SATURDAY
Carolina (+2.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 44.0 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST
This isn't quite a win-and-they're in game for the Bucs — they'd still be eliminated from the playoffs if the Falcons win Sunday to create a three-way tie atop the NFC South at 8-9 — but it is for the Panthers, who are the only team in the division with a shot at finishing above. 500. Carolina's been alternating wins and losses since mid-October, so they're in rhythm for a win after falling to Seattle last week, but Raymond James Stadium hasn't exactly been a welcoming environment for the Panthers in recent years. Bryce Young was held to a season-low 54 passing yards by the Seahawks, snapping a streak of five solid or better performances in which he'd completed 66.7 percent of his passes with a 7.8 YPA and 10:2 TD:INT, and the third-year QB has overall taken a noticeable, and maybe overdue, step forward in 2025. Rico Dowdle needs 14 more rushing yards to set a career high, but he'd probably settle for half that — with seven more scrimmage yards he cashes in a $1 million bonus in his contract. The former Cowboys' slowed considerably down the stretch, though, and over the last six games he's managed just 3.5 yards per carry and one rushing TD. Overall the Panthers haven't done anything particularly well this season, and if they make the playoffs they'll be the only team in the field with a negative point differential, at minus-67 coming into the weekend. In arguably the NFL's weakest division, though, not being terrible at anything either might be enough.
The Buccaneers are in a tailspin, losing four consecutive games and seven of their last eight, and they'll lost control of their own destiny as a result. Even if they win this game, if the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, the Panthers will still win the division. Tampa Bay's decline has come in large part because Baker Mayfield is barely standing. Injuries along the offensive line have led to him being sacked multiple times in five of the last six games, and while there's no chance he won't play Saturday, he's dealing with issues to both shoulders as well as his right knee. The veteran QB has been picked off eight times in the last seven games while also losing a couple fumbles, but Mayfield sucked it up to throw for 346 yards and two touchdowns last week in Miami, with the defense instead failing to stop rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers when it counted. On paper, the Bucs have the more talented roster, but without Mayfield 100 percent healthy, it may not matter.
Key Info
CAR injury report: TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (IR, lower leg), RG Robert Hunt (IR, biceps), DE Tershawn Wharton (questionable, hamstring), LB Trevin Wallace (IR, shoulder), LB Claudin Cherelus (out, calf)
TB injury report: LG Ben Bredeson (IR, knee), RG Cody Mauch (IR, knee), EDGE Calijah Kancey (IR, pectoral), CB Jamel Dean (out, shoulder)
Slight lean: WR Jalen Coker (TB 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight lean: TE Cade Otton (CAR 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight fade: WR Tetairoa McMillan (TB third in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: WR Chris Godwin (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 10-30 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 TB, average score 28-17 TB, average margin of victory 15 points. The Buccaneers have won five straight home meetings in this rivalry by an average score of 34-18
The Scoop: Dowdle gets his bonus and more, putting together 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Young throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Coker. Bucky Irving responds with 100 combined yards and a score. Mayfield guts it out, throwing for less than 200 yards but hitting Otton and Mike Evans for touchdowns. Buccaneers 24-17
Seattle at San Francisco (+1.5), o/u 48.0 – Saturday, 8 p.m. EST
The Seahawks' 17-13 home loss to the Niners way back in Week 1 suddenly looms very large. As a result, this game not only decides the NFC West winner, it also determines who gets the No. 1 seed in the conference, with home-field advantage and a first-round bye along with it. Seattle's done just about everything they could to this point to lock up that top seed, winning six consecutive games, including the last two over the Rams and Panthers. Mike Macdonald's been leaning more heavily on his run game lately, which might be smart given Sam Darnold's reputation for folding like a cheap umbrella in the clutch. Darnold's committed four turnovers the last two weeks against just three TDs passes, while Kenneth Walker has piled up 221 scrimmage yards and a TD, and Zach Charbonnet has 176 scrimmage yards and three rushing touchdowns. The Hawks defense, meanwhile, has been outstanding, holding four of its last opponents to 16 points or less, with only the Rams making a dent. During the six-game winning streak, Seattle's allowed an average of 16.0 points and 278.7 yards while racking up 11 takeaways and 12 sacks. If Darnold can work through his jitters, this looks like one of the most dangerous teams in a wide-open playoff field this year. If not, well, somebody's got to be one and done in the wild-card round, and his contract isn't too onerous to cut bait on after 2026.
How the 49ers are even in position to make the playoffs, much less claim the top seed, will be one of the great football mysteries of 2025. They should have been done months ago given all their injuries, but here they are in the final week of the regular season with a real chance to have home-field advantage straight through to Super Bowl LX, which will be held at Levi's Stadium. San Francisco has also won six straight, shellacking five straight opponents until last week's narrow escape against the Bears. Since a Week 14 bye, Brock Purdy and the Niners offense has been the most dangerous unit in the league, averaging a stunning 42.3 points and 455.3 yards over the last three games. Christian McCaffrey needs four more receptions to reach 100 for the third time in his career, and the first time since his Carolina days. He'd also reach 1,000 receiving yards for the second time with 110 yards, though the last time he hit for triple digits was in Week 16 of the 2019 campaign. (For 2026 shoppers, he's also one touch shy of 400, and things haven't tended to go well for CMac the next season any time he's gotten 300-plus.) A minor ankle sprain kept George Kittle out last week, but in the six games before that he's erupted for 40-499-5 on 47 targets, while Jauan Jennings has gotten into the end zone in five consecutive games and scored eight TDs in the last eight games. DC Robert Saleh's unit has been inconsistent but mostly respectable, which is itself a minor miracle given the talent missing from the roster. Hey, you know who could use a strong defensive mind on the sidelines with a proven track record of scheming around a lack of talent? The Je ... ehh, right. Never mind.
Key Info
SEA injury report: WR Rashid Shaheed (questionable, concussion), WR Tory Horton (IR, shin), LT Charles Cross (questionable, hamstring), S Coby Bryant (questionable, knee)
SF injury report: RB Christian McCaffrey (questionable, back), WR Ricky Pearsall (questionable, knee), TE George Kittle (questionable, ankle), LT Trent Williams (questionable, hamstring), LG Ben Bartch (IR, foot), EDGE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), LB Fred Warner (IR, ankle), CB Upton Stout (questionable, concussion)
Strong lean: WR Cooper Kupp (SF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: TE George Kittle (SEA 27th in receiving yards per game allowed to TEs)
Slight fade: TE AJ Barner (SF fifth in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong fade: RB Christian McCaffrey (SEA first in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards allowed to RBs, t-first in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Strong fade: WR Jauan Jennings (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR1)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 50-60 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 7-5 SF, average score 26-21 SF, average margin of victory 10 points. The Seahawks had lost three straight meetings at Levi's Stadium before a 20-17 victory in Week 11 of last season
The Scoop: Walker leads the SEA backfield with 90 yards and a score, while Charbonnet adds a touchdown. Darnold throws for 240 yards and a TD to Jaxon Smith-Njigba but gets picked off twice. McCaffrey churns out 130 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Purdy throws for 270 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Kittle and Skyy Moore. 49ers 34-30
Last week's record: 9-7, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2025 record: 163-92-1 (.639), 135-113-8 ATS (.544), 131-124-1 o/u (.514)
