Exploiting the Matchups: Start/Sit Week 9

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Updated on November 5, 2021 9:59PM EST

This will be a significant week in terms byes. The team with the biggest impact in terms of missing players is the Buccaneers, though they've already been without Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown recently. In addition, fantasy managers will have to prepare for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett being off this week, but Russell Wilson will hope to use this week to get back from his injury. Aside from a few notable players from the Lions and Football Team, there aren't many big producers who will be missed this week.

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Quarterback

Justin Herbert (at PHI)

After being overmatched in back-to-back games by the Ravens and Vikings, this is an excellent get-right spot for Herbert. Although he'll see many of the zone defense concepts that troubled him in the last two games, there is a significant drop in the level of defensive performance from his last two opponents. Herbert faces the Eagles, who simply lack the personnel to deal with the trio of Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. That should allow Herbert to resume the pace he was on Weeks 3-5, when he averaged three touchdown passes and 300 yards.

Although the Eagles are a top-5 defense against QBs, they gave up eight TD passes to Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes. In addition, Tom Brady and Derek Carr averaged more than 300 yards and two TDs against this unit, and Herbert is clearly in the class of QBs who have feasted on this defense.

Honorable

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Quarterback

Justin Herbert (at PHI)

Honorable mentions: Josh Allen, BUF at JAC; Joe Burrow, CIN vs CLE; Kirk Cousins, MIN at BAL

Running Back

Aaron Jones (at KC)

When the Packers were down a pair of starting receivers in Week 8 against the Cardinals and their top-10 run defense, they had no issue leaning on their rushing attack, which led them to a victory. Although they're expected to get their receivers back, things are worse this week without Aaron Rodgers. Since that philosophy was so effective against a good defense, how much better will it work against a Chiefs defense that's bottom 5 against the run and the pass? With such an underwhelming defense, it's unlikely the Chiefs can even stack the box and spread their weak secondary out any further.

Even though Jones will share work with AJ Dillon, as he's done all year, he'll continue to build on a streak that's seen Jones post at least 96 combined yards in six of his last seven games. In addition, the only defense he faced this year that was in the bottom third of the league against RBs saw him score four times while posting 115 yards against the Lions. Regardless of game script, he'll likely produce at a high level as either a runner or receiver against a unit that's 29th in DVOA against RBs but also 28th in DVOA against receiving RBs.

Damien Harris (at CAR)

Few teams game plan as well as the Patriots, who face a Panthers defense that's top 6 against the pass with an above-average pressure rate. But the Panthers are below average against the run, and the Patriots will need little convincing to attack this defense with Damien Harris. Aside from a pair of brutal matchups earlier this season against the run defenses of the Saints and Buccaneers, he averaged 19 touches per game while posting at least 80 yards in four to go with six TDs.

It'll also help that the Patriots defense will face Sam Darnold, the QB who said he saw ghosts when playing their defense earlier in his career. Since Darnold began imploding the last month, expect the Patriots to shut down the Carolina offense, which will allow them to play ball control with Harris on offense.

Honorable mentions: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. DEN; Austin Ekeler, LAC at PHI; A.J. Dillon, GB at KC; Myles Gaskin, MIA vs. HOU

Wide Receiver

Tee Higgins (vs. CLE)

Although Higgins faces a Browns defense that's 25 in pass defense DVOA, he may rate an edge over his superstar teammate Ja'Marr Chase. Since the Browns also have the fifth-best pressure rate in the league (per Pro football Focus), Joe Burrow could be forced to abandon many of the typical deep passes that go to Chase and instead focus underneath on Higgins. In addition, the Browns have one of the best run defenses in the league, so it's best to attack through the air.

Since returning Week 5 from two missed games, Higgins has seen his yardage increase each week, and he posted a season-high 97 yards last week. He also hasn't seen fewer than six targets in any of his last five games, though he's had games with target totals of 10 and 15 in that span. He's also been targeted frequently in the red zone, and though he's yet to score this season, his usage in that area of the field will eventually bear fruit.

Mike Williams (at PHI)

Many fantasy managers were waiting for the bottom to fall out after Williams performed at a blistering pace through Week 5. After posting just four catches for 46 yards the last two games, the naysayers are taking victory laps, but when lookomg closer, there are extenuating circumstances. In the Baltimore game, he was a game-time decision with a knee injury and played just 19 snaps. And then in last week's game against the Patriots, Bill Belichick chose to focus on stopping Williams while Keenan Allen had the big game.

The Eagles don't typically shadow Darius Slay on a specific receiver, and with Williams play X receiver in the offense, he should be busy as both an underneath and downfield receiver, and it's unlikely the zone defense that Philly plays will stop him from finding open spaces while adding yardage after the catch. His size should also give him mismatches when the Chargers are in the red zone, which could help him find the end zone.

Honorable mentions: Brandin Cooks, HOU at MIA; Emmanuel Sanders, BUF at JAC; Marquise Brown, BAL vs. MIN; Jarvis Landry, CLE at CIN; Hunter Renfrow, LV at NYG

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki (vs. HOU)

Not only is Gesicki facing the third-worst defense against TEs, but the Dolphins will be without DeVante Parker (shoulder/hamstring), which will make Gesicki the most physical receiver the Dolphins have on the field. In the last six games, he's posted at least 43 yards with three of those games resulting in at least 85 yards. He also has a pair of TDs over that span.

