Exploiting the Matchups: Calling Captain Kirk

Exploiting the Matchups: Calling Captain Kirk

This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.

I have to make an exception this week. This week is not about me, or you, the readers, or even about fantasy really. My baby sister is getting married on Friday. So with a slew of errands and activities to attend to, I'm making an exception and pretty much breezing through this week's intro. After all, she's the bride. She's the star. And after 20-plus years of being the protective big brother, I'm giving this week to her and giving that job to my future brother, who unfortunately will make my nephews and/or nieces Giants fans and who constantly has my number in fantasy.

The other thing this week has going: reclamation projects. This fantasy season seems to be chock-full of them, and it's about the one fantasy-related topic that's slightly pulled my distracted mind away from the forthcoming nuptials.

The list of impact players recreating their football/fantasy narratives is a long one, and several new ones are worth watching this week (spoiler alert: a miniature running back that's recently forced his way onto that list gets a heavy endorsement below). We've already seen Christine Michael, Terrelle Pryor, Terrance West, Sam Bradford, Kenny Britt and Brian Hoyer re-imagine themselves and ignite some undeniable fantasy momentum. Jacquizz Rodgers dipped his toe in the reclamation water a couple weeks back and could resume course following his bye week. Now we get to see Knile Davis potentially take over the backfield for Green Bay. Colin Kaepernick is back running

I have to make an exception this week. This week is not about me, or you, the readers, or even about fantasy really. My baby sister is getting married on Friday. So with a slew of errands and activities to attend to, I'm making an exception and pretty much breezing through this week's intro. After all, she's the bride. She's the star. And after 20-plus years of being the protective big brother, I'm giving this week to her and giving that job to my future brother, who unfortunately will make my nephews and/or nieces Giants fans and who constantly has my number in fantasy.

The other thing this week has going: reclamation projects. This fantasy season seems to be chock-full of them, and it's about the one fantasy-related topic that's slightly pulled my distracted mind away from the forthcoming nuptials.

The list of impact players recreating their football/fantasy narratives is a long one, and several new ones are worth watching this week (spoiler alert: a miniature running back that's recently forced his way onto that list gets a heavy endorsement below). We've already seen Christine Michael, Terrelle Pryor, Terrance West, Sam Bradford, Kenny Britt and Brian Hoyer re-imagine themselves and ignite some undeniable fantasy momentum. Jacquizz Rodgers dipped his toe in the reclamation water a couple weeks back and could resume course following his bye week. Now we get to see Knile Davis potentially take over the backfield for Green Bay. Colin Kaepernick is back running the read-option too, while his former teammate Vernon Davis has the chance to remind everyone he might be the fastest tight end ever. Heck, last week Arrelious Benn showed up out of nowhere to catch a 51-yard game-winner. Who's next? Where's Zac Stacy? How them knees, Danario Alexander? How's the poundage, Trent Richardson? Jonathan Baldwin, anybody? It's the season of second chances! And the open bar is less than 48 hours away. Everybody wins!!

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins, WAS at DET

Cousins has thrown for at least 260 yards or three touchdowns in five straight games. You may as well chalk up a seventh now with the Lions' woeful pass defense on tap. Detroit has relinquished multiple passing scores in every game and has allowed each of the last four quarterbacks they've faced to incomplete fewer than 10 passes. Heck, they just let Case Keenum look like an All-Pro as he went 27-of-32 for 321 yards and three TDs.

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND

The Colts can't remotely stop the run. The Titans can really, really run. When Tennessee's third-ranked rushing offense is blasting Indy's hapless front seven, two things will work in Mariota's favor. One, he'll get numerous opportunities to cross the goal line either with his arm or his legs, and two, he'll set up play action perfectly to burn a tired secondary over the top for chunk yardage. With seven total scores the last two games and at least 60 yards rushing in each, Mariota is poised to stay hot.

Andy Dalton, CIN vs. CLE

Dalton is fourth in the league in passing yards per game with 292.8, but the veteran has tossed just six touchdowns in as many contests. This week, however, he'll put together a complete game for his owners, as he welcomes a Cleveland defense to the jungle that is 27th (tied) and 31st in passing yards (285.3) and touchdowns (16) allowed per game, respectively.

