This article is part of our NFL Staff Picks series.
Welcome to the 2023 edition of Staff Picks, where each week this season our writers will pick every NFL game against the spread.
Defending champ Scott Pianowski is back to defend to his crown, joined, as usual, by his Yahoo Sports compatriot Dalton Del Don and RotoWire writers Jeff Erickson, Nick Whalen and Kevin Payne.
Pianowski led wire-to-wire last season, finishing 149-114-8, 16 games ahead of the field, to beat the vig at 56.7 percent (not including ties).
Week 1 features four unanimous picks. Two are home dogs — Browns +2.5, Steelers +2 — and two are big home favorites — Commanders -7, Seahawks -5.5. Four teams garnered four votes, just missing unanimity.
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| MATCHUP | ERICKSON | PIANOWSKI | WHALEN | PAYNE | DEL DON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions +4.5 at Chiefs | Lions | Lions | Chiefs | Lions | Lions |
| Panthers +3.5 at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Panthers |
| Texans +10 at Ravens | Texans | Texans | Texans | Ravens | Ravens |
| Bengals -2.5 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Jaguars -5 at Colts | Colts | Colts | Jaguars | Jaguars | Colts |
| Buccaneers +6 at Vikings | Buccaneers | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Buccaneers |
| Titans +3 at Saints | Saints | Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans |
| 49ers -2 at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers |
| Cardinals +7 at Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders |
| Packers +1 at Bears | Packers | Packers | Packers | Bears | Packers |
| Raiders +3.5 at Broncos | Raiders | Raiders | Broncos | Broncos | Raiders |
| Dolphins +3 at Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Eagles -4 at Patriots | Eagles | Patriots |
Welcome to the 2023 edition of Staff Picks, where each week this season our writers will pick every NFL game against the spread.
Defending champ Scott Pianowski is back to defend to his crown, joined, as usual, by his Yahoo Sports compatriot Dalton Del Don and RotoWire writers Jeff Erickson, Nick Whalen and Kevin Payne.
Pianowski led wire-to-wire last season, finishing 149-114-8, 16 games ahead of the field, to beat the vig at 56.7 percent (not including ties).
Week 1 features four unanimous picks. Two are home dogs — Browns +2.5, Steelers +2 — and two are big home favorites — Commanders -7, Seahawks -5.5. Four teams garnered four votes, just missing unanimity.
Odds from BetMGM. Use the BetMGM Bonus Code for a risk-free bet up to $1,000.
| MATCHUP | ERICKSON | PIANOWSKI | WHALEN | PAYNE | DEL DON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions +4.5 at Chiefs | Lions | Lions | Chiefs | Lions | Lions |
| Panthers +3.5 at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Panthers |
| Texans +10 at Ravens | Texans | Texans | Texans | Ravens | Ravens |
| Bengals -2.5 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Jaguars -5 at Colts | Colts | Colts | Jaguars | Jaguars | Colts |
| Buccaneers +6 at Vikings | Buccaneers | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Buccaneers |
| Titans +3 at Saints | Saints | Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans |
| 49ers -2 at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers |
| Cardinals +7 at Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders |
| Packers +1 at Bears | Packers | Packers | Packers | Bears | Packers |
| Raiders +3.5 at Broncos | Raiders | Raiders | Broncos | Broncos | Raiders |
| Dolphins +3 at Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Eagles -4 at Patriots | Eagles | Patriots | Eagles | Eagles | Patriots |
| Rams +5.5 at Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks |
| Cowboys -3 at Giants | Giants | Giants | Cowboys | Giants | Giants |
| Bills -2.5 at Jets | Jets | Jets | Bills | Bills | Jets |
| Best Bet | Giants | Giants | Falcons | Bills | Patriots |
| 2022 Best Bet Record | 8-10 | 8-9-1 | 9-9 | 8-9-1 | 10-8 |
| 2022 Unanimous Pick Record | 12-11-2 | ||||
| 2022 Majority Pick Record | 128-135-8 | ||||
| 2022 Record | 127-136-8 | 149-114-8 | 124-139-8 | 131-132-8 | 133-130-8 |
| 2021 Record | 129-140-3 | 134-135-3 | N/A | 145-124-3 | 136-133-3 |
| 2020 Record | 121-127-8 | 128-120-8 | N/A | 115-133-8 | 118-130-8 |
| 2019 Record | 126-124-6 | 140-110-6 | N/A | 127-123-6 | 134-116-6 |
| 2018 Record | 125-122-9 | 134-113-9 | N/A | N/A | 120-127-9 |
| 2017 Record | 117-125-14 | 128-114-14 | N/A | N/A | 98-144-14 |
| 2016 Record | 140-111-5 | 130-121-5 | N/A | N/A | 132-119-5 |
| 2015 Record | 134-114-8 | 120-128-8 | N/A | N/A | 121-127-8 |
| 2014 Record | 123-128-5 | 140-111-5 | N/A | N/A | 128-123-5 |
| 2013 Record | 132-114-10 | 118-128-10 | N/A | N/A | 128-118-10 |
| 2012 Record | 110-140-6 | 125-125-6 | N/A | N/A | 123-127-6 |
| 2011 Record | 121-128-7 | 134-115-7 | N/A | N/A | 127-122-7 |
| 2010 Record | 129-122-5 | 134-117-5 | N/A | N/A | 134-117-5 |
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | N/A | N/A | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | N/A | N/A | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | N/A | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| WRITER | COMMENT |
|---|---|
| Erickson | I'm on a lot of home dogs this week — Browns, Giants, Jets, Steelers. I also think the Vikings are a Survivor trap. They're better at the QB position, but I don't think that their defense is improved all that much, if at all. |
| Pianowski | Divisional home underdogs traditionally do well in openers, and while trends aren't an automatic answer key, it seems to make intuitive sense. Let the dogs bark. |
| Whalen | I've been relatively high on the Falcons all offseason — due in large part to the fact that they have the easiest schedule in the NFL. That begins with a nice home matchup against a rookie QB making his pro debut. Atlanta should do enough on offense to control the game and cover the 3.5. |
| Payne | Overall, even ATS, I'm siding with the home teams this week. Aaron Rodgers is not Tom Brady. The Lions would have been my second Best Bet even before the Kelce injury. |
| Del Don | As usual in Week 1, I liked a lot of picks this week, but admittedly none stood out as "best." |
The players:
• Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior Editor, 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2016 Staff Picks champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
• Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to RotoWire. 2009, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022 Staff Picks champ. Roots for the Patriots.
• Nick Whalen: RotoWire Senior Media Analyst. Writes Beating the Book. Roots for the Jaguars.
• Kevin Payne: RotoWire Staff Writer, 2021 Staff Picks champ. Writes our Waiver Wire column. Roots for the Bills.
• Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks champ. Roots for the 49ers.
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