Exploiting the Matchups: Week 14 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on December 7, 2023

Most of us are one or two weeks away from the fantasy playoffs, which means the upcoming matchups are probably either our most or least important of the year so far. I've got a win-to-get-in matchup in one dynasty league — loser definitely goes home — and then am clinging to the final spot in my main redraft league, where I can't win the points tiebreaker over two of the three teams sitting one game behind me.

That essentially gives me two must-win matchups, and in the two leagues where I actually know nearly all of my opponents personally. If I win the first matchup, I'm assured not only of a playoff spot but also of finishing at least .500 in all nine of my leagues, including one where I'm nonetheless already eliminated. It's been a good year, which probably means I'll get ransacked in my first-round playoff matchups Weeks 15/16.

Strategy definitely changes at this point in the season. Not necessarily in terms of start/sit decisions, but more when it comes to using bench spots. Rostering a second kicker rather than a fifth/sixth WR can make sense, especially if you've been streaming the position all year or your normal starter has a potentially tough matchup in the next few weeks (i.e., a road game against a team with a top defense like Baltimore or in a city with significant wind/snow risk like Cleveland, Chicago or Buffalo).

The same goes for D/STs... I actually had three on a single roster

The same goes for D/STs... I actually had three on a single roster by the end of last week; my Week 13 starter, my Week 14 starter and then the Chiefs for Weeks 15-17 (God willing). The other thing I like to do is give up on low-odds breakout candidates on my bench, e.g. Jameson Williams, and replace them with backup RBs like Elijah Mitchell or Rico Dowdle. Not that I'm burying Williams entirely in the long term, but a 2023 breakout at this point seems much less likely than a Christian McCaffrey or Tony Pollard injury.

Backup RBs who would instantly become RB2s (or even low-end RB1s) in the event the starter ahead of them is injured are exactly who you want on your bench late in the season. I hit the jackpot with that just last week — or so I thought — with Zack Moss returning to a starting role just a week after I'd picked him up in a couple of my relatively shallow leagues.

Anyone stashing Ezekiel Elliott probably just lucked into a multi-week starter, and those in deeper leagues may want to look toward DeeJay Dallas after both Kenneth Walker (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee) missed Wednesday's practice for Seattle. Looking further ahead, Brian Robinson's hamstring injury could put Antonio Gibson (55 percent rostered on Yahoo) into RB2 territory Week 15 after a bye, and Roschon Johnson (26 percent rostered) may or may not maintain his lead role from Week 12 now that D'Onta Foreman is healthy after Chicago's Week 13 bye.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Justin Fields (vs. DET) — 49% started

Start Over — C.J. Stroud (at NYJ), Jared Goff (at CHI), Jordan Love (at NYG)

While he hasn't been nearly as prolific as a runner this year, Fields had his first 100-yard game of the season just three weeks ago when the Bears traveled to Detroit and outplayed the Lions for most of the afternoon until giving up 17 points in the final three minutes to suffer a 31-26 loss. The rematch will be played in Chicago, with Detroit's defense still ranking as one of the friendlier units in the league for opposing QBs (fourth most fantasy points allowed) and relying on Jared Goff and Co. to pull more than their share of the weight. Don't be surprised if Fields makes it four consecutive 100-yard rushing games in matchups with Detroit.

Other Good Matchups: Dak Prescott (vs. PHI), Jordan Love (at NYG), Russell Wilson (at LAC), Joe Flacco (vs. JAX), Desmond Ridder (vs. TB)

Running Backs 👍

Zack Moss (at CIN) — 68% started

Start Over — David Montgomery (at CHI), De'Von Achane (vs. TEN), Breece Hall (vs. HOU)

The Bengals haven't given up much receiving production to running backs, but they have allowed the 10th most rushing yards per game (93.8) and fifth most per carry (4.54), with only five teams yielding more rushing TDs (10) to the position. Moss, meanwhile, is averaging 21.3 carries in the games he's played without Jonathan Taylor (thumb), which would be the top mark in the league ahead of Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs (18.3 apiece). The former Bills is one of the better bets to lead RBs in snaps and/or carries this week, as he's handled at least 18 totes and 76 percent snap share in every game without Taylor, including 94 percent of snaps last week in an otherwise disappointing effort at Tennessee.

Chuba Hubbard (at NO) — 40% started

Start Over — Alexander Mattison (at LV), James Cook (at KC), Gus Edwards (vs. LAR)

I highlighted Hubbard as one of the big winners from Week 13 in Box Score Breakdown on Monday, noting that he took 64 percent of snaps and 25 of the Panthers' 34 RB carries in the first game after Frank Reich and Friends were shown the door (en route to 104 rushing yards and two TDs. It's been obvious all year that Hubbard — while no superstar — is better than the version of Miles Sanders that showed up to Carolina.

The coaching change will put an end to the back-and-forth we've seen in Carolina's backfield this year, and Hubbard figures to be busy again this weekend against a Saints defense that allowed 314 rushing yards to RBs over the past two games (against Atlanta and Detroit). Part of the problem for New Orleans — normally stout against the run — is that S Marcus Maye (shoulder) and LB Pete Werner (oblique) have been unavailable and Cameron Jordan's playing time has been limited by an ankle injury.

