Exploiting the Matchups: McCown Takes Over

I often find that the greatest joys and pains of fantasy football come in the wildly unpredictable and random. For example, I've always found myself to be cursed Week 1. Regardless of how talented my teams may turn out to be, it's extremely rare I have a team collectively show up to start the season. So it was a huge surprise to me when I got a shocking break in our RotoWire Vegas league and stole a win with the third lowest score of the week -- out of 14 teams! What a joy it was to begin the year with a victory for a team that laid an egg but could turn into something special. I had the game locked up entering the second Monday night game and it was such a happy surprise that of course the curse had to rear its ugly head to balance things out. In my favorite home league -- facing my brother no less -- his real-life team buried my happiness like a dog hiding the remote in the backyard. Carlos Hyde and the 49ers' defense made me the third-highest scoring team for the week, and, per usual, 0-1 to start the year. Sometimes in fantasy it doesn't matter if you're the third-highest or third-lowest in scoring. The randomness of the universe simply decides your fate.

Joy and pain. Unpredictable and random.

At the beginning of a season, it's easy to overreact to the unexpected. So-and-so who you drafted highly is tanking while half a dozen guys you can't believe you passed on are going bananas. Case in point: how the heck did I think Devonta Freeman was a better pick than C.J. Anderson? I mean, he only topped 1,600 yards and led all running backs in touchdowns last year. Anderson though is a whirling dervish tackle-breaking machine that can vanquish any defense (when he's in shape, that is). How could I not see this? Who can I give Freeman to for next to nothing just so I can start moving past the fact that I missed this?

Despite knowing better, despite years of experience and perspective, this has been my reaction all week to this exact situation. And no doubt there are plenty of others like it. How could I possibly think Golden Tate would be better than Willie Snead?

The next few weeks are going to give you time to unravel the real from the really random. Don't give up on Freeman. Don't sell dirt-cheap. Don't be that guy. The season never unfolds as we expect it to when we're drafting. If you must trade to save your team, do it when you're 0-3 or 0-4 and then swing for the fences. Panic trades can backfire just as quickly as you decide to make them, turning that brief joy into lingering pain. After all, would you really be surprised if Freeman found the end zone against a Raiders defense that looked lost to start the year? So, sit tight, turn to the free agent pool for upgraded depth and let reality set in before making a less-informed, hasty move.

This week's column will be dedicated to Keenan Allen, Philip Rivers and the many owners that sadly lost a slew of catches, yards and scores. That kind of unexpected is the worst pain the game creates.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Andy Dalton, CIN at PIT

Dalton hung in against a brutal Jets front seven that sacked him seven times and hit him another 10 to torch them for 366 yards at a whopping 12.2 yards per attempt. A.J. Green embarrassed Darrelle Revis to the tune of almost half of those yards. What do you think this duo will do to the likes of Pittsburgh's sloppy corners as they seek revenge for the Steelers ending Dalton's 2015 season?

Alex Smith, KC at HOU

The Chiefs' defense is a much different animal without Justin Houston terrorizing quarterbacks and setting the edge versus the run. And it put Kansas City way behind last week and Smith where he's not accustomed to being – the fantasy spotlight. Playing from down 21 allowed Smith to throw for 366 yards while he piled up three total scores. As it turns out, this Houston offense is pretty good and could put the Chiefs' signal caller in a similar position in the only stadium in which he threw three touchdowns in 2015.

Josh McCown, CLE vs. BAL

The RGIII experiment could be permanently over in Cleveland, and if you're playing in a two-quarterback league, you should love that. In seven full games last season – with an even more rag-tag bunch of wideouts – McCown slung it for 2,060 yards and 12 touchdowns while only tossing four picks. He even shuffled his 36-year-old bones into the end zone once on the ground. He destroyed Baltimore with a 457-yard, three-score performance and could be poised for another big day versus a secondary that's made few dramatic upgrades. Top-end QB2 stuff this week.

Running Back

Rashad Jennings, NYG vs. NO

The Saints allowed an embarrassing 6.4 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns. Jennings saw 18 of the Giants' 24 rushing attempts, good for 11th most in the league last week. What more do you need to know?

Arian Foster, MIA at NE

Welp, it seems if Foster has lost anything, it's minimal, at most. His exceptional ability as a receiver will still allow him to pile up yards against any foe, as we saw with a 50-yard catch and run against Seattle that allowed him to churn out 100 total yards on only 16 touches. The Patriots are as well-coached and versatile a defense as there is in football, but they still won't shut down one of the most versatile tailbacks, particularly since Miami could lean on him with DeVante Parker still hurting.

