This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The NFL season has nearly arrived!
Past performance of course never guarantees future results. Also, sample sizes vary. But hey, there are a few interesting Week 1 trends that apply to matchups on the docket. I did a little data diving from opening games going back to 2002 -- the first season with the current 32-team, eight-division format -- and came up with these observations.
Home Dogs Bark in Division Games
Familiarity breeds ... upsets and relatively tight games. Since 2002, home underdogs in division games have gone a sterling 27-11-1 (71.1 percent) against the spread. This trend was even more pronounced in recent years, to the tune of 13-2-1 since 2013 and 7-0 back to 2017.
The typical season sees only one or two matchups that fit this criteria in Week 1. But as of this writing, four games make up the list, per spreads from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Browns +1.5 vs 
Bengals
Colts +5 vs 
Jaguars
Giants +3 vs 
Cowboys
Jets +2.5 vs 
Bills
The Jets and Browns may ultimately close as favorites. On the other hand, the Bears are down to -1.5 at home over the Packers, so that game could flip in the other direction.
Getting a Field Goal at Home Works, Too
Many of us spend time in the offseason attempting to power rank the teams. Ultimately those opinions may pan out, but a one-off game will not definitively determine who is good or not, and that is particularly true for Week 1 with readiness to start the season being an added variable. That was especially so in recent years, when many teams choose to barely get their starters on the field during the preseason. It keeps injury losses to a minimum of course, but likely at the expense of some early rhythm.
Home underdogs getting three points or more are 46-38-1 (54.8 percent) going back to 2002. That is not really playable, as it is barely above the 52.4 percent break-even level on standard-priced -110 bets. But if we go back only a decade, that mark improves to 25-16-1 (60.98 percent).
Two Week 1 games fill the bill as of this writing:
Patriots +4.5 vs 
Eagles- Giants +3 vs Cowboys
To Channel Lee Corso, "Not So Fast" on the Patriots
Home teams that play Week 1 games against squads from the opposite conference have not done well versus the number. They have gone a miserable 28-42-5 (40.0 percent) ATS since 2002 and a ghastly 11-27-3 (29.0 percent) back a decade and 3-8-1 over the last two seasons. Even if we limit it to home underdogs against the other conference they are just 11-19 (36.67 percent) back to 2002.
So the play here is to go with the road teams in interconference games:
Lions +6.5 at 
Chiefs
49ers -2.5 at 
Steelers
Titans +3.5 at 
Saints- Eagles -4.5 at Patriots
Yes, this trend contradicts the previous trend on the Eagles-Patriots game.
Sports fans in Boston and Philadelphia aren't too ambivalent about their teams, but rest assured, there is a trend that applies to this game. Unders are 19-11 (63.33 percent) in out-of-conference games against home underdogs since 2002.
- 49ers at Steelers Under 40.5
- Eagles at Patriots Under 44.5
Be Careful Fading Mike McCarthy
I would not put enormous value on these small sample sizes, but for what it's worth, here are the Week 1 ATS and Total marks for some long-time coaches.
- John Harbaugh: 10-5 ATS, 7-8 Over
- Mike Tomlin: 8-8 ATS, 7-9 Over
- Bill Belichick: 14-12-2 ATS, 14-13 Over
- Andy Reid: 11-12-1 ATS, 13-11 Over
- Mike McCarthy: 12-4 ATS, 9-7 Over
- Sean Payton: 9-5-1 ATS, 9-5-1 Over
- Ron Rivera: 7-4-1 ATS, 5-7 Over
I know watching Mike McCarthy coach can get maddening, but the numbers suggest he does a good job getting his team ready out of the gate. The Cowboys are still getting a majority of the handle, but not by much, and the Giants are getting the majority of the bets in quantity terms, also by a slim margin. With mixed signals and the fact that I am a Giants fan, I will personally avoid this game in all but a pool where I have to pick every game.
