Exploiting the Matchups: Week 8 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on October 24, 2024

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Kirk Cousins (at TB) — 23% started

Start Over — Baker Mayfield (vs. ATL), Anthony Richardson (at HOU), Geno Smith (vs. BUF)

Tampa Bay's injuries on offense probably preclude another epic shootout between these teams, but Cousins shouldn't need 58 pass attempts to put up a solid fantasy score against one of the league's worst defenses. After allowing 509 yards and four TDs to Cousins in Week 5, the Bucs made Spencer Rattle look half-decent Week 6 (243 passing yards, 27 rushing) and then took a five-TD beating from Lamar Jackson in Week 7. Tampa has allowed the second most fantasy points to QBs, including season-best scores from Cousins, Jackson and Jayden Daniels. Even lesser QBs like Rattler and Bo Nix were able to find holes in Todd Bowles' leaky, zone-heavy defense.

Other Good Matchups: Jordan Love (at JAX), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. ARZ), Bo Nix (vs. CAR)

Running Backs 👍

Kareem Hunt (at LV) — 68% started

Start Over — Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. NYJ), Najee Harris (vs. NYG), Brian Robinson (vs. CHI)

Hunt has scored three TDs in three games since rejoining the Chiefs, with at least 28 snaps, 16 touches and 83 total yards

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Kirk Cousins (at TB) — 23% started

Start Over — Baker Mayfield (vs. ATL), Anthony Richardson (at HOU), Geno Smith (vs. BUF)

Other Good Matchups: Jordan Love (at JAX), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. ARZ), Bo Nix (vs. CAR)

Running Backs 👍

Kareem Hunt (at LV) — 68% started

Start Over — Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. NYJ), Najee Harris (vs. NYG), Brian Robinson (vs. CHI)

Hunt has scored three TDs in three games since rejoining the Chiefs, with at least 28 snaps, 16 touches and 83 total yards in each contest. He topped 60 percent snap share in the past two games, essentially taking over Isiah Pacheco's pre-injury role, only in an offense that's less pass-happy than ever before under QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs should be able to get it done with running and defense again this Sunday, facing a Raiders team that's allowed at least 15 PPR points to a running back every week this season.

J.K. Dobbins (vs. NO) — 70% started

Start Over — Tony Pollard (at DET), Chase Brown (vs. PHI), Tank Bigsby (vs. GB)

I've been skeptical of Dobbins' success due to the track record of RBs coming back from Achilles' tears as well as the extent to which his production has been based on a few long runs. The skepticism remains, but his workloads have been best-case scenario, and a matchup with the fallen Saints gives him a good chance to reach 4.0 YPC for the first time since Week 2. Dobbins has five straight games with at least 17 touches and four in a row taking at least 65 percent of snaps.

The Saints, meanwhile, allowed the fourth most PPR points (26.7 per game) and a league-high 5.6 YPC to running backs, most recently yielding a 14-88-2 rushing line to Jamaal Williams, 297 total yards and three TDs to Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving and a 27-102-1 rushing line to Kareem Hunt. Playing as a touchdown-favorite at home against the Saints is essentially a best-case scenario for Dobbins' rushing projection.

Other Good Matchups: Breece Hall (at NE), Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (at TB), De'Von Achane & Raheem Mostert (vs. ARZ), Aaron Jones (at LAR), James Cook (at SEA), Najee Harris (vs. NYG), Javonte Williams (vs. CAR)

Wide Receivers 👍

Jaylen Waddle (vs. ARZ) — 48% started

Start Over — Tank Dell (vs. IND), Jaylen Waddle (vs. ARZ), Jordan Addison (at LAR)

Waddle has been completely useless for fantasy ever since topping 100 yards Week 1 in Tua Tagovailoa's only healthy game this season. That should end this Sunday with Tagovailoa expected back in action, especially because the Dolphins are playing at home against a team that's allowed a league-high 9.1 YPT on throws to wide receivers. Thirteen teams have faced more WR targets, but only five have allowed more PPR points (36.1 per game) to the position. The Cardinals have good safeties but lousy cornerbacks, and they may be without starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (neck) this weekend.