Derrick Henry, TEN at DET

Frank Gore had plenty of support from a relentless pass attack keeping Detroit's defense on it's heels, but if the grandfather of NFL running backs was able to net 4.2 yards per carry against Detroit, Henry should have no problem shaking off a bad rushing debut (five carries for three yards). After Henry flashed his runaway train ability on two catches for 41 yards, in the first half, it was clear the Titans wanted to get him involved early. Unfortunately, they went away from the run against a beastly Minnesota front seven. Don't expect the same to happen in the "Motor City."

Isaiah Crowell, CLE vs. BAL

Everyone gets a boost in Cleveland with Robert Griffin (shoulder) going on injured reserve and McCown moving under center. Griffin completed a miserable 12-of-26 passes versus the Eagles and presented no threat of beating them through the air. McCown, who bombed Baltimore last year for 669 yards in two games, will be a different story. His ability to prey on a weak secondary will loosen up a stiff Ravens run D and help Crowell -- who still averaged 5.2 yards per carry and scored versus Philly -- to churn out the yards.

Wide Receiver

Victor Cruz & Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. NO

One was making his regular season pro debut, the other was playing his first meaningful football in nearly two years. They both scored. That Odell Beckham fella draws a ton of attention and, in case you missed it, The Waterboy's South Central Louisiana State University Mud Dogs led by tackling machine Bobby Boucher had a better defense than these Saints.

Emmanuel Sanders, DEN vs. IND

This is quite simply a "play guys against the Colts" storyline. It certainly doesn't hurt, of course, that Trevor Siemian looked like a more-than-capable NFL quarterback and Demaryius Thomas (hip) got banged up in their Week 1 win.

Mike Wallace, BAL at CLE

Don't make the same mistake twice if you slept on this recommendation last week. Wallace is going to become the best friend of Joe Flacco and possibly the MVP of the Ravens' offense with his ability to get behind a defense. Sure, Steve Smith will likely lead the team in targets and should eventually be back to himself to steal some of Wallace's thunder, but for now, just sit back and enjoy watching Flacco uncork those beautiful deep balls of his -- this time versus a Browns D that was one of only three teams to allow over 180 yards and two touchdowns to wideouts in Week 1. They even let Nelson Agholor burn them!

Tyrell Williams, SD vs. JAC

The oft-cursed Chargers lost Keenan Allen (ACL) for the season, and now must turn to a rag-tag bunch of wideouts. Though it seems like a recurring nightmare for Philip Rivers, it does present an opportunity for some unknown player to become a fantasy weapon. After all, in the second half of 2012 Rivers turned Danario Alexander into a fantasy darling. With Williams, he has another size/speed specimen that goes about 6-4, 205 with 4.40-speed. The Jaguars offense is too loaded to not force Rivers into slinging it, and sling it he can. Williams is only an intriguing play in deep leagues and DFS, but it's hard to ignore his four career catches totaling 161 yards, including 71 that came last week.

Tight End

Gary Barnidge, CLE vs. BAL

Don't worry. For those of us who bought into Barnidge's sensational breakout season in 2015, the goose egg he posted Week 1 will not be happening again anytime soon. McCown is here to save the day! In seven full games with the veteran passer last year, Barnidge posted an eye-popping 43 catches, 603 yards and six touchdowns, including 230 yards and a score in two contests versus Baltimore.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. GB

No defense allowed more yards to tight ends in Week 1 than the 112 Green Bay gave up to a combo of Julius Thomas and Marcedes Lewis. With so much inexperience at inside linebacker, don't be surprised if that becomes a trend this season. As for this week, Rudolph gets a bump because he established himself as the clear No. 2 weapon in the pass attack behind Stefon Diggs, turning eight targets into 65 yards.

Jason Witten, DAL at WAS

Witten led the Cowboys with a surprising 14 targets in Week 1, something that was quite possibly the result of the Giants being stronger in the secondary than their linebacking corps. Since the same could easily be said of Washington's defense, don't be at all surprised when Witten continues to be a favorite checkdown of rookie quarterback Dak Prescott.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Drew Brees, NO at NYG

In seven road games last year Brees threw for 2,017 yards and nine touchdowns. Over eight contests in his beloved NOLA, he racked up a whopping 2,853 yards and 23 touchdowns. He was his usual fantasy revelation self last week, but the Giants' high-priced defense is legit and Sunday is calling for rain in Jersey. There are better options out there.

