This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
After a red-hot start to the year the Buffalo Bills have been dealt some injury curve balls while embarking on a perilous three-game road stretch, and after two consecutive losses they have to finish the road trip against the desperate but dangerous Jets, who are in the midst of an organizational tailspin after firing former coach Robert Saleh. Now at 2-3 under interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, the Jets are at once disheveled yet dangerous; a cornered but rabid animal that the Bills find themselves staring down. Perhaps the game might be less than clean, but the urgency should be high as the playoff ambitions of two of the league's top quarterbacks rest in the balance. The Bills are favored by 1.0 point with the over/under at 41.0.
QUARTERBACK
That the weather might be windy shouldn't in itself matter for Josh Allen ($11000 DK, $16500 FD), whose railgun velocity cuts through almost any sub-hurricane winds. What's liable to hold back Allen is his supporting cast against a tough defense – the Bills wideout rotation was thin by design going into this year, so the fact that lead wideout Khalil Shakir (ankle) might be out again could be a big deal. Allen himself is potentially a bit nicked up after taking hits to the chest and ankle against the Texans in Week 5. It's still exceedingly difficult to fade Allen on a single-game slate, or at least to do so in this case would be to project an extremely low-scoring game,
After a red-hot start to the year the Buffalo Bills have been dealt some injury curve balls while embarking on a perilous three-game road stretch, and after two consecutive losses they have to finish the road trip against the desperate but dangerous Jets, who are in the midst of an organizational tailspin after firing former coach Robert Saleh. Now at 2-3 under interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, the Jets are at once disheveled yet dangerous; a cornered but rabid animal that the Bills find themselves staring down. Perhaps the game might be less than clean, but the urgency should be high as the playoff ambitions of two of the league's top quarterbacks rest in the balance. The Bills are favored by 1.0 point with the over/under at 41.0.
QUARTERBACK
That the weather might be windy shouldn't in itself matter for Josh Allen ($11000 DK, $16500 FD), whose railgun velocity cuts through almost any sub-hurricane winds. What's liable to hold back Allen is his supporting cast against a tough defense – the Bills wideout rotation was thin by design going into this year, so the fact that lead wideout Khalil Shakir (ankle) might be out again could be a big deal. Allen himself is potentially a bit nicked up after taking hits to the chest and ankle against the Texans in Week 5. It's still exceedingly difficult to fade Allen on a single-game slate, or at least to do so in this case would be to project an extremely low-scoring game, and one the Bills would probably be losing. Particularly with James Cook (toe) questionable, Allen might do even more running than usual.
Aaron Rodgers ($9000 DK, $13000 FD)has had a rough go of it in 2024, and the firing of Saleh doesn't do anything obviously helpful to project a change for the better. Rodgers is clearly capable of good play and he has some real weapons around him, but things have looked so difficult for Rodgers in every game outside of his win against New England. It does help, however, that the Bills will be without top defensive tackle Ed Oliver and potentially standout slot rover Taron Johnson. If Rodgers has a cashing game for the slate then it would bode very well for the Jets' chances of winning.
RUNNING BACK
The Jets expressed an intention to commit to the ground game after Saleh's firing, even though Saleh had little or no role in handling the offense previously. Regardless, if they mean it the Jets would prove it by giving the ball to Breece Hall ($9400 DK, $13500 FD), their likely best player on offense. A truly robust running game would also have room for power/passing-down specialist Braelon Allen ($5400 DK, $9500 FD), but it should be understood that the talent levels of the two aren't comparable – Hall is one of the best in the league, and if the Jets want to win they would prove their intentions by feeding Hall in this game.
