This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
L.A. Rams at Cincinnati (+4.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
No, I didn't list the teams in reverse — the Bengals are officially the home team, even though the game is in Los Angeles. Cincy's also the team that wasn't supposed to be here. Coming off a 4-11-1 campaign in 2020, the offense went from ranking 30th in yards per play last season to seventh with Joe Burrow at the helm, and 29th in points per game to a tie for seventh. The Bengals also had a tougher path to the big game, beating the No. 1 and No. 2 (the Titans and Kansas City) seeds in the AFC after downing the Raiders in the wild-card round. For all the accolades he's getting, though, Burrow's numbers in the postseason haven't actually been all that great, as he's managed a 4:2 TD:INT and 7.7 YPA in those three games. By the way, the team the Bengals were tied with in scoring during the regular season? The Rams, who were also the No. 4 seed in their conference heading into the playoffs, but who had much higher expectations coming into 2021.
With Matthew Stafford brought in to bolster the passing game and give Aaron Donald and the defense some support, this was always supposed to be the year for the club, and the midseason additions of Odell Beckham (albeit to fill the hole left by Robert Woods' injury) and Von Miller just made it even more obvious the Rams
L.A. Rams at Cincinnati (+4.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
No, I didn't list the teams in reverse — the Bengals are officially the home team, even though the game is in Los Angeles. Cincy's also the team that wasn't supposed to be here. Coming off a 4-11-1 campaign in 2020, the offense went from ranking 30th in yards per play last season to seventh with Joe Burrow at the helm, and 29th in points per game to a tie for seventh. The Bengals also had a tougher path to the big game, beating the No. 1 and No. 2 (the Titans and Kansas City) seeds in the AFC after downing the Raiders in the wild-card round. For all the accolades he's getting, though, Burrow's numbers in the postseason haven't actually been all that great, as he's managed a 4:2 TD:INT and 7.7 YPA in those three games. By the way, the team the Bengals were tied with in scoring during the regular season? The Rams, who were also the No. 4 seed in their conference heading into the playoffs, but who had much higher expectations coming into 2021.
With Matthew Stafford brought in to bolster the passing game and give Aaron Donald and the defense some support, this was always supposed to be the year for the club, and the midseason additions of Odell Beckham (albeit to fill the hole left by Robert Woods' injury) and Von Miller just made it even more obvious the Rams were pushing all their chips into the middle. Stafford's also been locked in during the postseason, with a 6:1 TD:INT and 9.1 YPA in his three wins. A lot of focus has been given to the mismatch in the trenches after Tennessee sacked Burrow nine times, but that D-line versus O-line clash is about the only area where the Rams have a clear edge. Maybe Jalen Ramsey can shut down Ja'Marr Chase, but that still leaves Tee Higgins roaming free downfield and Tyler Boyd to work underneath. Cooper Kupp should get his, and Cincy's secondary wasn't able to contain A.J. Brown or Tyreek Hill, but just as with their pass protection issues, it can't be ignored that the Bengals still won those games. The Rams might need someone unexpected to step up and make an impact to put them over the top.
The Skinny
LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (IR, knee), S Jordan Fuller (IR, ankle)
CIN injuries: TE C.J. Uzomah (questionable, knee), RT Riley Reiff (IR, ankle), DT Larry Ogunjobi (IR, foot)
LAR DFS targets: Stafford $10,800 DK / $15,500 FD (CIN 24th in passing DVOA, 26th in passing yards per game), Beckham $8,400 DK / $10,500 FD (CIN 27th in DVOA vs. WR2), Kendall Blanton $4,600 DK / $8,000 FD (CIN 24th in DVOA vs. TE), Rams DST $3,400 DK (third in sacks, CIN 30th in sacks allowed)
CIN DFS targets: Joe Mixon $9,600 DK / $12,500 FD (LAR t-25th in rushing TDs allowed, 24th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
LAR DFS fades: Kupp $11,600 DK / $16,000 FD (CIN sixth in DVOA vs. WR1)
CIN DFS fades: Uzomah $4,400 DK / $7,500 FD (LAR fourth in DVOA vs. TE)
Key stat: LAR are seventh in third-down conversions at 43.9 percent; CIN is 22nd in third-down defense at 41.6 percent
Weather forecast: indoor
The Scoop Cam Akers leads the LAR backfield with 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Stafford comes up big, throwing for 320 yards and three TDs, one each to Kupp, Beckham and Blanton. Mixon bangs out 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Burrow throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Chase and Boyd, but Donald busts up a two-point conversion attempt in the fourth quarter that would send the game to overtime. Rams 31-29
Postseason record: 8-4, 7-5 ATS, 2-9-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1288-769-7, 1005-992-67 ATS, 735-787-30 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
