NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 5 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 5 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 5 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT and features 10 games. The Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers and Seahawks are on bye, while the Thursday Night Football (Bears-Commanders), London Game (Jaguars-Bills), Sunday Night Football (Cowboys-49ers) and Monday Night Football (Packers-Raiders) participants all play outside the main slate in Week 5. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 5, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $200,000 to the top 3,003 finishers, including $25,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 11,760 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $200k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 5 options include a QB from the bargain bin and a pair of rookies off to historic starts.

QUARTERBACK

Joshua Dobbs, ARI vs. CIN ($22): Dobbs has quietly been excellent over the past three games, averaging 21.9 fantasy points while posting a 4:0 TD:INT in that span. He has also topped 40 rushing yards in all three of those games and added one rushing touchdown -- not too shabby for a stretch that included matchups against the vaunted Dallas and San Francisco defenses. Dobbs' rushing ability gives him a solid floor, and locking him in at a low salary in this home game against the 1-3 Bengals leaves you plenty of cap room to spend big on pricey stars such as Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson. Cincinnati has allowed six passing touchdowns this season, as well as 117 yards and a touchdown on the ground to QBs -- the fifth-most such yards allowed in the NFL.

Honorable Mentions:

Patrick Mahomes, KC at MIN ($42); Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NYG ($35); Anthony Richardson, IND vs. TEN ($31)

Against the Grainers:

Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. PHI ($29); Daniel Jones, NYG at MIA ($27); Zach Wilson, NYJ at DEN ($20)

RUNNING BACK

De'Von Achane, MIA vs. NYG ($27): It's possible that Achane will come plummeting back down to earth, but the standout rookie has earned the benefit of the doubt with six TDs in the last two games. After sitting out Week 1 and logging only two touches in his Week 2 NFL debut, Achane has racked up a whopping 343 scrimmage yards to go with those aforementioned touchdowns in two subsequent games. Miami's expected to play from ahead against a Giants team that's been outscored 77-9 in first halves this season, which should lead to plenty of opportunities for both Achane and Raheem Mostert ($28) on the ground against a struggling New York defense that has given up the fourth-most rushing yards (463) and third-most rushing touchdowns (five) to running backs.

Breece Hall, NYJ at DEN ($21): If you think the Giants' run defense is bad, wait until you hear about Denver's. The Broncos have allowed 613 yards on the ground to running backs, and Pittsburgh (505) is the only other team over 500. Denver's seven rushing touchdowns allowed to the position are the most in the league, and the Broncos have also been the second-worst team at defending running backs as pass catchers. Through four weeks, only the Bears (234) gave up more receiving yards to RBs than the Broncos' 225, and they have both allowed four receiving TDs to RBs while nobody else has given up more than one. Hall's averaging 6.6 yards per carry, and Jets coach Robert Saleh said Wednesday that the team will no longer be limiting his workload after easing him back in following last year's torn ACL. Hall's primed for a busy and effective afternoon in Denver.

Honorable Mentions:

Bijan Robinson, ATL vs. HOU ($32); David Montgomery, DET vs. CAR ($27); James Conner, ARI vs. CIN ($19)

Against the Grainers:

Isiah Pacheco, KC at MIN ($18); Dameon Pierce, HOU at ATL ($14); Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. KC ($13)

WIDE RECEIVER

Puka Nacua, LAR vs. PHI ($32): Nacua has delivered unprecedented success over his first four NFL games, turning 52 targets into a league-leading 39 catches, as well as 501 yards and one touchdown. If Cooper Kupp needs another week to recover from his hamstring injury, Nacua should continue to vacuum up all the targets he can handle, especially since the Rams will need to score points to keep up with the Eagles in a game with an over/under of 50.5 points -- second-most in the Sunday Baller slate after Kansas City-Minnesota (52.5). Even if Kupp plays, Nacua should maintain a prominent role while seeing less defensive attention. Either way, there's a clear path to another productive outing from the rookie sensation against a Philadelphia secondary that's tied for the most receiving TDs allowed to WRs at six.

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN at ARI ($30): Chase came into the season largely viewed as the consensus No. 2 fantasy WR behind Jefferson. Joe Burrow's calf injury has cut into the star wideout's early production, but it's still just a matter of time until he delivers one of his signature dominant performances, especially with Burrow's mobility slowly improving week by week. Chase had at least 119 yards and a touchdown four times last season and at least 130 yards with two TDs in two of those games. After scoring 22 TDs in his first two seasons, he has yet to find the end zone in 2023 despite seeing a robust 41 targets through four games. With Tee Higgins likely to be either out or limited due to a rib injury, Chase should see all the volume he can handle as the Bengals try to avoid falling into a 1-4 hole. Cincinnati's averaging just 12.3 PPG, but a Giants team that's averaging only 5.0 PPG in its other three games managed to score 31 points in Arizona.

DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at IND ($16): This is a nice buy-low opportunity on Hopkins. He carried questionable tags into Weeks 2 and 3 due to an ankle injury, but despite playing at less than 100 percent for much of the season, Hopkins easily leads the Titans with 31 targets while no teammate has more than 16. The Colts have struggled to defend No. 1 receivers, surrendering 101 yards and a TD to Calvin Ridley in Week 1, 146 yards and a TD to Nico Collins in Week 2, and 163 yards and a TD to Nacua in Week 4. Hopkins averaged 79.7 receiving yards per game as recently as last season for the Cardinals, and Tennessee's top option in the passing game should deliver a vintage performance against the underwhelming Indianapolis secondary.

Honorable Mentions:

Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. NYG ($23); Michael Pittman, IND vs. TEN ($22); Garrett Wilson, NYJ at DEN ($20)

Against the Grainers:

Nico Collins, HOU at ATL ($22); Skyy Moore, KC at MIN ($14); Michael Wilson, ARI vs. CIN ($12)

TIGHT END

Hayden Hurst, CAR at DET ($15): The Panthers are likely to be playing from behind as 10-point underdogs in Detroit, which should force Carolina into a pass-heavy game plan. Hurst should see a substantial share of those passes against a Lions defense that has allowed the most catches (32) and receiving yards (303) to tight ends. Carolina's offense has produced only two touchdowns in the three games started by struggling 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young, but Hurst is responsible for one of them.

Honorable Mentions:

Travis Kelce, KC at MIN ($33); Mark Andrews, BAL at PIT ($18); Zach Ertz, ARI vs. CIN ($15)

Against the Grainers: 

Darren Waller, NYG at MIA ($18); Dalton Schultz, HOU at ATL ($15); Dallas Goedert, PHI at LA ($13)

DEFENSE

Baltimore Ravens at PIT ($14): Steelers QB Kenny Pickett intends to play through a knee injury he suffered last week, but he may have to wear a brace and will likely have limited mobility. Pickett has yet to reach 250 passing yards in a game this season and has a pedestrian 4:4 TD:INT while Pittsburgh has yet to score a rushing TD in 2023, so any additional limitations caused by the injury could leave the Steelers struggling to put any points on the board against a stout Baltimore defense that's allowing just 14.5 PPG and has mustered at least four sacks in three of four games. The Ravens have also racked up four interceptions, a fumble recovery and a safety, and they carry limited risk at this valuation.

Honorable Mentions:

New Orleans Saints at NE ($18); Detroit Lions vs. CAR ($16); Houston Texans at ATL ($13)

Against the Grainers: 

Kansas City at MIN ($17); Miami Dolphins vs. NYG ($16); Denver Broncos vs. NYJ ($12)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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