It sure seems like the NFL screwed up the 40 times on Friday even worse than they did Thursday. The initially reported 40 times for receivers on Thursday – even when reported as 'Official' times – were all revised to higher times over the course of about 12 hours, and clearly on an ad hoc basis. Tyquan Thornton had his record-breaking 4.21 changed to a 4.28 several hours later, and Christian Watson's 4.27 turned into a 4.38. Then Alec Pierce had his 4.33 changed to 4.41 in the middle of the night. It's very obvious someone messed up in a way the combine did not expect and was not prepared to handle, and people were putting out fires all night trying to fix it.
What happened Friday appears to be an even dumber version of the same issue – the initially reported 40 times for running backs were all adjusted drastically, but this time the times were lowered. Michigan State back Kenneth Walker was initially credited with a totally adequate 4.46, now it's a 4.38. RB1 Breece Hall ran what was initially called a 4.44, now it says 4.39. Alabama's Brian Robinson had a 4.63, then all of a sudden it was a 4.53. It appears every single running back had their 40 time favorably adjusted.
Is it possible that the initial times were wrong – every single one – and the adjusted times are right, even though every single time improved substantially? Maybe, but it's highly unlikely. For the first time I can remember there is serious cause to doubt the integrity of these combine results, which is frustrating and an immense failure by combine administrators. Pro day data is always contaminated to some degree, but this year the pro days will have cleaner data than the combine. Someone should write a feature story about this blunder.
Anyway, even if the times are all botched, they are still likely correct relative to each other, ie Notre Dame's Kyren Williams (4.65) really is the slowest runner at the combine, and South Dakota State runner Pierre Strong (4.37) really is the fastest. The running backs of this class have clarified between themselves, even if we don't have clean enough data to compare them to other classes.
RB WINNERS
-Botched 40 times or not, Breece Hall is clearly the real deal and the undisputed RB1 of this class. He conventionally grades as a first-round running back talent, and in almost any RB draft class. This one just happens to be weak, but Hall has everything you look for and as a result would grade highly in any market. If his 4.38 official time is valid then that's great, but even the 4.44-second initial time is strong for Hall at 5-foot-11, 217 pounds. Hall has the same frame as Cam Akers but has better timed athleticism and was a better player in college. This is almost certainly an NFL starter, and there's reason to think he'll be a top-15 starter more specifically.
-Kenneth Walker is the clear RB2 of the draft, running a 4.38 (previously 4.46) at 5-foot-9, 211 pounds. Walker is not a particularly strong RB2, though, and might have been more like a mid-round target in a stronger draft. Walker won in college by breaking big plays as a runner, which means to win the same way at the NFL level he needs to have a similar relative speed advantage over the people chasing him. A 4.46 is just close enough to check the box – Darrell Henderson ran a 4.49 at 208 pounds and doesn't win in the NFL like he did in college, but Walker showed he has a bit more juice to work with even at a slightly higher weight.
-South Dakota State's Pierre Strong did well for himself. At 5-foot-10, 207 pounds he was credited with a 4.37-second 40 (initially 4.39), and his production at South Dakota State was exceptional. He really stands to benefit from this showing, especially given how weak the rest of the running back class is. Zach Zenner didn't pan out much in the NFL despite a good combine and elite college production, but Strong is definitely much faster and therefore might translate to the NFL a little better. In a running back class this weak, Strong might have ran himself into Day 2.
-Ty Chandler might have put himself on the mid-round radar after he was credited with a 4.38-second 40 (initially 4.45) at 5-foot-11, 204 pounds. Chandler was mostly effective throughout his four-year collegiate career, three of which were spent as a rotational back at Tennessee before earning a starting role at North Carolina in 2021. He never really stood out in an obvious way, but that's true in both a good and bad sense. Chandler seems mostly competent and fairly athletic, and sometimes that's all you need to provide quality RB reps in the NFL.
-Isiah Pacheco had some brutal numbers at Rutgers at times, but he opened eyes with his combine performance and might have established himself as one of the top mid-round sleepers as a result. Rutgers had maybe the worst passing game and offensive line of the past 50 years or so while Pacheco played there, so his low rushing average is actually good for the standards of that particular team. Pacheco showed substantial athletic upside with his combine testing, credited with a 4.37 40 (initially 4.45) at 5-foot-10, 216 pounds. It's hard to see why Pacheco would fail in the NFL if he gets the opportunity to play.
-Iowa's Tyler Goodson and Missouri's Tyler Badie are what people wanted Kyren Williams to be. Goodson (5-foot-9, 197 pounds) and Badie (5-foot-8, 197 pounds) are probably too small to play in a full-time role, but unlike Williams these other diminutive runners displayed NFL-caliber speed. Goodson was credited with a 4.42-second 40 (previously 4.47) and Badie was given a 4.45 (previously 4.49). Both players, especially Badie, are accomplished pass catchers.
RB LOSERS
-Kyren Williams was never on the radar for me – small running backs who post average rushing production almost categorically don't interest me. Williams got a good amount of cautious hype because of his pass catching, and he certainly has some skill there, but a 4.65-second 40 (probably more like a 4.72 like initially reported) means Williams might be too slow to even be a pass-catching specialist in the NFL. At 5-foot-9, 194 pounds, Williams simply isn't an NFL athlete. The absolute best-case scenario might be something like Myles Gaskin, but Gaskin was a much better prospect.
-Zonovan 'Bam' Knight of North Carolina State might have played into the Day 3 picture, but he checked in at a light 208 pounds and was credited with one of the slowest 40s of the day (4.58). You can probably skip him.
-Mississippi's Jerion Ealy was a good college player and has some skill to him, but at 5-foot-8, 189 pounds he's perilously small and lacks the speed to offset it (4.52 40, initially 4.55). Ealy seems like a practice squad type.
-Sincere McCormick of UTSA is your 2022 Jaret Patterson. Both players were extremely – convincingly – productive as workhorse players at their small schools, but both players have tiny frames and not much speed to offset the fact. At 5-foot-9, 205 pounds McCormick was credited with a 4.6-second 40. Like Patterson, McCormick probably has enough ability to hang around the NFL, which is more than what you can say for a few of the guys on this RB Losers list.
-Like McCormick, Tyler Allgeier still has a shot at the NFL level despite landing on the Loser list. His production at BYU is compelling, and it's possible to run away from people without specifically being fast. Still, it would have been nice to see Allgeier supplement his excellent production with standout athletic testing. Instead he was credited with a 4.60-second 40 (previously 4.64) at 5-foot-11, 224 pounds. That's a heavy frame and makes his 40 time excusable, but it leaves him more as a Samaje Perine kind of prospect than a clear standout.
