Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Steelers vs. Bears

The Bears (3-5) probably won't trick anyone into believing they have playoff potential, but the Steelers (4-3) on the other side can keep their playoff hopes alive with a win here at home. The over/under sits at just 39 at press time, with Pittsburgh favored by seven points. Much of this game – both in the DFS sense and betting interests generally – might be swayed by the status of David Montgomery, who might be activated off IR in anticipation of this game. If Montgomery can return from his knee injury it would change the complexion of the Bears offense, as well as affect the strategy the Steelers defense would use. For now, it seems like Montgomery is headed in the right direction.

QUARTERBACKS

Ben Roethlisberger ($10600 DK, $15000 FD) isn't what he used to be, but he's as wily as ever and might be able to identify and attack weak spots in the Bears defense, especially with the Bears down two of their top defenders (pass rusher Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson). Roethlisberger's prospects in general might be on the upswing thanks to the emergence of rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth, who's giving the Steelers a new type of threat that Eric Ebron (ankle, out) couldn't provide previously. It's helping Roethlisberger in situations where he might otherwise find himself in a stalemate with the defense. There's also reason to believe the Bears defense is ill-suited to countering Pittsburgh's wide receiver talent. This generally looks like a favorable matchup for Roethlisberger

Justin Fields ($10400 DK, $14000 FD) has youth and present athletic talent in his favor, but he's not nearly as well-situated as Roethlisberger. This is a road game against one of the league's most time-tested defenses in the national spotlight, and the team around him isn't especially functional. With that said, the Steelers aren't forcing turnovers yet this year (two interceptions), so if Fields gets a little help and if he maintains his composure he could avoid the landmines the Steelers are otherwise planting for him in anticipation of his arrival. Fields' rare athleticism and the rushing upside that comes with it is probably his main draw – his speed isn't the kind defenders can recover from if they pursue incorrectly, and if the Bears can get Fields moving it might give him a prayer of eluding otherwise terrifying defenders like Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt.
 

RUNNING BACKS

Najee Harris ($12400 DK, $16500 FD) is well worth captain status consideration in this, one of the heaviest workload roles in the NFL and as a home favorite against a potentially overmatched rookie quarterback. The Steelers might have the ball a lot in run-viable situations, against a defense ill-suited to stopping them. But even if Harris doesn't specifically see volume as a runner, he's in that case a strong bet to pick up a lot of pass-catching work to account for that. It's also plenty possible that he sees volume both as a runner and pass catcher. The Bears only have one played capable of neutralizing Harris: Roquan Smith. If they get a blocker on him, Harris could have room for leisurely running. Benny Snell, Kalen Ballage and Anthony McFarland are the backup options, but all of them are liable to play zero snaps, and none of them is likely to play more than five or so unless the game really gets out of hand. Snell might be the best clock-killing option in such a scenario.

Even if David Montgomery ($8400 DK, $13000 FD) returns as hoped, the Bears backfield should be more of a shared workload between him and the impressive rookie sixth-round pick Khalil Herbert ($8200 DK, $12000 FD). It's not secret that the Bears need to protect Fields from overexposure in this hostile road environment, and the talents of these two running backs might be their best shot at doing so. The Steelers know this and will likely prepare accordingly, but if the Bears can just keep Cam Heyward from blowing up the run (easier said than done) then the talents of Montgomery and Herbert should speak for themselves in the open field. The scenario in which either of these runners does particularly well might be one where the Steelers are at substantial risk of the upset.
 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Diontae Johnson ($11200 DK, $13500 FD) and Chase Claypool ($9000 DK, $11500 FD) both project well here against a Chicago defense that might be its weakest at corner, specifically in the depth sense. Jaylon Johnson is a good player, but the Bears are one of the best targets for fantasy wide receivers all the same. Only the Titans are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, and if the Bears don't improve on their peripherals (67.1 percent catch rate, 9.9 YPT) then they will eventually overtake the Titans as the best matchup for receivers. Given Sunday night's result, that shift has arguably already occurred. James Washington ($5200 DK, $7000 FD) is a capable third receiver and can beat corners like these, too, if the Steelers give him the shot. The emerging Pat Freiermuth ($7000 DK, $8000 FD) is well worth consideration as well, but it's worth noting that the Bears have been very stingy against tight ends this year, which is concerning for Freiermuth and backup Zach Gentry ($1800 DK, $6000 FD).

Allen Robinson ($7200 DK, $10000 FD) has had an agonizing season so far and there's no guarantee it gets any better here. Justin Fields is a rookie quarterback in a uniquely hostile road setting, and a guy like Cameron Heyward can single-handedly wreck the Bears offensive line even if T.J. Watt doesn't. On the other hand, 'good' matchups haven't been any more fruitful for Robinson than the 'bad' ones, so perhaps there is some utility in his potentially lowered ownership percentage in a game where there might not be cause for projecting him worse than usual, but we might be debating the difference between nothing and nothing. Darnell Mooney ($6400 DK, $10500 FD) has somehow done better than Robinson, perhaps if only from seeing less attention from defenses. If so, that may or may not continue, especially if Mooney keeps making plays and Robinson doesn't. Cole Kmet ($5800 DK, $7500 FD) is likely to be Chicago's third-busiest route runner, though WR3 Marquise Goodwin ($4200 DK, $6500 FD) and backup tight end Jesse James ($3000 DK, $6000 FD) are also candidates to play 30 snaps or so, though James also might see his playing time mostly disappear in light of the return of Jimmy Graham ($200 DK, $4000 FD) from the COVID list.
 

KICKERS

Chris Boswell ($3800 DK, $9000 FD) should be fine from the concussion he suffered last week, and if so he projects rather well in this game as a comfortable home favorite. He has double-digit fantasy points in each of his last two home games, and Boswell has the leg to strike from long range. Cairo Santos ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) is playing well for his own part this year, but he might need a dud game from the Pittsburgh offense and defense both to find himself in likely field-goal kicking situations. 
 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Steelers ($5000 DK) defense is expensive but arguably worth the price. Justin Fields is stepping into a big spotlight in one of the most antagonistic settings the NFL has to offer, and the team around him is often ridiculous. Fields could play poorly for his own part, but the Steelers defense might cash in even if he doesn't. The offensive line can fall apart, Matt Nagy can put his own weird twist on the game for no real reason, and the Steelers defense is just dangerous generally in situations like these. The Bears ($2600 DK) defense doesn't have nearly as much in its favor, especially without players like Khalil Mack and Eddie Jackson, but the showing of the Tennessee defense against the Rams is a reminder of how utterly chaotic these one-game slates can be.