Andrew Luck, IND at DEN

This Denver defense lost some pieces from last year's championship group but still looked awfully good opening the season versus Cam Newton and Co. While Luck turned in a solid 252 and two TD's last year against the Broncos, that was in Indy and was surprisingly a turnover-free affair. You're certainly not going to bench the stud talent, but it would be foolish to count on more than middle of the pack production this week.

Aaron Rodgers, GB at MIN

A three-touchdown week saved Rodgers versus a very lively Jaguars defense, but he may not be so fortunate against an even stingier Vikings group. Even with Jordy Nelson back, Rodgers completed less than 60% of his throws and failed to top 200 yards through the air. In fact, he has not topped 300 yards in any of his last 10 appearances (including playoffs), and the last time he did so he needed a career-high 61 attempts to get there against a Lions team that was 1-7 at the time.

Running Back

Mark Ingram, NO at NYG

It's hard to feed your running back the ball when your defense is bleeding points. Oddly enough, Ingram saw 14 touches even though the Saints led the Raiders for nearly the entire second half. How will they respond when the Giants build a lead at home against perhaps the NFL's most paper-thin defense? It's true Ingram could produce as a receiver, as he did often in 2015, but with Travaris Cadet back in town, it's also possible running routes out of the backfield will be a much smaller part of Ingram's game in a new season.

Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. GB

The Packers have not stopped the run this decade. Somehow, though, they limited T.J. Yeldon to a pitiful 39 yards on 21 carries and led the league in rushing defense for the season's first week. Not to be outdone by the futility of Jacksonville's lead back, Peterson was even MORE inept, getting stonewalled by Tennessee for just 31 yards on 19 attempts. Expect Green Bay to also dare Minnesota to beat them in the air regardless of whether it's Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford under center.

Todd Gurley, LA vs. SEA

Case Keenum threw for 130 yards and two interceptions against the 49ers and there is no savior coming to L.A. to take snaps. That means regardless of who is handing off to Gurley, this Rams offense is going nowhere against a Seattle team that got a wake-up call last week.

Wide Receiver

T.Y. Hilton & Donte Moncrief, IND at DEN

Kelvin Benjamin was impressive versus the elite Denver corners last week, but one shouldn't lose sight of the fact that he's a physical freak at the receiver position, making him essentially matchup-proof. After all, Benjamin racked up 169 yards and two TD's versus "The Legion of Boom" in two games as a rookie. Last year, Andrew Luck failed to find a wide receiver in the end zone against this secondary and three of his four scores last week went to tight ends. Translation: low floor, low ceiling.

Jordy Nelson, GB at MIN

The Vikings held Titans wide receivers to 10.0 yards per catch on 15 grabs. This shouldn't be too discouraging considering that no Tennessee wideout is anything more than a possession receiver, but what should be concerning is the sluggishness with which Nelson seemed to run his routes and get open in Week 1 -- to the tune of just 32 yards on six grabs. He may have saved his day against a rising Jaguars secondary with a touchdown, but a physical Vikings defense loaded with first-round talent may not allow the same.

Dez Bryant, DAL at WAS

Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland may have done nothing to slow Antonio Brown in Week 1, but that also means nothing about their ability. No one on the planet can slow down Brown. Together they still form one of the best corner duos in the league, and together they can keep Bryant under wraps as Dak Prescott refuses to force the ball to his only star receiver.

Tight End

Brent Celek, PHI at CHI

It's always difficult to determine early in the season which teams will be tough versus tight ends, but it certainly seems Chicago could be one of them. Danny Trevathan is one of the most athletic inside linebackers in the league, so while Celek figures to play a lead role in the Philly passing attack with Zach Ertz sidelined by a broken rib, this might not be the best matchup in which to test that theory. Though rookie Carson Wentz leaned on Ertz against a weak Browns back seven, he may not look Celek's way too often if Trevathan is shadowing him.

Coby Fleener, NO at NYG

The Raiders allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2015 and yet somehow Fleener, playing with an ultra tight-end-friendly quarterback, produced just six very sad yards in Week 1's loss to Oakland. And, mind you, that's a game in which Brees threw for 423 yards and four touchdowns. Fleener was regarded by many entering the season as a top-10 tight end option, but unless he can show major improvement against a Giants defense that actually gave up even more points to tight ends last year, he's a benchwarmer for the foreseeable future.