This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Cincinnati (+7) at Kansas City, o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 3 p.m. EST
The Bengals roll into this one having won five consecutive games in which they didn't rest their starters, handling their business against the Raiders in the wild-card round and then topping the Titans in Tennessee last week. Their last regular-season win, of course, came against Kansas City, as Joe Burrow out-slung Patrick Mahomes. Cincy's done just about everything well lately ... except protect Burrow. He was sacked 21 times during those five wins, including the record-tying nine last week, which made him the first QB in history to win a playoff game after being brought down that many times. (Donovan McNabb held the previous record, getting sacked eight times in a 20-17 win over the Packers in 2003). Despite that pressure, Burrow has calmly amassed an 11:1 TD:INT, 9.1 YPA and 75.2 percent completion rate over that stretch, though it's worth noting he didn't toss a TD last week. Kansas City ranked 29th in sacks this season with only 31, but they picked up the pace a bit once Melvin Ingram was fully integrated into the pass rush, including four against Burrow in their Week 17 clash. Mahomes has also found that extra gear in the playoffs, posting an 8:1 TD:INT, 9.4 YPA and 75.9 percent completion rate in wins over the Steelers and that epic OT against the Bills. If only he faced the Chargers in the first round, he could have run the entire gauntlet
Cincinnati (+7) at Kansas City, o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 3 p.m. EST
The Bengals roll into this one having won five consecutive games in which they didn't rest their starters, handling their business against the Raiders in the wild-card round and then topping the Titans in Tennessee last week. Their last regular-season win, of course, came against Kansas City, as Joe Burrow out-slung Patrick Mahomes. Cincy's done just about everything well lately ... except protect Burrow. He was sacked 21 times during those five wins, including the record-tying nine last week, which made him the first QB in history to win a playoff game after being brought down that many times. (Donovan McNabb held the previous record, getting sacked eight times in a 20-17 win over the Packers in 2003). Despite that pressure, Burrow has calmly amassed an 11:1 TD:INT, 9.1 YPA and 75.2 percent completion rate over that stretch, though it's worth noting he didn't toss a TD last week. Kansas City ranked 29th in sacks this season with only 31, but they picked up the pace a bit once Melvin Ingram was fully integrated into the pass rush, including four against Burrow in their Week 17 clash. Mahomes has also found that extra gear in the playoffs, posting an 8:1 TD:INT, 9.4 YPA and 75.9 percent completion rate in wins over the Steelers and that epic OT against the Bills. If only he faced the Chargers in the first round, he could have run the entire gauntlet of young AFC quarterbacks looking to seize his throne. So far, though, Mahomes has answered almost every challenge in his career when it's counted.
The Skinny
CIN injuries: RT Riley Reiff (IR, ankle)
KC injuries: RB Darrel Williams (questionable, toe), RT Lucas Niang (IR, knee), S Tyrann Mathieu (questionable, concussion)
CIN DFS targets: Burrow $6,600 DK / $7,500 FD (KC 23rd in passing DVOA, 27th in passing yards per game allowed, 24th in YPA allowed), Joe Mixon $6,800 DK / $8,200 FD (KC 31st in YPC allowed, 26th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
KC DFS targets: Mahomes $7,400 DK / $8,800 FD (CIN 24th in passing DVOA, 26th in passing yards per game allowed), Byron Pringle $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD (CIN 27th in DVOA vs. WR2), Travis Kelce $6,500 DK / $7,700 FD (CIN 24th in DVOA vs. TE)
CIN DFS fades: Tyler Boyd $4,200 DK / $5,800 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3), Bengals DEF $2,600 DK / $3,200 FD (KC t-3rd in sacks allowed, fourth in points per game)
KC DFS fades: none
Key stat: CIN is seventh in yards per play at 5.87; KC is 30th in yards per play allowed at 5.92
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Mixon racks up 110 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Burrow throws for 320 yards and two more scores, finding Ja'Marr Chase (who tops 100 yards) and Tee Higgins. Jerick McKinnon leads the KC backfield with 80 scrimmage yards. Mahomes throws for 250 yards and four touchdowns, hitting Kelce (who tops 100 yards) and Pringle twice each, but after a missed Harrison Butker extra point in the first half, Kansas City gets stuffed on a two-point try in the fourth quarter that proves decisive. Bengals 34-32
San Francisco (+3.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
The big question coming into this one is for how much longer Kyle Shanahan will have Sean McVay's number. The Niners have won six consecutive games against the Rams, but it's just incredibly hard to beat the same team three times in the same season, no matter what kind of coaching disparity there might be. That task becomes even harder when your quarterback is being held together by kinesiology tape and prayer. The Niners may have won four straight, but it's no thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo, who has a 2:6 TD:INT over that stretch and has yet to throw a touchdown in the playoffs due to thumb and shoulder injuries. San Francisco's kept rolling thanks to Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel and its defense, but that formula might not take them much farther without Garoppolo providing some kind of boost. George Kittle being kept in to block more often than usual because of those factors also limits the offense's ceiling. Meanwhile, the Rams' only loss since the beginning of December came in overtime against the Niners in Week 18. Cooper Kupp has been the only consistent factor in their attack, but the defense has averaged 18.4 points allowed per game during that stretch, and all the pieces seemed to come together in last week's win over the Bucs. Matthew Stafford has been better in general during the postseason, posting a 4:0 TD:INT, 10.3 YPA and 74.5 percent completion rate in their two victories, and while the Niners' pass rush was able to help contain both Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers on their way here with five sacks in each playoff win, a Rams offensive line that tied for sixth in sacks allowed during the regular season and has let Stafford be brought down only three times in the playoffs figures to be more trouble for Nick Bosa and company.
The Skinny
SF injuries: RB Jeff Wilson (questionable, ankle), LT Trent Williams (questionable, ankle), RT Mike McGlinchey (IR, quadriceps)
LAR injuries: RB Darrell Henderson (IR-R, knee), WR Van Jefferson (questionable, knee), S Taylor Rapp (questionable, concussion)
SF DFS targets: none
LAR DFS targets: Kupp $8,800 DK / $9,700 FD (SF 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
SF DFS fades: Garoppolo $5,400 DK / $6,200 FD (LAR sixth in passing DVOA, second in TD% allowed), Kittle $5,000 DK / $5,800 FD (LAR fourth in DVOA vs. TE)
LAR DFS fades: Cam Akers $5,000 DK / $6,200 FD and Sony Michel $4,600 DK / $5,300 FD (SF second in rushing DVOA, seventh in rushing yards per game allowed, sixth in YPC allowed, fourth in passing DVOA vs. RB), Tyler Higbee $3,700 DK / $5,500 FD (SF fifth in DVOA vs. TE)
Key stat: LAR are seven in third-down conversions at 43.9 percent; SF is 17th in third-down defense at 40.0 percent
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-3 SF, average score 27-23 SF, average margin of victory 12 points. SF has won six straight meetings
Weather forecast: indoor
The Scoop: Mitchell totals 90 scrimmage yards and a score, while Samuel adds 80 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Garoppolo throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Jalen Ramsey returns to the house, and Trey Lance comes in late to toss the touchdown to Samuel. Akers leads the LAR backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Kupp (who tops 100 yards) twice and Odell Beckham once. Rams 35-24
Postseason record: 6-4, 6-4 ATS, 2-7-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1288-769-7, 1005-992-67 ATS, 735-787-30 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
