is to use him as a receiver. There may not be much volume available in Jacksonville, depending on where he slots into the pecking order for targets among Zay Jones and Travis Etienne with both Marvin Jones and Christian Kirk presumably ahead of him. 

Albert Okwuegbunam at Seahawks (18% rostered ESPN)

Okwuegbunam had his path cleared as the top tight end in Denver early this season after Greg Dulcich was placed on injured reserve. Similar to Engram, we don't know how Russell Wilson will prioritize him among the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and KJ Hamler. The potential makes it worth finding out.

Austin Hooper vs. Giants (17% rostered ESPN)

Hooper has perhaps the clearest path to targets of the tight ends mentioned. Ryan Tannehill has consistently praised Hooper throughout the summer months. There's not much upside to the passing offense in Tennessee, but he could be a tight end to immediately pick up and start in a pinch while Treylon Burks gets up to speed.

Gerald Everett vs. Raiders (12% rostered ESPN)

Six seasons into his pro career, it's easy to dismiss Everett. However, he's an athletic tight end that produced very well in college. That typically isn't all that relevant this late in a player's career, but it's worth revisiting his potential as he heads into a prolific Chargers attack. Everett is likely to be the fourth target for Justin Herbert, which is more exciting than it sounds.

Isaiah Likely at Jets (6% rostered ESPN)

Perhaps no player at the position rose more than Likely this preseason. He's a fine stash, but don't get carried away as he's in a low-volume pass offense where he could still operate as the third tight end.

Mo Alie-Cox at Texans (4% rostered ESPN)

Alie-Cox has the potential to emerge out of the ambiguity among Colts' pass catchers after Michael Pittman. He's not a start this week, but it's easy to foresee him graduating from this list within a few weeks.