Other Good Matchups: Alvin Kamara (vs. CAR), De'Von Achane (vs. TEN), Javonte Williams (at LAC). Joe Mixon (vs. IND), AJ Dillon and/or Aaron Jones (at NYG), Keaton Mitchell (vs. LAR)

Wide Receivers 👍

Drake London (vs. TB) — 44% started

Start Over — Tee Higgins (vs. IND), Tyler Lockett (at SF), DeAndre Hopkins (at MIA)

London will be playing at home, indoors, against a defense that's given up the fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers and has three veteran starters absent from practice this week, including CB Jamel Dean (who missed the past two games with an ankle injury). You know there's risk any time you start an Atlanta pass catcher, but the upside is worth it in this case. Don't be discouraged by last week's one-catch turd at the Meadowlands; a home matchup with the Bucs lands on the opposite end of the spectrum compared to facing the Jets' beastly secondary on the road.

Romeo Doubs (at NYG) — 22% started

Start Over — Gabe Davis (at KC), Jordan Addison (at LV), George Pickens (vs. NE)

Doubs isn't someone I'd normally recommend, as what we've seen through two seasons mostly looks like the definition of mediocre. He's maintained a degree of fantasy relevance this season because the Packers for some reason love throwing to him in the end zone, where his 12 targets are tied for fifth most in the league. Believe it or not, one of the guys ahead of Doubs is teammate Christian Watson (14 EZ targets), whose prolific history of hamstring injuries continued last week with an early exit from the SNF win over Kansas City.

It sets up a perfect storm for Doubs, facing a Giants defense that's given up the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers whilst employing a pair of perimeter cornerbacks (Adoree' Jackson, Deonte Jackson) that both rank in the bottom 10 percent of their position for PFF grade (not to mention utterly failing the eye test). It's also a nice spot for Jayden Reed to put up some numbers, though his matchup isn't quite as easy with slot corner Cor'Dale Flott and safeties Xavier McKinney and Jason Pinnock faring better than the team's perimeter CBs this year.

Other Good Matchups: CeeDee Lamb & Brandin Cooks (vs. PHI), DJ Moore (vs. DET), Gabe Davis (at KC), Courtland Sutton & Jerry Jeudy (at LAC), Elijah Moore (vs. JAX), Jayden Reed (at NYG)

Tight Ends 👍

Jake Ferguson (vs. PHI) — 68% started

Start Over — Evan Engram (at CLE), David Njoku (vs. JAX), Taysom Hill (vs. CAR)

Pass defense has been an unexpected weakness for Philadelphia this year, with some of last year's standouts not playing at the same level (namely the CB group) and some of the new faces doing better work defending the run than the pass (namely LBs Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow. No team has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks, and only five have worse cumulative PFF coverage grades. When it comes to defending tight ends, Philadelphia ranks 24th in PPR points (12.8 per game), 27th in catch rate (76.6 percent) and 22nd in YPT (7.64), with four different TEs having their best or second-best fantasy game of the season against the Eagles.

That group includes Ferguson, who finished the Week 9 loss with career highs for yardage (91) and targets (10) and also scored a TD as part of a three-game scoring streak. He then slumped Weeks 11-12 in blowout wins, before bouncing back strong last week against Seattle with six catches for 77 yards and a game-winning TD in a close win. The rematch with Philadelphia should work out well for Ferguson in terms of volume, and probably for efficiency as well.

Other Good Matchups: Kyle Pitts (vs. TB), Isaiah Likely (vs. LAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Geno Smith (at SF) — 27% started

Start Instead — Russell Wilson (at LAC), Jordan Love (at NYG), Joshua Dobbs (at LV)

Smith just had easily his best fantasy game of the season while playing on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. Unfortunately for Seattle, the magic ran out in the fourth quarter as each of the team's final three drives spanned less than 30 yards and ended with a turnover on downs. Smith has still been mediocre on the whole this year, and he's unlikely to come through in another tough road matchup against a San Francisco defense that just held the Eagles under 20 points for the third time in Jalen Hurts' 30 starts over the past two seasons.

Other Tough Matchups: C.J. Stroud (at NYJ), Matthew Stafford (at BAL)

Running Backs 👎

D'Andre Swift (at DAL) — 71% started

Start Instead — Zack Moss (at CIN), Javonte Williams (at LAC), David Montgomery (at CHI)

Swift flirted with RB1 status earlier in the season but has since settled in as more of an RB2, putting up five straight games Weeks 7-12 with 12-18 carries and three or fewer targets. The pass-catching volume rebounded some last week (six targets) in a loss to San Francisco, but he also got a season-low six carries and played only about half the offensive snaps before a big hit knocked him out of the game late in the fourth quarter. It turns out he's fine — not even listed on the injury report this week — but we still shouldn't expect a big game against a Cowboys defense that's given up the third fewest fantasy points to RBs and held Swift to 9.4 PPR points a month ago.

