This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 5 Player Props and Predictions
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We had an excellent week here last week with two out of three anytime touchdown winners (James Conner -135, George Kittle +190) and all three player props hitting (C.J. Stroud Over 259.5 passing yards, Sam Darnold Over 0.5 interceptions, Bo Nix Under 189.5 passing yards). Let's hope we can keep it going this week!
Player Anytime TDs
Derrick Henry, BAL -160 FanDuel
This line lists at a whopping -315 on other sites, and with Henry coming off his two touchdown performance, it makes sense. While I don't like laying -160 odds, this line seems too good to be true, especially factoring in that Henry has scored in every game this season. The Ravens are a slight favorite (-2.5) in the game with the highest over/under of the week (50.5) so taking Henry makes lots of sense. The Bengals rank 21st this season against opposing RB's.
Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson +270 Each, FanDuel
I have had decent success in the past taking two players from the same team for anytime touchdowns and think this one is worth noting. Super rookie Malik Nabers will miss this game, making Slayton and Robinson the two top targets for Daniel Jones. The Giants have a narrow passing tree and lack a solid receiving tight end. If Jones throws just one touchdown, it will likely go to one of these two players. As always, the upside is that both could find the end zone, which could make playing both of these two very fruitful.
Tee Higgins +190 FanDuel
There should be a lot of wagering "goodness" in this game as I pointed out above, it has the highest over/under of the week. Higgins is overdue for a big game and I went back and worth whether to take his anytime touchdown odds or his over for receiving yardage (52.5 FanDuel), so I'll mention both. Every week going forward is another week removed from his early season hamstring injury, and Higgins should continue getting stronger. The Ravens rank 24th against opposing wide receivers and play on the road, which only strengthens Higgins' case. While he's not a touchdown machine, Higgins has 12 touchdowns over his last 28 games (43 percent) suggesting these are good odds to take.
Player Props
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Garrett Wilson Over 52.5 Receiving Yards -113 FanDuel
A wager for the early Sunday game across the pond? Why not! As odd as it sounds I like wagering on a team or their players coming off a week were they played badly and the team is embroiled in controversy. Wilson remains Aaron Rodgers' favorite target (34 targets through four games) and the offensive line is on notice to protect the latter. While the Vikings have opened the season as a nice story, they have struggled against opposing wide receivers, ranking 30th in the league. I would sprinkle a little on a parlay with this over along with an anytime touchdown for Wilson.
Brandon Aiyuk 100+ Receiving Yards +450 DraftKings
Here is my favorite prop of the week. While it shouldn't hit given the odds, hear me out. Aiyuk has not gone over 48 receiving yards in any of his games this season but has a great opportunity for a breakout at home against the Cardinals. He has at least five targets in every game this season and the Cardinals are below league-average against opposing wide receivers. I was tempted to just take his over/under here at 59.5 yards but then went back and looked at last season. He went over that mark in 10 games in 2023 but in those 10 games he exceeded 100 yards in seven of them. This is a great low risk, big reward wager for Sunday.
Gardner Minshew Under 189.5 Passing Yards -112 BetRivers
Remember last week when I took the Bo Nix under at this very same yardage? I'm not sure the lines have caught up to the fact that the Broncos are a very good defense. The whole saga with Davante Adams (out) means Minshew will line up without his top receiver. Mishew has hit the over in three of four games this season but I just think that inflates this line above value. Other than Aaron Rodgers last week (225 passing yards), the Broncos did not allow more than 171 passing yards to the other three quarterbacks they faced (Justin Fields, Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield). In the one home game they had, Justin Fields threw for only 117 yards so I do not expect much from Minshew this week.
