NFL Draft: Seahawks Fantasy Fallout

Coming out of the NFL Draft, determining Seattle's offensive identity will be pivotal to navigating fantasy drafts.

The Seahawks have not had a championship-level defense since the Legion of Boom broke up. The team showed signs of life in the first half of 2022, helped by hitting on fifth-round CB Tariq Woolen in the draft. This year, they chose to pair Woolen with CB Devon Witherspoon, the fifth overall pick. The Seahawks also drafted edge rusher Derick Hall in the second round, DT Cameron Young in the fourth and DE Mike Morris in the fifth, beefing up a D-line that was the defense's weak point last season. In free agency, they brought back future Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner at inside linebacker and signed pass rusher Dre'Mont Jones, who had 6.5 sacks for the Broncos last season. In addition, Jamal Adams is expected back after suffering a season-ending injury in Week 1.

Although the defense might not rise to the level of those great defenses of the past, there is reason for optimism it will be at least top half in the league. And coach Pete Carroll could again hit on his past formula for success — winning with defense and the run game.

But, the Seahawks used their second pick in the first round (20th overall) on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the first WR off the board. The selection gives Seattle an exciting wideout to add to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, which the team has lacked for years. With the high draft capital invested in Smith-Njigba, does it signal a shift that Carroll wants to become a heavy-passing team? Before having much time to process that question, the Seahawks used their second pick in the second round to select Zach Charbonnet, the third running back off the board. That pick comes after the Seahawks invested a second-round pick in RB Kenneth Walker last year. Finally, in the seventh round, they added another running back in Kenny McIntosh, who had 43 receptions last season for Georgia and could carve out a third-down role.

After the draft, fantasy managers are left with a difficult question. What type of run-pass ratio can we expect from the Seahawks? Last year, Geno Smith threw 572 times. He attempted fewer than 30 passes in only four games. Walker took over the starting RB job Week 6 last season but got inconsistent carries before averaging 26 rushes in the last three games. Also, they used three-WR sets on less than half of their snaps last year. Instead, they leaned heavily on two-TE formations. 

Here is the narrative I've drawn. The Seahawks should have a good enough defense to compete with and/or limit most of the offenses they face. Back when Seattle was competing for championships, they were among the run-heaviest teams in the league and played great defense. In an NFC that's far from loaded, Carroll should be able to go back to that formula. But by adding Smith-Njigba, they also have the firepower to compete in shootouts.

How do we value Seattle's RBs/WRs in fantasy drafts?

Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet

Immediately after the NFL Draft, early fantasy drafts saw Walker falling at least two rounds from his previous ADP. Yes, Charbonnet is potentially a threat to Walker's workload. But going into the draft, the only RB on the roster to back up Walker was DeeJay Dallas. If the team wanted to be run heavy, it was never going to expect that Walker would handle 25 carries a game and hold up for 17 games and the playoffs. The team needed to have a backup plan. Adding Charbonnet gives it that. Walker played very well last year. I expect him to handle 15-20 carries per game as the lead RB. He might not be the top-seven RB many expected, but he shouldn't be devalued much beyond the top 12. Charbonnet profiles as an excellent inside runner, but Walker is far more explosive. I expect Charbonnet to serve in a change-of-pace role, earning 5-10 carries per game. If Walker misses time, Charbonnet would be in line to be a high-end weekly option. I'll draft Charbonnet as a flex option.

DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

With Metcalf and Lockett still playing at a high level, I don't see either giving up more than a few snaps per game from the 85 percent (or more) snap share each had most weeks last season. Although projected to be an excellent player, Smith-Njigba was not considered by many to be an instant superstar. And with Metcalf being the team's physical presence, his role should remain stable. Lockett is excellent both outside and in the slot. It's difficult to see Smith-Njigba overtaking significant snaps from Lockett on the outside. When the team runs three-WR sets, Smith-Njigba should be a staple who plays primarily in the slot. However, he won't often be the primary read. I am drafting Metcalf and Lockett as if their roles will be no different than last year. I am concerned about Smith-Njigba's playing time and target share, so I have him ranked just outside the top-40 WRs.