This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 6 Line Moves and Odds Changes
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are - 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 6 Odds (Opening, Current)
- San Francisco 49ers -5.0 at Seattle Seahawks O/U 46.5 (49ers -3.5, 49.0)
- Jacksonville Jaguars -1.0 vs. Chicago Bears O/U 47.5 (Jaguars -1.0, 44.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints -1.5 O/U 43.0 (Bucs -3.5, 42.5)
- Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles -3.0 O/U 43.0 (Eagles -9.0, 42.0)
- Indianapolis Colts -1.5 at Tennessee Titans O/U 44.5 (Titans -2.5, 43.0)
- Houston Texans -4.5 at New England Patriots O/U 44.0 (Texans -6.5, 37.5)
- Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers -5.0 O/U 46.5 (Packers -5.5, 47.0)
- Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens -8.0 O/U 46.5 (Ravens -6.5, 51.0)
- Los Angeles Chargers -2.0 at Denver Broncos O/U 43.0 (Chargers -3.0, 35.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers -1.0 at Las Vegas Raiders O/U 42.0 (Steelers -3.0, 36.5)
- Atlanta Falcons -3.5 at Carolina Panthers O/U 44.0 (Falcons -6.0, 46.5)
- Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys -1.0 O/U 48.5 (Lions -3.0, 52.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 at New York Giants O/U 45.0 (Bengals -3.5, 47.0)
- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets -1.5 O/U 47.5 (Bills -2.0, 40.5)
BYES: Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, Vikings
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NFL Week 6 Key Injury News
QB - Josh Allen BUF, Aaron Rodgers GB
RB - De'Von Achane MIA, Aaron Jones MIN, Zack Moss BUF, Rhamondre Stevenson NE
WR - Nico Collins HOU, Xavier Legette CAR
NFL Week 6 Odds Observations
- Dogs of +5.5 points or higher are 19-4-1 against the spread
- 5 games with favorites of -5.5 points or higher
- 9 games within 0 to -3.5 points
- 5 games with totals of 47.5 or higher
NFL Week 6 Line Movement
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
The Saints opened as -1.5 pt. home favorites, but the line has moved all the way to Bucs. Jake Haener now potentially starts at quarterback for New Orleans after the injury to Derek Carr on Monday Night. With -3 a key number, this line moving even higher will be significant. The total opened 43.0 and went as high as 45.5, but has moved back down and now sits at 42.5. I would expect this total to come down further, perhaps to even 40 or 41.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
The Browns now list as the team expected to have the least wins, even fewer than the Patriots or Panthers. That is how low of an opinion the oddsmakers have of them with Deshaun Watson still at quarterback.
The Eagles opened -3 and it has moved a full 6 points all the way to the Eagles -9. I think we could see this hit the full 10 point mark by kickoff. A lot of people were behind the Browns last week strictly on the line move, but you can not ignore how bad they look. The Eagles have struggled as well, so it just shows how far the Browns have fallen.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys opened as 1-point favorites, but the Lions have moved to a -3.5 road favorite which is a significant line move as it has gone through the key number of 3. This is also off the Cowboys win against the Steelers, but the Lions come in off a bye which could prove huge this early in the season.
The total opened at 48.5 and has moved up to 52.5. There is no confidence in the Cowboys defense, but also the Lions and Seahawks played to a total of 71 points in Week 4.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
This one is interesting to track as the Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh on Tuesday morning. The Jets opened as -1.5 pt. favorites, but the Bills are now -2.5 in an AFC East game on the road. The Jets have not announced who will take over as the head coach, and that could also have an impact on whether this line moves to -3 or comes back towards the Jets.
The total has taken a huge dive as the Jets offense has been a mess. It opened at 47.5 and has fallen all the way to 41.0 (low of 40.5).
Other Notable Line Moves
Texans/Patriots - Total has dropped from 44.0 to 38.0 (6 point move)
Chargers/Broncos - Total has dropped from to 43.0 to 36.0 (7 point move)
Steelers/Raiders - Total has dropped from 42.0 to 36.0 (6 point move)
