Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Jets vs. Chargers

The competitive ambitions of the Jets were of course dealt a cruel setback when Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles' tendon in Week 1, and there's no doubt the team is much worse with Zach Wilson at quarterback instead. And yet the 4-3 Jets find themselves very much in the hunt for the AFC East divisional title, especially after the Bills and Dolphins both lost in Week 9. The visiting Chargers (3-4) are not exactly intimidating, moreover, making it a real possibility the Jets leave this game 5-3 and just one game behind Miami for the division lead. The Chargers have a major advantage at quarterback with Justin Herbert magnitudes better than Wilson, but the Jets have the more frightening defense and the better run game. The over/under is down to 39.5 from its 42.5 opening, and the Chargers are favored by 3.5 points.

QUARTERBACK

Even if the Chargers lose and even if he has a down game, Justin Herbert ($11800 DK, $17000 FD) is difficult to fade in a showdown slate where (A) the other team lacks a viable passing game and (B) the Chargers lack pass catchers and a run game. Maybe Herbert struggles, but even if he does it's unlikely that any more than two Chargers get especially close to his point total. The Jets have a lively front four and the Chargers have weak pass-catching personnel in light of the season-ending injury to Mike Williams, so if Herbert thrives in this setting it might go down as one of his more impressive showings in what has already been a highly impressive beginning to his career.

Zach Wilson ($8800 DK, $12000 FD) has been less impressive, yet in this low-scoring slate he still isn't exactly cheap. It's a testament to how few alternatives there are – Wilson has just one game with more than 14.1 fantasy points, which was 18.2 points against the Chiefs in Week 4. Since then Wilson has produced 9.6, 10.9 and the 14.1 points in the three games since. The Chargers defense isn't exactly solid but it does present its share of dangers, especially in the pass rush. If Wilson enjoys a strong game here then the fact alone would probably make the Jets the favorites, yet you'll notice the spread remains safely against the Jets' favor even as the home team.

RUNNING BACK

Austin Ekeler ($12000 DK, $16500 FD) has mostly struggled as a runner in 2023 and is unlikely to find much open space against a Jets defense with one of the gnarliest front sevens in the league. The Jets have been somewhat lenient against the pass-catching production of opposing running backs, though, and Ekeler is of course a uniquely dangerous threat in that capacity. Plus, with no Mike Williams or Joshua Palmer the Chargers passing game heads into this game with a great deal of slack that's just begging for Ekeler to pick it up. Who knows whether he succeeds, but target volume should be almost guaranteed for Ekeler even if he can't get much going on the ground specifically. Joshua Kelley ($2600 DK, $7500 FD) looms as a threat to take carries between the tackles, though he might need a short-yardage touchdown or an unlikely long run to boost his yardage total against a tough Jets run defense.

Breece Hall ($10400 DK, $14000 FD) isn't a guarantee to post strong numbers in this game, but (A) the matchup is plenty viable and (B) if Hall doesn't have a big game then the Jets are in serious trouble. The Jets passing game has been reduced to a low-ambition, mostly one-read offense and you can only scale that up so much. If the Jets are to get where they need to go, Hall's production is an almost mandatory requirement. Dalvin Cook ($1400 DK, $6500 FD) has played only eight snaps in each of the last two weeks, which is even less than the snap tally for passing-down specialist Michael Carter ($200 DK, $6500 FD).

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

The two clear headliners among route runners in this game are Keenan Allen ($11600 DK, $15000 FD) for the Chargers and Garrett Wilson ($9600 DK, $13000 FD) for the Jets. For either passing game to enjoy even a slight amount of success it is nearly mandatory that the lead wideout in either case propel that outcome mostly on their own. The secondary targets are mostly non-viable in each case – the Chargers because they don't have enough route-running personnel, and the Jets because Zach Wilson is too limited as a passer to support multiple pass catchers. Of course, a big game from either quarterback is far from a mandatory condition for either lead wideout to produce. Indeed, there's a chance that Allen and Wilson leave very few scraps for their teammates.

With that said, Quentin Johnston ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) heads into this game with a great deal of slack for the claiming. The Chargers offense is pass happy in all scenarios, regardless of means or circumstances. The results may well be poor, but they will throw the ball regardless. If it lands anywhere other than Allen or Ekeler then Johnston is arguably the top candidate to come in third. Gerald Everett ($5600 DK, $7500 FD) had touchdowns in consecutive games before missing last week with a hip injury, but he should be back in the starting lineup for this one. If not Everett then perhaps Donald Parham ($3200 DK, $7000 FD) might see some pass-catching opportunities at tight end. The Chargers otherwise have fringe prospects like Simi Fehoko ($600 DK, $5500 FD) and Derius Davis ($200 DK, $6000 FD) logging most of the remaining route-running reps. Fehoko scored a touchdown last week and might see 20-plus snaps with Palmer out.

The secondary Jets route runners are better than those of the Chargers, but the limitations at quarterback make it difficult to tell whether Allen Lazard ($5200 DK, $8500 FD) or Tyler Conklin ($3000 DK, $7000 FD) will see much in the way of viable targets after Garrett gets his share. Lazard is questionable with a knee injury, moreover, and Randall Cobb has been comically unproductive after Lazard. Xavier Gipson ($200 DK, $5500 FD) might be about as good of a bet for production as Cobb.

KICKER

Cameron Dicker ($4600 DK, $8500 FD) lacks the range to strike regularly from beyond 50 yards, but from closer than 50 he almost never misses. It's possible that Dicker is the most accurate kicker in the league from under 50. Whether he gets into range in this game is subject to the general success of the Chargers offense, but also the Jets offense. If the Jets defense spends a lot of time on short fields then the Chargers could find themselves leaning on Dicker, who has thrice gone over double-digit fantasy points this year, including 16 points last week.

Though less accurate than Dicker, it's Greg Zuerlein ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) who boasts the most range of the two kickers in this contest. That ability to chase 50-yard attempts gives Zuerlein a notable amount of theoretical upside, Zuerlein has only attempted two kicks from beyond 50 yards this year, but in 202 the number was 11. Even with the Jets offense sputtering, Zuerlein is only three weeks removed from a two-game stretch where he totaled 32 fantasy points.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Both defenses in this game, especially the Jets ($4200 DK, $9500 FD), have some notable amount of talent at their disposal. The Jets defense is straightforwardly one of the best in the league, and one that could very well bring out one of the worst games of the year for Justin Herbert. The problem for the Jets defense is that their own passing game is so bad that it sometimes leaves the Jets in worse field positioning, making their task a bit of an uphill climb. If the Jets defense isn't hanged out to dry by their own offense then they could end up on some cashing showdown lineups.

The Chargers ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) are not particularly close to the overall defensive caliber of the Jets, but the Chargers are still in an opportune position as they face Zach Wilson, who remains one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. The Chargers boast one of the most frightening three-pitch edge rushes in the league between Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and Tuli Tuipulotu. If the Jets run game is contained then it could tee up the pass rush to make things difficult for Wilson.