Football Draft Kit: NFFC RotoWire Online Championship Breakdown

The $200K grand prize, 12-team PPR contest, otherwise known as the NFFC RotoWire Online Championship took place Monday. Scoring rules are fairly standard in this format, though passing touchdowns reward six points instead of the typical four. For the first time since I started competing in this format three years ago, the NFFC kindly upped the ante to a "Beat Joe Bartel" version, where fellow users who somehow accomplish the impossible task of finishing ahead of me in the standings will get a RotoWire subscription on top of bragging rights. 

Here are the results:

1.2 - Dalvin Cook

There's not much to discuss with this selection. Cook at No. 2 is pretty boilerplate at this point in fantasy draft season, as is backing him up with Alexander Mattison later in the draft. But instead of hemming and hawing over my pick, I'd rather direct your attention to a couple of stunning selections later in the first. I don't know what was more shocking: seeing Travis Kelce go right after at No. 3, Aaron Jones following that at No. 4 or the combo of Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry slipping to seventh and 10th overall, respectively.

I see the upside scenario with Aaron Jones. The first four weeks last year, the Packers' running back was essentially a top-two fantasy back, and with Aaron Rodgers returning for presumably one last season, theoretically the 26-year-old can continue to produce at the same level. Jones always seems to be injured (and of course he's dinged up as we speak) and I believe AJ Dillon is going to vacuum up more of workload vacated by Jamaal Williams than some might assume, but in these types of competitions finding the highest upside is sort of the name of the game.

In a full-point PPR format like the NFFC, Henry falling to No. 10 isn't a complete surprise, even though he's about as risk-free as it gets at running back. That the Henry manager also scooped up the free-falling Saquon Barkley in Round 2 shows just how chaotic that first round ended up being, and I think the Kamara slide also was a product of said dysfunction. Like my co-host on the Tuesday NFL podcast, Jake Letarski, suggested, sometimes that first round is less about getting value and more about getting "your guy."

But Travis Kelce at No. 3 overall is going to be an interesting case study the rest of the season. This is the "Beat Joe Bartel" league after all, so I've probably spent more time on others' drafts than I needed to, but stacking Kelce with Patrick Mahomes seemed like a logical conclusion after the pick was made, and was one I essentially predicted when planning out my third-round selection. The bigger question will be whether that duo can offset the natural deficiencies at RB and WR that this type of strategy can create. 

2.11 - D'Andre Swift

By pick 23 the draft had more or less gone back to standard ADP. The slides from Barkley, Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor were all fantastic values that I frustratingly couldn't capitalize on, and one of my favorite second-round picks, J.K. Dobbins, was snagged one spot before me. I wrote in my notes afterward that I felt fortunate Swift even made it back to me given the mini run on RBs to end the round. This Lions offense might be one of the worst in the league, but that's only going to benefit T.J. Hockenson and Swift, who should end up cannibalizing every underneath target. From a full-point PPR perspective, the second-year back might be one of the best bargains for his ADP.

3.11 - George Kittle

This ended up being my first pivot point of the draft. Obviously in hindsight if I had known Kyle Pitts would be available in Round 6 (more on that later) I would have went in a different direction. But I made a somewhat rookie mistake in assuming TEs would be drafted in the same ADP as other formats. For whatever the reason, NFFC drafts tend to see TEs fall (Kelce not withstanding), but at pick 35 I still think Kittle was value enough, and the move helped keep me out of the quagmire of TEs in Rounds 8 and later. 

4.2 - David Montgomery

I didn't want to get caught later chasing a handful of RB targets I was low on for the sake of depth, so I opted for Montgomery. I recognize it's a bizarre roster construction, especially in a fantasy environment that seems more open to zero-RB strategies than ever, but my thinking was to zig when a couple of other teams were zagging with WR-heavy approaches.

5.11 - Adam Thielen

It's a bit ironic that in my attempt to avoid RBs I was wary of, I instead had to pivot to WRs, but Thielen ended up being the best of a bad bunch. Seriously, look at the WRs drafted directly after. The veteran Vikings wide receiver is almost certainly going to see some touchdown regression, and it's entirely possible he could miss games given his stance on COVID-19 vaccination. But he clearly represents the end of a positional tier that I sorely lacked, so SKOL season it is.

6.02 - Kyle Pitts

This just ended up being too good of value. In hindsight if I would have known Pitts would fall to the sixth round, I would have went with Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, Cooper Kupp in that order instead of Kittle, but alas it is what it is. To be honest, my strategies in past years haven't worked the way I intended, so having flexibility at both RB and TE, even if it means forfeiting opportunity for more guaranteed scoring production, actually doesn't feel bad. Look, I wouldn't recommend this strategy. I felt relatively confident I could find value later on at WR, and especially in the NFFC with a free-agent auction, I know I can find depth RBs at a later date. But getting a possibly generational tight end at 62 was far too difficult to pass up and this is coming from a guy who is generally lower on Pitts than the rest of the fantasy community. The production will be there, and I'll just figure the rest out later.