James Cook (at KC) — 51% started

Start Instead — Ezekiel Elliott (at PIT), Jaylen Warren (vs. NE), Jerome Ford (vs. JAX)

While the Chiefs have been above-average at limiting RB production and should have star linebacker Nick Bolton (wrist) returning to the lineup this week, what really concerns me about Cook is three straight games below 50 percent snap share prior to a Week 13 bye. He still put up solid fantasy scores in those games — thanks to some chunk gains on the ground against Denver and receiving points against the Jets and Eagles — but seems to be flirting with disaster in an offense where Latavius Murray also plays a lot and Ty Johnson now has a role as well.

On top of that, the Chiefs' injuries might work against Buffalo's running game, as Drue Tranquill (concussion) is an undersized linebacker who consistently gets horrible PFF grades for run defense and excellent grades for coverage. The combination of Tranquill being sidelined and Bolton back in the lineup might be a best-possible outcome for KC's run defense.

Other Tough Matchups: Kyren Williams (at BAL), Tony Pollard (vs. PHI), Rachaad White (at ATL), Derrick Henry (at MIA), D'Onta Foreman & Khalil Herbert (vs. DET)

Wide Receivers 👎

Calvin Ridley (at CLE) — 68% started

Start Instead — Puka Nacua (at BAL), Garrett Wilson (vs. HOU), Courtland Sutton (at LAC)

The projected target share upgrade with Christian Kirk (core muscle) out of the picture might seem tempting, especially given that the narrative surrounding Ridley's disappointing season tends to focus on lack of volume (7.0 targets per game) more so than lack of efficiency (60.7 percent catch rate, 8.2 YPT). My counter is that 8.2 YPT isn't especially impressive for a perimeter WR with a high aDOT (13.5), and certainly not for one whose had a favorable schedule while playing alongside a slot guy (Kirk), tight end (Evan Engram) and running back (Travis Etienne) that also demand defensive attention.

The truth is that Ridley isn't as good as I thought he was before the year, while the Cleveland defense is much better -- especially the secondary -- even after showing some cracks of late. Of course, a huge part of my concern here is the reality that Ridley will either catch passes from C.J. Beathard or an extremely limited version of Trevor Lawrence (high ankle sprain). On top of that, Browns CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) is practicing this week and might make it back from a two-game absence and rejoin Greg Newsome and Martin Emerson to form one of the best cornerback trios in the league.

Noah Brown (at NYJ) — 9% started

Start Instead — Elijah Moore (vs. JAX), Jerry Jeudy (at LAC), Jakobi Meyers (vs. MIN), Josh Downs (at CIN)

Brown shockingly topped 150 yards in back-to-back weeks earlier this season and generally seems like more of a priority for the Texans than he ever was with the Cowboys. He's back from a knee injury after missing a couple games and now has a full-time role in an offense with no Tank Dell (leg), but the matchup is as tough as it gets with the Texans on the road against a defense that has the best cornerbacks in the league and has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.

Brown took 68 percent of his snaps on the perimeter last week — and caught zero passes on two targets even with Dell sidelined after the first couple drives — while Robert Woods and John Metchie handled most of the slot work. In other words, Brown and Nico Collins figure to see a lot of Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, with Collins being the far safer bet to make up for any efficiency issues via lofty target volume.

Other Tough Matchups: Puka Nacua & Cooper Kupp (at BAL), Quentin Johnston & Jalen Guyton (vs. DEN), DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett & Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at SF)

Tight Ends 👎

Pat Freiermuth (vs. NE) — 37% started

Start Instead — Cole Kmet (vs. DET), Isaiah Likely (vs. LAR), Gerald Everett (vs. DEN)

With apologies to Noah Brown, Freiermuth's 9-120-0 showing two weeks ago might've been the most surprising receiving line of the season. He's a good player, but he was in his second week back from a month-long IR stint and had just 60 yards total in his five prior appearances this year. He then dropped back to 3-29-0 on five targets last week, and he still hasn't returned to the every-down role we saw at times in 2022, instead lingering around two-thirds shares for routes and snaps.

Now he'll team up with Mitch Trubisky, who is probably even worse than Kenny Pickett, in a game that likely will be slow-paced and low-scoring with both teams looking to run the ball a lot to mitigate their passing-game deficiencies. The over/under (30.0 or 30.5, depending on the book) is the lowest we've seen in at least 19 years, including games played during blizzards and with winds above 30 miles per hour. The only decent-looking fantasy plays are Jaylen Warren and Ezekiel Elliott, plus Najee Harris (knee) if he avoids the inactive list.

Other Tough Matchups: Dalton Kincaid (at KC), Tyler Higbee (at BAL)

The over/under for Pats-Steelers is 30.5
Would be tied for the 2nd lowest in an NFL game in the salary cap era (1994).
Lowest since 2004 Bills-Dolphins was O/U 30. Bad offenses, heavy winds, it ended 20-13 thanks to a pick-6 starting the scoring.
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) December 5, 2023