This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Monday Night Football Picks and Player Props
Last week's Monday Night football wagers worked great as all three of my anytime touchdown picks hit, as did one out of the two props, including my favorite one. We have two more games on tap Monday night, but unfortunately once again they start within 45 minutes of each other.
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Player Anytime TDs
De'Von Achane, MIA +135 DraftKings
This line is -105 in other shops, and I expect it to move towards there on DraftKings throughout the day. Raheem Mostert has a shot to play, but after listening to the coach speak, it seems like they play it cautiously and hold the touchdown machine out. The Dolphins price as a slight home favorite, and while the game has a low over/under of 37, the odds imply that they still score around 20 points. Achane should see an uptick in touches without Mostert, and if you want to try a long shot, Jeff Wilson sits at +650 on DraftKings. That latter number will drop instantly if or when the Dolphins rule Mostert out.
Sam LaPorta, DET +210 FanDuel
Detroit has the highest expected points total of the night, so it seems wise to find someone there to place a wager on. I will go back to the LaPorta well given he had 10 touchdowns last season and the Seahawks rank 24th against the position for fantasy purposes. LaPorta ran only 16 routes and had two targets this last week. Logic would say those numbers should rise given a progression to the mean (he never had fewer than three targets last season). His over/under for receptions is 4.5 and I don't mind parlaying that with an anytime touchdown. For a long shot in this game, try fellow tight end Brock Wright who at +850 on FanDuel (five targets last week).
Player Props
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Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET Under 79.5 Receiving Yards (BetRivers)
I dislike taking any under, but I think it makes sense in this spot. Seattle ranks as the top team against opposing wide receivers through four games, and they will definitely key in on stopping Brown (which is why I like LaPorta too). Brown has stayed under this mark in two of the first three games and those teams rank similarly to Seattle. I also expect Seattle to run heavily against the Lions as they try to stay away from turning the game into a track meet.
Tyler Huntley, MIA Over 163.5 Passing Yards -113 FanDuel
Huntley has made a handful of starts for Baltimore and never had this much receiving talent. That's what I'm wagering on here - that he'll get a few big plays and this over will hit. The running backs are good receivers out of the backfield as well and Achane could easily take a short pass and hit pay dirt. This is a line I think might move more favorably throughout the day so for once, I would wait and take it more towards kickoff.
