This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Big Game is finally upon us and that means we have an insane menu of props and plays at our disposal ranging from coin toss results to Gatorade Color for the winning team (I like red/pink +300 FWIW) and everything in between. This article runs the gambit, touching on a same-game parlay and a wager that will pay out early in the game to get our beaks wet, plus much more. Let's finish the NFL season on a high note and earn some extra scratch here on Super Bowl Sunday as the Chiefs take on the Buccaneers in what should be an incredible game.
Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers Moneyline and UNDER 55.5 (+338)
After much soul searching, this is the parlay that lines up with my prediction for this game. Of course, Patrick Mahomes and Co. can make the Bucs moneyline and the under look foolish. I'm just not convinced that they will.
It's not a novel topic when it comes to this game, but the Chiefs' injuries along the offensive line, particularly the Eric Fisher Achilles tear, are going to cause problems. Yes, Patrick Mahomes should be closer to 100 percent this week than he was in the AFC Championship Game, but non-existent pass protection causes problems for any quarterback regardless of mobility. It's not just the injuries, either. It's that the replacements will be going up against an elite pass rush. That's a problem, and the Chiefs won't be able to pose a credible run threat to mitigate said pass rush. The Buccaneers defense can keep a lid on the Chiefs' offense.
If that condition is met and the Tampa defense steps up, that puts the under in play and ups the chances of the Bucs winning outright. You don't have to squint that hard to see it playing out this way, and getting it at +338 steers me towards throwing down a little bit on this parlay. If you're inclined to fade this, taking the Chiefs ML and the OVER pays +203.
First Player to Reach 10+ Rushing Yards: Leonard Fournette (+175)
NumberFire did a great breakdown on kickoff deferral tendencies for both teams, with the conclusion being that the Bucs have been electing to receive when they've won the toss of late and that the Chiefs almost always defer when they win the toss. With that in mind, let's assume that the Buccaneers get the ball first. If that's the case, I like Fournette's chances of getting 3+ carries on the opening drive. Fournette is averaging 4.4 YPC in the postseason and should be seeing fairly light boxes in the early going, so hitting this prop on the first drive is very much in play.
Beyond that, even if the Chiefs start out with the ball, I doubt they run enough in the early going to have Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+450) or Darrel Williams (+450) hit this number before Tampa gets a possession. The Buccaneers are too stout against the run for the Chiefs to really go off script and aim to #EstablishTheRun. I'll take Fournette at plus-money to hit over 10 rushing yards first.
Any Time TD Scorer: Tom Brady (+380)
Note: This prop is for players actually carrying the ball into the end zone or catching it in the end zone, so Brady tossing a score has nothing to do with this prop.
Brady isn't fleet of foot and never has been, but that hasn't stopped him from being one of the most effective QB Sneak artists in the game. He has three rushes from inside the five this year, all of which went for touchdowns. If Tampa gets in close and it's third down, it's Brady time and that should translate to this prop hitting at +380.
Any Time TD Scorer: Anthony Sherman +1500
This is obviously a long shot as Sherman doesn't play a heavy snap volume, but he tends to be involved in the Kansas City red zone packages. Kansas City isn't going to be holding anything back with its playbook and this play could be unveiled again Sunday. The Buccaneers are aware of this play, I'm sure, but I also don't know how you stop it.
Player to Have The Longest Reception: Mecole Hardman +1100 and Tyreek Hill +200
Despite my respect for the Tampa Bay defense, this is still a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs offense with speed all over the field. We saw it against the Bucs defense in Week 12, and while I don't think Tyreek Hill will go for 200 yards in the first quarter again, the splash plays will still be there for Kansas City. Hill is, unsurprisingly, the odds-on favorite at +200. Not much explanation is required there. Two of his five 40-yard receptions during the regular season came in that thrashing of the Tampa secondary. The Buccaneers will be hellbent on not letting that happen again, but sometimes that just doesn't matter with speed like Hill's. But a consequence of added defensive bandwidth going to Hill is that it could open single coverage on the outside for Hardman.
Hardman doesn't project for heavy target volume, which informs his long odds for this prop. However, we know that he also has that game-breaking speed with a 4.31 40-yard dash. All he needs is to get loose once and this prop can come in.
Either Team to Score an Opening Drive Touchdown +100
It's already established that I see this game going under the total, so neither team finding the end zone on their opening drive would jive with that. The Super Bowl almost always features some early-game jitters. Factor in both defenses being strong and there's a good chance we don't see the first touchdown until a few drives into the game.
Will There Be a Scorigami? Yes +1100
If you're unfamiliar, a Scorigami is defined as a game that finishes with a score that's never happened before. Obviously, betting on something that has literally never happened before carries some long odds. We're going to need some funky stuff to happen in order for this to work, but I believe in the funk.
First of all, we have two kickers who are shaky on extra points. Tampa Bay's Ryan Succop and Kansas City's Harrison Butker have combined for a whopping 11 missed extra points during the regular season. And both have missed the point after once this postseason as well. A missed extra point or two can steer us into Scorigami territory. It's not in either team's nature to go for two -- Kansas City and Tampa Bay rank 20th and 21st in two-point attempt rate, respectively. That could change if there are some extra points territory, and then we could really be in the funk zone as far as the score is concerned.
Again, this is +1100 and should probably be even longer odds given that we're betting on an unprecedented outcome. Some weirdness in the kicking game, which is entirely possible, could fuel a full-blown Scorigami.