Editor's Note: Waddle opened the week as a limited practice participant due to a quad injury. He should be fine to play, but it's something to keep an eye on if he ends up with a designation on the final injury report Friday.

Romeo Doubs (at JAX) — 31% started

Start Over — Courtland Sutton (vs. CAR), Wan'Dale Robinson (at PIT), Khalil Shakir (at SEA)

We should still expect the Packers to spread the ball around and leave talented pass catchers with some barren weeks, but things at least have trended in Doubs' direction since his one-week tantrum/suspension, with the 24-year-old immediately returning to a near-every-down role and then putting up (by far) his two best fantasy scores of the season. He'll now take aim at a Jacksonville defense that's allowed the fourth most PPR points to wide receivers despite playing four games against teams near the bottom of the league in WR usage/production (NE, IND, BUF, CLE). Seven starting WRs had their season highs for yardage against Jacksonville, and only Arizona has allowed more yards per target to the position (8.7).

Other Good Matchups: Drake London & Darnell Mooney (at TB), Garrett Wilson (at NE), DJ Moore, Rome Odunze & Keenan Allen (at WAS), Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison (at LAR), Amari Cooper & Keon Coleman (at SEA)

Tight Ends 👍

David Njoku (vs. BAL) — 54% started

Start Over — Sam LaPorta (vs. TEN), Dalton Kincaid (at SEA), Tucker Kraft (at JAX)

A 10-76-1 receiving line this past Sunday included three targets and a TD on Jameis Winston's lone drive, boosting Njoku's target rate for the season to 27.6 percent, third best among TEs that have run at least 100 routes. He should stay busy during Winston's first start, facing a Baltimore defense that curiously hasn't allowed a touchdown to tight ends despite facing the most targets (58) and giving up the most yards (536) to the position.

Cade Otton (8-100-0), Zach Ertz (4-68-0), Jake Ferguson (6-95-0) and Brock Bowers (9-98-0) all had strong outings against the Ravens, and in each case their production was heavily concentrated in the second half. Baltimore has allowed 385 receiving yards to tight ends after halftime, which is more than all but six teams have given up in total. Njoku should be able to copy the formula, playing as a nine-point underdog and no longer stuck with Deshaun Watson (Achilles).

Other Good Matchups: Kyle Pitts (at TB), Dalton Schultz (vs. IND)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Geno Smith (vs. BUF) — 23% started

Start Instead — Sam Darnold (at LAR), Jared Goff (vs. TEN), Caleb Williams (at WAS)

Smith has played well this year and is at least somewhat unlucky not to have more touchdowns, accounting for only half of his team's scores on offense (9 of 18) despite leading the league in pass attempts and yardage. The big fantasy scores should follow eventually, but it probably won't happen this Sunday against a strong Buffalo pass defense in a game that WR DK Metcalf (MCL sprain) may not be able to play in.

The Bills have allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to QBs while facing the fourth most pass attempts, ranking fifth in YPA allowed (6.4) and ninth in EPA per dropback (-0.11). This Bills-Seahawks game has shootout potential, but Smith will probably need to rely on volume rather than efficiency and may see Kenneth Walker dominate the fantasy scoring again (the Bills have been far less impressive against the run, allowing the second most fantasy points to RBs and 4.8 YPC).

Other Tough Matchups: Kyler Murray (at MIA), Dak Prescott (at SF), Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota (vs. CHI), Matthew Stafford (vs. MIN), Daniel Jones (at PIT), Gardner Minshew (vs. KC)

Running Backs 👎

Nick Chubb (vs. BAL) — 26% started

Start Instead — Javonte Williams (vs. CAR), Brian Robinson (vs. CHI)

For all their issues defending the pass and protecting leads, the Ravens remain rock-solid against the run, allowing league lows of 3.1 YPC and 51.7 rushing yards per game to RBs. The Tampa backfield just put up a ton of points against Baltimore on Monday, but that was largely via receiving production, which has never been a big part of Chubb's toolbox. The Browns' struggling O-line isn't likely to create much space against a strong Ravens front, leaving Chubb with tough sledding this Sunday even if things are generally looking up for him (he played 65 percent of snaps pre-halftime in his 2024 debut and scored a goal-line TD).