Blake Bortles, JAC vs. OAK

The Raiders' defense ranks dead last in passing yards allowed (312.7 per game) and is fresh off a 19-of-22 dissection by Alex Smith. Translation: this is exactly what the doctor ordered for a struggling Bortles and a Jacksonville offense that's failed to top 17 points in three of their last four games.

Running Back

Jacquizz Rodgers, TB at SF

While Doug Martin is still nursing a hamstring injury back to full strength, Rodgers gets to be the envy of every other running back in the league. He gets to be a three-down back facing the 49ers. In their five-game losing skid, the Niners' league-worst rushing defense has been hammered on the ground. They've allowed five straight 100-yard rushers and 726 total yards and eight touchdowns combined to those five tailbacks. Next up is Rodgers, who less than a month after signing with the Bucs served as workhorse against the Panthers, rushing for 101 yards on 30 carries. After his bye week he should be well rested and ready to hit the century mark again.

Chris Ivory, JAC vs. OAK

Three of the last four top tailbacks to face the Raiders rumbled for at least 113 yards and a touchdown. The fourth totaled 87 yards and caught a score. All of those rushers tip the scales at 215 pounds or more and run with toughness between the tackles – a trait more greatly exhibited by the 224-pound Ivory than his backfield mate, T.J. Yeldon. The Jaguars keep saying they want to establish the run. Well, here's their perfect chance. Expect Ivory, who got the goal line score last week, to lead the way against the 30th ranked run defense.

James White, NE at PIT

White has racked up 155 yards with Tom Brady under center the last two Sundays with at least 89 yards or a score in each game, including his two-touchdown effort last week as a receiver. The good times should continue rolling for this third-down/hurry-up/satellite back versus a Steelers defense that has allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs (386 so far).

Mike Gillislee, BUF at MIA

This can be ignored entirely if LeSean McCoy logs any full practices the rest of the week. Few backs in the league are balling as hard as Shady. However, if the league's second-leading rusher looks significantly limited or is out due to the hamstring injury that forced him from practice on Wednesday, his understudy is an absolute, unequivocal must-start. Gillislee has found the end zone in three of the last five games despite only touching the ball 19 times total and he's currently averaging 6.8 YPC and 9.0 yards per reception. Oh, and in case you were wondering, the Dolphins have allowed the fourth most rushing yards in the league to the tailback position (720).

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson, JAC vs. OAK

This is not so much an "upgrade" as it is a vote of confidence for someone that really needs it. I wrote these exact same words for Lamar Miller last week before he took full advantage of a ripe matchup with the Colts, blasting them for 178 total yards and two scores. For Robinson, this matchup is sorely needed. He's failed to top 72 yards in a game and has found the end zone in only two of them after leading the league last year in both receptions of at least 20 yards and touchdowns. Oakland has given up the most yards in the league to opposing wideouts (205.0 per contest average) and has allowed five receivers to hit the century mark.

Cameron Meredith, CHI at GB

If you're not starting Meredith by now, you're really not paying attention. He's snagged a combined 20-of-27 targets for 243 yards and a score in the last two contests, with at least 113 in each. Before Kevin White went down with a leg injury he saw 23 targets in his last two outings. Now those belong to the 6-foot-3 Meredith who is feasting on single coverage opposite Alshon Jeffery. So don't be surprised when the triple-digit streak hits three games with a decimated Green Bay secondary on tap.

Pierre Garcon & DeSean Jackson, WAS at DET

With Jordan Reed suffering from a concussion last week Garcon and Jackson moved up the Washington food chain to see 11 and nine targets respectively. Facing an Eagles pass defense that's among the top five versus the pass they only translated that volume into modest totals (77 and 55 yards respectively). The Lions, on the other hand, won't be so stingy. Detroit is doing nothing to slow aerial attacks, as they've allowed a league-high 17 touchdown passes and just let Kenny Britt torch them for 136 and two scores on only eight targets.

