The combine's Thursday athletic testing featured a number of wild ups and down, including a dizzying number of retracted 40 times, and the wide receiver class in general has been shaken up as a result. In short, the wide receiver class might have conceded the possibility of a true high-volume alpha target but boosted its number of overall quality prospects.
WR WINNERS
-Christian Watson, North Dakota State (6-4, 208) ran a 4.36-second 40-yard dash with a 38.5-inch vertical and 136-inch broad jump. Watson is a bit skinny and his production at North Dakota State was never dominant, but athletic testing this explosive should put him in good position for a top-40 selection. He might be like an improved Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
-Ohio State wideouts Chris Olave (6-0, 187) and Garrett Wilson (6-0, 183) might have both locked themselves into first-round selections after running 4.39 and 4.38-second 40s, respectively.
-Western Michigan's Skyy Moore checked in with a sturdy build (5-foot-10, 195 pounds) before logging a 4.41-second 40, rounding out a strong and complete prospect profile. Moore was extremely productive at Western Michigan, where he kept up with two other NFL-quality receivers. He could go in the second round.
-Khalil Shakir of Boise State was both heavier and faster than expected. He tends to get overlooked but is a worthwhile top-40 pick after running a 4.43-second 40 at 196 pounds. Shakir might fit like Robert Woods at the NFL level.
-Bo Melton, Rutgers (5-11, 189) ran a 4.34-second 40-yard dash, putting him on the radar for Day 2 after a quietly productive career with the Scarlet Knights. Melton never had a chance to be flashy in Rutgers' cursed offenses, but he usually produced well above the team baseline and now he showed he has uncommon raw speed to work with, too.
-Velus Jones, Tennessee (6-0, 204) ran a 4.31-second 40-yard dash, giving him excellent speed testing to pair with a strong showing for the Volunteers in 2021. Jones could push for Day 2 thanks to his blistering speed.
-Alec Pierce, Cincinnati (6-3, 211) showed he'll continue to pose a deep threat in the NFL with a 4.41-second 40, adding excellent jumps too (40.5-inch vertical, 129-inch broad jump). Pierce should be a viable high-efficiency, mid-volume starter outside with a little luck. He's in the hunt for Day 2.
-Tyquan Thornton of Baylor and Memphis wideout Calvin Austin both burned up the 40, with Thornton logging a 4.28 and Austin a 4.32, but it's important to remember they are both impractically small. Thornton is very skinny at 6-foot-2, 180 pounds, while Austin is either 5-foot-7 or 5-foot-8 at 170 pounds. Despite their blistering 40 times, they are only mid-round possibilities and likely part-time players in the NFL.
-Although he didn't run due to an ankle injury, USC WR Drake London checked one box with a strong weigh-in, checking in at 6-foot-4, 219 pounds. London probably won't post great numbers at the eventual USC Pro day, but with a frame like that you can get away with otherwise mediocre testing numbers.
WR LOSERS
-Treylon Burks, Arkansas (6-2, 225) is at risk of falling into the second round after disappointing with a 4.55-second 40 – a number a good 0.15 seconds slower than what was hoped for. Burks is still a very good receiver prospect overall and remains in the hunt to be the WR1, but at the very least he needs to worry about going later than the Ohio State duo at this point.
-David Bell, Purdue (6-1, 212) isn't big enough to be running a 4.65-second 40, and especially not in a class this strong. Bell's production at Purdue is fantastic and he remains a good prospect, but Laquon Treadwell and Kelvin Harmon had strong production going for them, too. Then they ran 4.6s. Treadwell still went in the first round but badly struggled in the NFL, while Harmon fell to the sixth round and has yet to get his career going.
-Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama (6-1, 194) ran only a 4.49-second 40-yard dash, which isn't fast enough to threaten downfield the way he did in college. Tolbert's production says he can't be counted out, but he might be looking more at Round 5 than Day 2.
-Kentucky big-play machine Wan'Dale Robinson posted a solid 4.44-second 40, but measuring in at 5-foot-8 after previously being listed at 5-foot-11 is brutal. At 5-foot-8 Robinson faces a substantial risk of a snap cap at the NFL level, and as a result he might be drifting toward the third round.
-George Pickens, Georgia (6-3, 195) is still a strong prospect, but he probably won't go in the first round after weighing in light and posting just a slightly above average 40 (4.47 seconds). He should still go in the first 40 picks or so, though.
OTHER NOTES
-Penn State WR Jahan Dotson (5-foot-11, 178 pounds) was neither a winner nor loser -- his frame was light, but his 4.43-second 40 was good enough to check the box otherwise. On a day where a lot of wide receivers slid up and down the board Dotson stayed still, right on the fringe of the top 40. He's still a very good prospect.
-Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder (6-foot-3, 211 pounds) checked in a bit light but made a charge for the first 40 picks with very good athletic testing. Ridder ran a 4.52-second 40 while adding a 36-inch vertical and 127-inch broad jump. Ridder is in the hunt to be the second quarterback selected after heavy QB1 favorite Malik Willis of Liberty, who did not do any athletic testing.
-QB Kenny Pickett (6-3 and 1/4, 217 pounds) checked in with a good height/weight, but as expected his hands checked in at a concerning 8 ½ inches. Quarterbacks don't specifically need big hands to succeed in the NFL, but there are demonstrable ball security risks that run higher the lower a player ranks below league average. Pickett represents the extreme – it seems only Michael Vick otherwise had hands that small in recorded league history, but Vick also ran a 4.33 and had what would rank as the league's second-strongest current arm behind only Josh Allen. Vick was also a more effective collegiate quarterback than Pickett, or at least Vick was much more effective in Years 2 and 3 than Pickett and otherwise did not play a fourth or fifth season, the last of which proved to be Pickett's mammoth 2021 breakout. While Pickett's prospect profile is well short of what Vick's was, Pickett nonetheless appears headed for the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, perhaps even in the first 10 picks. Teams like Detroit (2), Carolina (6), the Giants (7) and Atlanta (8) figure to take a close look.
-Tight ends Daniel Bellinger (San Diego State), Jelani Woods (Virginia) and Chigoziem Okonkwo (Maryland) were all winners in athletic testing, with Bellinger (4.63 at 253 pounds) and especially Woods (4.61 40 at 259 pounds) posting standout numbers while also weighing in among the heaviest tight ends. Okonkwo (238 pounds) is a much smaller category of tight end, but his 4.52-second 40 stands out enough to ease the concerns of his light frame. Unfortunately, none of these three players were among the most productive tight ends in this class. The guys who put the biggest numbers on the field were less fortunate in their combine testing...
-Greg Dulcich (UCLA) and Cole Turner (Nevada) were much more productive pass catchers in college than Bellinger, Woods or Okonkwo, but Dulcich and Turner had the worst athletic testing of the five. Dulcich (6-foot-4, 243 pounds) and Turner (6-foot-6, 246 pounds) both checked in light for the position, but their respective 4.7-second and 4.76-second 40-yard dash times did nothing to offset their low weight grades.
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Assuming the NFL can get any of its 40 times reported correctly, look for a breakdown of Friday's running back workouts later today or, even if more overnight time changes are in order, perhaps early Saturday morning.