7.11 - DJ Chark

I'm not entirely sure why we continue to see Chark slide, but given my need at WR I was pretty happy he made it back to my pick in the seventh. Sure, the 24-year-old struggled in Year 3 after piling together more than 1,000 yards catching passes from Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew. Part of those struggles were due to injuries, and I think a substantially larger portion than people are willing to give credit for could just be attributed to the moribund nature of that franchise with Doug Marrone and Tom Coughlin leading the charge. Trevor Lawrence (see my pick in Round 11) is going to be a star and completely changes the nature of that offense. Chark, among others, should excel, and we already have the benefit of seeing what the talented wideout can do in even adverse passing conditions.

8.2 - Russell Wilson

Part of the reason my draft didn't go to completely off the rails is the absolute value I was able to get with Dangerus. I don't think there's a significant difference between Russ, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert, so to capitalize on essentially an overzealous fading of the top QBs really was my goal. It also helped that I didn't have to guess when the next tier of TEs would get drafted since I had the position already locked up.

9.11 - Marquise Brown

At this point it was all about compiling extra WRs. There's a pretty obvious upside scenario for Brown and I don't even think it requires Lamar Jackson to take a significant leap as a passer. He's probably not going to get more than 70 receptions this year, but 15 touchdowns the last two years I think is a reflection of his explosiveness, and Brown proved last season to be a pretty quality start against lesser competition if nothing else.

10.2 - Curtis Samuel

I would have seriously had to think about Michael Thomas if he had fallen to my pick, but I really love the value of Samuel in Round 10. Yes, I'm legitimately worried about his groin injury, but I also agree with coach Ron Rivera when he says the missed practice time means less given his familiarity with Scott Turner's system. You can do a lot worse when it comes to a WR4 or WR5, and in a full-point PPR format like this, Samuel becomes even more valuable in my mind.

11.11 - Trevor Lawrence

It's a bit funny to see everyone who drafted a QB in Round 8 also come back in Round 11 with a signal caller. I might have been the last of that trio, but Lawrence would have been my first selection regardless. I'm not opposed to selecting Jalen Hurts or Joe Burrow, but the upside for the Clemson rookie is incredibly tantalizing. It matters less in formats like the NFFC where it's six points per passing touchdowns, but not enough people talk about Lawrence's mobility. DraftKings has his over/under at 325.5 rushing yards — I'll gladly take the over on that one.

12.2 - Alexander Mattison

More of the token backup selection to Dalvin Cook than any sort of endorsement to Mattison's skillset, but I'm not not opposed to him either. Maybe indifferent is the word? 

13.11 - John Brown

The hype for Bryan Edwards is justified, but I'm not sure he takes over the Nelson Agholor role 1-for-1. Maybe Henry Ruggs assumes some of that workload, but I think Brown when healthy is going to be a bigger factor than people seem to recognize. The Raiders are going to be passing plenty with that porous defense and we're one year removed from the 31-year-old going over 1,000 yards. Preseason Week 1 depth charts don't scare me whatsoever.

14.2 - Devin Singletary

The latest Zack Moss injury wasn't the reason I went after Singletary, but it certainly doesn't hurt. Sure, Josh Allen will syphon some of Singletary's — and Moss' for that matter — opportunities near the goal line, but it's pretty clear at this point the 23-year-old is a capable pass catcher and I think he's honestly the better runner at the NFL level too. Especially this late in the draft, I'm not anticipating Singletary becomes a key fixture. But he definitely could be a key contributor in certain weeks, and that's what I'm hoping for.

15.11 - Tyrell Williams

After the acquisition of Randall Cobb my Marquez Valdes-Scantling hype has faded significantly. Thankfully I still have a veteran WR pet project left in the form of Williams. The 29-year-old had three consecutive seasons with at least 15 yards per catch before missing all of 2020 with a shoulder injury and now becomes the top option with the Lions. I don't believe Jared Goff is going to throw it deep often, but I do think he's going to pass plenty and his targets can't go exclusively to Hockenson and Swift. Williams is going to be a factor for as long as he's healthy, and I wouldn't be surprised by the end of the year if he's closer to WR45 than the WR75, where he's going currently.

16.2 - Browns D

The AFC North plays the AFC West and NFC North this year. There's at least four games in their own division where the Browns are startable and they also get the Texans and Cardinals to boot.

17.11 - Christian Kirk

By the end of the draft I was just trying to compile depth options that I thought could post a certain production floor. The Cardinals should have a potent passing attack and Kirk is essentially guaranteed the slot work given the rest of the pass-catching corps.

18.2 - Tyler Bass

It's a kicker in a good offense.

19.11 - Seahawks D

This is a perfect Week 1 play given my top defense plays the Chiefs. The Seahawks are likely going to get either Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger Week 1. Or the better scenario for my purposes might be a severely hobbled Carson Wentz. Either way, I'll take that as a solid roulette play.

20.2 - Marquez Valdes-Scantling

SIKE! I'll never give up my aspirations Stone Hands develops into a quality player. Historically, Packers wide receivers tend to develop slowly. Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson and James Jones  took at least three seasons until they achieved a steady level of fantasy relevance. Crazier things could happen during The Last Dance, right?