Quincy Enunwa, NYJ vs. BAL

It may be a bit desperate with the dysfunction that is the Jets offense right now, but it's hard to ignore the fact that no defense has allowed more touchdowns to opposing wideouts than Baltimore's 12. In fact, every passing score the Ravens have given up this year has been to a wide receiver, and eight of those have gone to receivers that are not their team's top target. That creates an intriguing recipe for Enunwa, who has quietly snagged one fewer catch this year than guys like Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas.

Tight End

C.J. Fiedorowicz, HOU at DEN

Houston knows it will be a tall order to beat Denver outside the numbers with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris likely to have the upper hand over DeAndre Hopkins and either Will Fuller or Jaelen Strong. And they surely took note of the way both Atlanta and San Diego exposed their inability to effectively cover the middle of the field – the Falcons with their tailbacks, the Chargers with athletic tight end Hunter Henry. Look for Fiedorowicz to mirror Henry's success (6/83/1 statline) and continue a quietly impressive stretch that's seen him have at least 61 yards or a score in three straight.

Vernon Davis, WAS at DET

Going into last week, the Eagles had allowed just 43 yards and no scores to tight ends. Davis proceeded to register 50 yards and find the end zone on only two grabs. With Jordan Reed likely to remain sidelined with a concussion, the uber-athletic Davis has a chance to ramp up his Washington renaissance versus a Lions team that has already allowed seven scores to tight ends in six contests, none of which has gone to a tight end currently among the top nine in yards for the position. That tells us they simply can't cover tight ends without the rangy DeAndre Levy (quadriceps) on the sideline.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. CHI

Vic Fangio has the Bears defense headed in the right direction. Despite playing against a slew of talented receivers and passers such as DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Marvin Jones, T.Y. Hilton, Allen Robinson, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck and Blake Bortles, they've given up the 10th fewest passing yards per game (233.5) and are tied for 12th in both touchdowns allowed (seven) and sacks (13). What's not heading in the right direction though is the Green Bay pass attack. Rodgers' streak of failing to reach 300 yards is at 14 games dating back to last year and now he has to face this defense, on a short week and without Davante Adams (concussion) or run game support from Eddie Lacy (ankle/foot).

Carson Palmer, AZ vs. SEA

Palmer will get you yards even on a bad day. He simply has too many weapons, and with at least 213 every time he's stepped on the field this year, that helps his floor. However, his seven scores in five outings is far off his MVP-caliber pace from 2015, and his five interceptions to just two touchdowns over his last three are even more concerning with "The Legion of Boom" coming to town.

Andrew Luck, IND at TEN

The Titans have tallied six sacks in two straight games against quarterbacks that can be pressured easily. They're now up to fifth in the league with 18 sacks. Luck, in case you were wondering, has been taken down a league-high 23 times. He may be one of the best talents at the quarterback position, but even he can't have a big fantasy day from his back.

Running Back

Jordan Howard, CHI at GB

Ezekiel Elliott may not have been a fair litmus test for just how good the Packers' run defense is. That Dallas offensive line is a dominant group and Elliott has the makings of a generational talent. At the least, it's fair to assume Elliott would not average 2.3 YPC versus Jacksonville like Howard did last week. So although Ka'Deem Carey (hamstring) may not be healthy enough to steal carries this time around, expect the Green Bay D to look more like it did in its first four games when it held opponents to under 43.0 yards rushing per contest.

Lamar Miller, HOU at DEN

When the Texans are highly limited through the air against an elite Denver pass defense, just like they were in losses to New England and Minnesota, Miller will revert back to the runner who slogged his way to 3.7 YPC with no where to go over the first five games. His best bet towards a double-digit fantasy day could be producing as a receiver, but for a tailback that's yet to have 30 or more receiving yards in a single game, that feels like a sucker bet.

