We're entering the most difficult weekend of the season to project. There's still some of the typical based on matchups and role, but there's also a significant amount of trying to project a team's state of mind and motivation – something that's exceptionally difficult to do. The most straightforward strategy is to focus on teams with known motivation, or teams looking to build for next season. That will be most of the focus in this article, but be sure to keep up on the news as the weekend progresses as both team and player outlooks can change quickly.
Higher
Jalen McMillan vs. CAR – higher than 31.5 receiving yards
McMillan had a breakout game in his third contest of the year against Miami last weekend. Don't expect the same results (114 yards on nine targets), but McMillan's role is what became noteworthy. He ran more routes than Emeka Egbuka (26 vs. 23), and he had the highest target per route run rate of any Tampa Bay pass catcher. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain the top options in the passing offense, but McMillan has seemingly gained enough of a role to surpass this projection.
Parker Washington vs. TEN – higher than 50.5 receiving yards
The Jaguars' offense is clicking on all cylinders and Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas have each found their roles. Washington has unquestionably had the most valuable of those roles in the last two weeks, leading the team with 20 targets (28.2 percent target per route run), 246 air yards and 260 receiving yards. Just like McMillan, this type of success isn't likely to stick in the long term, but the projection hasn't come close to taking into account his recent level of production.
Ricky Pearsall vs. SEA - higher than 43.5 receiving yards
The theme so far has been receivers that have earned expanded roles in recent weeks, and Pearsall is yet another example. Though most of his season has been thwarted by injury, Pearsall was a full-time player (33 routes) in Week 17 and looks to be rounding into form just in time for the 49ers' playoff run. A matchup against the Seahawks is tough, but the role should be good enough for Pearsall to surpass this modest projection.
Kenneth Gainwell vs. BAL – higher than 29.5 receiving yards
The Ravens have been an inconsistent defense, sometimes looking like the typically elite version of the unit. They've also struggled significantly at times, and one consistent issue has been defending the pass out of the backfield. Baltimore has faced 102 targets to opposing running backs this season – the fourth-highest mark in the league – while surrendering the fifth-most receiving yards. The Steelers took advantage in the team's first matchup of the season, though it was Jaylen Warren who was the far more productive back. The more typical usage for Pittsburgh this season has been for Warren to see more of the work on the ground, but for Gainwell to be almost the exclusive pass catcher.
Michael Wilson at LAR – higher than 67.5 receiving yards
Both teams are expected to play their starters in this game, but Wilson has been excellent anytime Marvin Harrison (foot) has been out of the lineup. With Xavier Weaver setting up to be the WR2, targets should be extremely consolidated between Wilson and Trey McBride. Add in that the Rams are a middling matchup and there is some potential for garbage time production, similar to what occurred in Week 17.
Lower
Cam Ward at JAX – lower than 194.5 passing yards
Ward has taken some steps forward in the second half of the season, but that progress looks likely to stop in Week 17. The Jaguars have plenty to play for and are one of the tougher matchups in the league on a yards per attempt basis. The one downside to going lower on this projection is that the Titans are a pass-funnel defense, potentially slowing down the game and creating extra possessions. That doesn't mean Ward will have success, however, and he managed only 131 passing yards in Week 13 in these teams' first matchups of the season.
Bucky Irving vs. CAR – lower than 82.5 rushing + receiving yards
Irving seemingly isn't fully healthy, but it's clear he isn't performing well. He's managed more than 61 rushing yards only once in his five games since returning from injury. More importantly, Irving has lost his role as a pass catcher, averaging only two receptions per game in that same five-contest span. The Panthers are something of a run-funnel defense, but Irving has shown minimal ability to take advantage of similarly favorable matchups against the Falcons and Cardinals in recent weeks.
Kirk Cousins vs. NO – lower than 220.5 passing yards
The Falcons have had a surprising resurgence to close the regular season, though that has a lot to do with an improved defense and Bijan Robinson rather than Cousins. Cousins has mixed efficient and inefficient games, but the bottom line is that he's been held below 200 passing yards in four of his six starts. The Saints have also been a surprisingly tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks, so this isn't a particularly easy way for him to close the regular season.