Even though the Texans are also one of the worst run defenses in the league, the Dolphins' poor run-blocking line is more likely to result in them being in more passing situation than the team would like, but that ultimately helps Gesicki, who although listed as a TE is often lined up in the slot, which presents a mismatch for the defenders who work the middle of the field.

Honorable mentions: Dallas Goedert, PHI vs LAC; Noah Fant (if healthy), DEN at DAL; Tyler Conklin, MIN at BAL; Dan Arnold JAC vs. BUF

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Quarterback

Lamar Jackson (vs. MIN)

From a passing-yardage standpoint, Jackson has been all over the board this season, and he's thrown for fewer than 260 yards in half his games. He also has thrown exactly one TD pass in six of seven games this season, and he's failed to rush for a score in all but one game. The TDs just haven't been there for Jackson in 2021.

He faces a Minnesota defense that's held QBs to the seventh-fewest fantasy points, and per Pro Football Focus, the Vikings have the eighth-highest pressure rate, though that will take a hit with Danielle Hunter out due to injury. In addition, the Vikings have been top 9 in DVOA against TEs, and that could help to impact the production of Jackson's most reliable target in Mark Andrews. Overall, Jackson is likely to see some confusing looks from Mike Zimmer's defense, and this appears to be more of a floor than ceiling game.

Honorable mentions: Matt Ryan, ATL at NO; Trevor Lawrence, JAC vs. BUF; Sam Darnold, CAR vs. NE

Running Back

Nick Chubb (at CIN)

With Baker Mayfield playing hurt and the Browns dealing with injuries along the offensive line, the Steelers stacked the box to limit the running game while daring Mayfield to beat them. It was a successful strategy. Although Chubb averages 18 carries per game, he averages just one target per game, which hasn't helped his production.

He faces a Bengals defense that played poorly in a letdown spot against the Jets last week, but they're a top-half unit in terms of DVOA against the run. And in a game featuring two of the three slowest-paced offenses in the league, this game could easily be a low-scoring slugfest. And with Mayfield clearly struggling as a passer, this looks like a floor game for the uber-talented Chubb.

Honorable mentions: Joe Mixon, CIN vs. CLE; Melvin Gordon, DEN at DAL; Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL at NO; Elijah Mitchell, SF vs. ARI

Wide Receiver

DJ Moore (vs. NE)

Moore has been very productive this season, but he's been a completely different player from the first four to the most recent four games, which has coincided with Sam Darnold going from a solid QB to one who has struggled. In the first four games, Moore averaged 99 yards and 0.75 TDs, but since, he's averaged 62 yards without a score. And unless the QB play improves, his production will likely continue to trend downward.

In terms of the matchup, facing the Patriots is far from optimal, as their coaching staff has been excellent at identifying the primary offensive weapon and forcing the offense to go in a different direction. With no reliable TE and with Robby Anderson averaging eight yards over his last three games, it would be stunning if Moore wasn't bracketed while Darnold spends the afternoon under pressure, making this a tough spot for the Panthers' star WR.

Courtland Sutton (at DAL)

The last two games, Sutton has seen his targets fall from almost 10 per game between Weeks 2 and 6 to just 4.5 over the last two games. Although Sutton can run all routes with success, the pressure that Teddy Bridgewater's been under has put limits on the downfield passing attack, which has limited the star WR's upside.

Denver is at home, but they face a Dallas defense that's been a top-7 unit against the pass, and it is likely that Sutton will see a lot of attention from standout second-year CB Trevon Diggs. As if that's not enough, Dallas has a top-9 pressure rate (per Pro Football Focus), which is likely to cause Bridgewater plenty of issues in terms of keeping the passing game from attacking downfield. This has the look of a game in which they'll need to throw the ball short, and that likely means a down day for Sutton.

Honorable mentions: Marvin Jones, JAC vs. BUF; Jakobi Meyers, NE at CAR; Devonta Smith, PHI vs. LAC; Darnell Mooney, CHI at PIT

Tight End

Mark Andrews (vs. MIN)

Andrews has been excellent this season, scoring three touchdowns and averaging 98 yards per game Weeks 3-6. He's been targeted 5-8 times in every game, except one, so his production has been extremely efficient. Coming out of the bye, Rashod Bateman should now be fully conditioned and ready to build on his role, and Sammy Watkins is expected to return to the lineup, which should put a bit of a ceiling on Andrews' targets.

The Vikings are sixth best in terms of fantasy production allowed to TEs. In addition, Minnesota has the eight-highest pressure rate in the league, so the downfield seam passes that Andrews thrives on may be limited by both the Vikings linebacker and safety coverage along with the pass rush. Although Andrews should have a reasonable scoring floor, this doesn't look like a ceiling game for him.

Honorable mentions: Kyle Pitts, ATL at NO; Hunter Henry, NE at CAR; George Kittle, SF vs. ARI; Tyler Higbee, LAR vs. TEN