James Cook (toe) ($10200 DK, $14000 FD) is questionable after logging just one limited practice all week, which would normally imply that even if he plays he won't play a full workload and might not look like his usual self. If Cook can't go then Ty Johnson ($5200 DK, $7500 FD) and Ray Davis ($3000 DK, $7000 FD) would need to play more. Both backs have seen reps on passing downs, but otherwise Johnson is best understood as a linear speed specialist whereas Davis is the better power and volume option between the two. The Jets defense isn't easy to run on, but it might be easier to run on them than throw, especially if Shakir isn't active.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Garrett Wilson ($10000 DK, $145000 FD) had a huge game in Week 5 even though the Jets suffered the ugly loss. Expecting another 23 targets would be silly, but something in the double digits is probably something the Jets should aim for. The Bills feature big, physical corners who would rather not turn and run, especially not against someone as fast and quick as Wilson. Allen Lazard ($7200 DK, $10500 FD) might remain a better bet for production in this game than Mike Williams ($5600 DK, $8000 FD), especially if the Bills are without Taron Johnson. The backup Cam Lewis is only 5-foot-9 and probably can't defend the rim against Lazard. Williams would probably more so run on the outside against corners who are built to defend big wideouts like him. Tight end Tyler Conklin ($4000 DK, $8000 FD) should play but is technically listed as questionable with a hip issue. Conklin's understudy is Jeremy Ruckert ($1200 DK, $5000 FD), who might be a good player in his own right. If Conklin is out or limited Ruckert could become more useful as a punt play. Speedy slot wideout Xavier Gipson ($600 DK, $6000 FD) only played two snaps last week but is capable of popping up again at some point.
If Khalil Shakir (toe) ($8600 DK, $11500 FD) can't play and play to his customary standards then it seemingly leaves Curtis Samuel ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) as the primary slot wideout for Buffalo. Samuel couldn't get anything going in Week 5, so it's difficult to tell whether he can get going in this offense after a rough start to the season. Keon Coleman ($6800 DK, $10000 FD) and Mack Hollins ($2400 DK, $7500 FD) are likely your two primary boundary wideouts for Buffalo, and of the two Coleman is clearly the more talented pass catcher. Hollins can pop up from time to time and certainly could in this setting, but generally he needs some luck to make a play as a receiver. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($2000 DK, $6500 FD) and to a lesser extent Tyrell Shavers also might see playing time.
Rather than any of Buffalo's wide receivers, their best candidate to lead the team in receiving production might be tight end Dalton Kincaid ($8200 DK, $11000 FD), who the Bills need to give more playing time. It's clear that Buffalo cannot budget a competitive passing game without giving Kincaid 50-plus snaps per game, yet they've diluted his playing time to subsidize usage for Dawson Knox ($1600 DK, $6500 FD) each week, keeping Kincaid's snap count under 40 each of the past four weeks. Kincaid has 18 targets on his last 105 snaps – no other Buffalo route runner can provide that target volume and so the Bills likely face the choice of giving Kincaid more usage or raising their risk of loss. Knox only has three catches on the year, but could see more pass-catching opportunities himself if the Bills become disillusioned with their wideout options. TE3 Quintin Morris is purely a punt play and isn't guaranteed anything.
KICKER
If it's windy then it might be harder on the kickers, but both Tyler Bass ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) of Buffalo and Greg Zuerlein ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) of the Jets are likely above-average NFL kickers.
With that said, Zuerlein has shown potential indications of decline at soon-to-be 37 years old, missing his one attempt from beyond 40 yards this year and attempting none beyond 50. The wind presumably can't help any of this, but perhaps Zuerlein has just been dealt poor game scripts to this point. It's difficult to see the Bills racing to a big lead such that the Jets need to abandon the field goal game, and meanwhile the Jets might be desperate for points.
Similar logic could apply to Bass, whose struggling Bills offense probably isn't going to fix everything in this of all settings. Their defense should keep them in the game including with potentially favorable field position, but if the offense can't convert such opportunities into touchdowns then Bass might bridge the gap for Buffalo.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Given the respective struggles of the two offenses and the projected wind, both defenses could be cash-viable in this slate.
The Jets ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) are likely the better overall group between the two, if only because they have fewer injuries than the Bills defense does, but it's also probably true that Allen is more intimidating than Rodgers. Allen has yet to throw an interception this year – that certainly has to change at some point – so between that detail and the injuries to Shakir/Cook this could be a rare spot where the defense facing Allen is worth picking in fantasy.
The Bills ($4600 DK, $8500 FD) really wish they had Oliver and Johnson, because their respective absences do a lot of damage to the defense. Oliver's absence in the context of the Jets' supposed renewed focus on the run game could be bad timing for the Bills, because if Hall gets going the Jets offense could all of a sudden look lively at Buffalo's expense. But the Jets clearly have a lot to figure out in the meantime, and the Bills usually play smart defense under the direction of Sean McDermott.
