This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Monday Night Football NFL Picks and Props
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We get two games Monday night, which gives me a bigger playing field for spreads and player props. That being said, these two games kickoff within 45 minutes of each other so I would also question that (I know that both are Eastern time zone games). In case you wonder, they cut down school to a half day here in Buffalo (Orchard Park specifically) for the Bills' game.
Game Picks
Jacksonville +5.5 (Fanatics)
This has been a weird week in that teams who were heading in the wrong direction righted the ship and got into the win column (looking at the Giants, Broncos, Panthers etc.). Not sure the Jaguars win outright here, but I think they cover the 5.5 point spread even if they lose. Buffalo will play without two key starters on defense, so Jacksonville should put points up on the board.
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Anytime TDs
Zack Moss -125 (DraftKings)
This line prices as short as -177 on other sites, so get in here sooner than later. I don't think Cincinnati at home will have a tough time with the Commanders as they're a 7.5-point favorite on most sites. Zack Moss is a lock for double-digit carries and should get the goal line work for the Bengals.
Keon Coleman +290 (FanDuel), Dalton Kincaid +250 (FanDuel)
I like taking both Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid as the betting markets expects the Bills to put up 3-4 touchdowns. Chances are a couple of those come through the air. Only one of these has to hit to profit, and we have a huge upside if both of them do. I don't think the Jaguars slow down the Bills offense as this game turns into a bit of a shootout. In a season where tight ends have largely disappointed, I expect a big game out of Kincaid. More on that in a minute.
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Player Props
Dalton Kincaid Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
This is easily my favorite wager of the night as I think the over will hit by halftime. Kincaid hasn't hit this over yet this season, but the Bills should prioritize getting him the ball on Monday night. Jacksonville has looked solid against the tight end position through two games, but hasn't faced anyone with Kincaid's talent in the open field.
Mike Gesicki Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Mike Gesicki got a huge nine targets in Week 2, but highly unlikely the Bengals replicate that this week. In Week 1, Gesicki had a 4-3-18 line, more like what I'd expect Monday night. Betting the under also puts a possible injury in play, not that I'd ever wish to profit off of that. The Commanders have started as the best team against opposing tight ends, albeit it in a two-game sample.