C.J. Anderson, DEN vs. HOU

This is not a downgrade that is related to the Houston defense in any way. Anderson has simply stunk running the ball since a dynamic Week 1 effort -- 3.2 YPC and only 238 yards rushing in five games, with only one eclipsing 50 yards on the ground. If just his individual performance were the cause for concern, one could hope for a bounce back versus a Texans defense that's actually pretty generous to opposing tailbacks, but unfortunately for Anderson owners, a full-blown timeshare is about to be on their hands. Rookie Devontae Booker has flashed an impressive skillset in that same timeframe, averaging 4.9 YPC the last five weeks while displaying a blend of vision, wiggle and burst that coaches want on the field. Sorry, Anderson owners.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU at DEN

A banged-up Will Fuller (hamstring) can't help Hopkins by drawing safety attention and now the struggling veteran star has to face the elite Broncos corners going against the $72 million quarterback that spurned the very team he helped win a Super Bowl. Can life get any rougher for beleaguered Hopkins owners?

Larry Fitzgerald, AZ vs. SEA

Fitzgerald is averaging 9.6 targets per game and yet he's failed to top 81 yards in six outings. He had nice days versus Seattle last year with 185 yards and a score between the two meetings, but Michael Floyd and John Brown were providing much better support outside the numbers to open the middle of the field a bit more. We're seeing this year that with their struggles defenses can focus on and limit the future HOF'er. Factor in Palmer's decline from a red-hot 2015 and you have the recipe for mediocrity facing a fired-up Seattle D.

Jordan Matthews, PHI vs. MIN

Matthews has produced at least 65 yards or a touchdown in every game, but he's totaled just nine catches in his last three outings after registering 13 grabs in the first two weeks. With tendonitis flaring up in his knee and a brutal Vikings defense coming to town, expect Matthews' quietly-steady production to take a nose dive.

Marvin Jones, DET vs. WAS

The Redskins have faced some of the best receivers in football -- Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham, to name a few -- and yet they've only allowed two touchdowns to the position since Brown burned them for a couple in Week 1, and only that trio achieved triple-digit yardage on them. This spells danger for Jones. Whether you want to attribute his drastic drop off over the last three weeks to hamstring and foot ailments or the increased involvement of Theo Riddick, Anquan Boldin and Golden Tate in the quick-strike passing game, it's hard to ignore Jones going from 29 targets and 408 yards to 18 targets and 121 yards in two dramatically-different three game stretches. He's managed to save his fantasy production with scores the last two weeks, but that feels like a bad bet given the stinginess of Washington's defense these days.

Tight End

Zach Ertz, PHI vs. MIN

What more do you need to know about Ertz's prospects for this week than this: the Vikings have held Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker -- both 1,000-yard receivers in 2015 -- to a combined 106 yards on 15 targets. Harrison Smith and Co. are as a good a back seven as there is in football, and Ertz, who has yet to establish himself as the go-to target most expected him to be since returning in Week 5 from a rib injury, is about to find that out first hand.

Coby Fleener, NO at KC

The argument can certainly be made that the Chiefs have not faced a competent tight end since Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry came to town in Week 1, but the fact remains that they've allowed only 15 catches to the position in five games, good for second-fewest in the league. Considering Fleener only has 19 grabs himself -- 13 of which have come in his only two big games, both of which were at home -- it seems safer to trust the coverage of vets like Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry than someone with 54 combined yards in three of his five games.

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Luke Hoover
Luke Hoover has covered fantasy football for Rotowire.com since 2011 and is most proud of recommending Victor Cruz as a starter in his breakout game against the Eagles. He's a lifelong fan of Notre Dame, the Packers and, unfortunately, the Knicks.
Streaming Defenses: Week 13 Fantasy Options for Team Defenses
Streaming Defenses: Week 13 Fantasy Options for Team Defenses
Box Score Breakdown: Week 12 Snaps, Routes, Personnel and Usage
Box Score Breakdown: Week 12 Snaps, Routes, Personnel and Usage
NFL Expert Picks: Monday Night Football Ravens at Chargers
NFL Expert Picks: Monday Night Football Ravens at Chargers
NFL Picks and Player Props for Week 12 Monday Night Football
NFL Picks and Player Props for Week 12 Monday Night Football