Alexander Mattison (vs. KC) — 18% started

Start Instead — Chase Brown (vs. PHI), Najee Harris (vs. NYG)

Mattison generally seems to be underrated right now, at least from a fantasy standpoint, largely lingering on benches despite scoring at least six PPR points every week and double digits in five of seven games. He at least 17 touches and 57 percent snap share in each game since Zamir White suffered a groin injury, including this past Sunday against the Rams when Mattison recorded his season highs for snap share (69 percent), carries (22) and total yards (123) even though White was active again (in a small backup role).

The possibility to repeat that workload makes Mattison startable if needed, but efficiency is a tough ask against a Chiefs defense that's allowing just 14.0 PPR points per game to RBs (1st) and 3.3 yards per carry (2nd). Jordan Mason's 14-58-9 rushing line this Sunday made him the first RB to reach 50 rushing yards against the Chiefs this season, although it was also his worst output of the year (previous low of 73 rushing yards). Mattison should fare better next week at Cincinnati, assuming he maintains his lead role

Other Tough Matchups: Kyren Williams (vs. MIN), Alvin Kamara (at LAC), Tony Pollard (at DET), Nick Chubb (vs. BAL), Alexander Mattison (vs. KC), Rico Dowdle (at SF), Tyrone Tracy & Devin Singletary (at PIT), Tyler Goodson & Trey Sermon (at HOU),

Wide Receivers 👎

Diontae Johnson (at DEN) — 47% started

Start Instead — Brian Thomas (vs. GB), George Pickens (vs. NYG), Jayden Reed (at JAX)

Playing through multiple injuries, Johnson had two duds the past three weeks, including a three-target, 17-yard showing this past Sunday against a seemingly vulnerable Washington secondary. He's now at risk of being shadowed by arguably the league's best cornerback, Patrick Surtain, who missed Denver's last game but may well clear concussion protocol before Sunday. The Broncos have limited WRs to 24.8 PPR points per game (3rd), 6.67 YPT (2nd) and two touchdown receptions (t-1st), getting strong seasons from S Brandon Jones and CB Riley Moss in addition to the always-stellar Surtain. This looks like a tough matchup even if Surtain is out again, especially now that Bryce Young is stepping back in as Carolina's starting QB for at least one game.

Michael Pittman (at HOU) — 40% started

Start Instead — Darnell Mooney (at TB), Romeo Doubs (at JAX), Courtland Sutton (vs. CAR)

Already on thin ice with Anthony Richardson at quarterback, Pittman should be downgraded another notch for this road matchup with a tough defense. Wide receivers have scored 10 touchdowns against Houston this year, but a 55.9 percent catch rate is the third lowest any team has allowed to the position. The Texans even held Pittman to 4-31-0 on eight targets Week 1, after he managed just 100 yards from 18 targets against them last season. The bigger concern, of course, is the combination of depressed passing volume and low completion rates that's become a hallmark of Richardson's starts.

Other Tough Matchups: Terry McLaurin (vs. CHI), Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson & Greg Dortch (at MIA), Malik Nabers & Darius Slayton (at PIT), Kayshon Boutte & Kendrick Bourne (vs. NYJ), Jakobi Meyers & Tre Tucker (vs. KC)

Tight Ends 👎

Mark Andrews (at CLE) — 66% started

Start Instead — Jake Ferguson (at SF), David Njoku (vs. BAL), Evan Engram (vs. GB)

The box scores suggest Andrews is back to his old ways with 162 yards and three TDs over the past three weeks, but he's lingering around 50 percent route share rather than his 70-80 percent range of past years. That means there's still risk of seeing just one or two targets some weeks, even if he's proven he's not washed up and can be a huge help for Baltimore's Super Bowl hopes. The upcoming matchup carries extra risk, as the Browns have been decent defending the pass overall and especially tough over the middle.

Only two defenses have allowed fewer passing yards (332) in the middle third of the field, and only one has allowed less yards per attempt (6.1) on those throws. It perhaps shouldn't be surprising to see the Browns allowing the fourth fewest PPR points to tight ends, as they arguably have the most athletic linebacker in the league with Jermiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush. Few teams, if any, are better equipped to defend tight ends while playing their base defense (rather than nickel).