This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Make sure to check out the "Weekly Specials" listed under some of the NFL games and always see what specials are being run under the "Odds Boost" section. The spreads seem to be lower collectively than in past weeks so maybe we should temper our offensive expectations for the week. Then again, I went and wrote up three "overs" for the player prop section. Let's take a look at some wagers to consider.
GAMES
Detroit Lions 
+3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Detroit could easily be 2-3 and being at home against the Bengals I think they're primed for their first win of the season. Joe Burrow is banged up after taking a shot to the throat and the Lions should up points against an average defense at home. Cinncinati has seen four of their five games decided by exactly three points so the hook could mean something here.
Houston Texans 
+10 at Indianapolis Colts - I'm not sure the Colts should be laying 10 points to anyone especially on a short week after their epic collapse. Davis Mills looked competent last week and I'd guess this is a low-scoring affair with Houston trying to grind out a win. The Colts' only win was against Miami and they won by 10 points so it's difficult seeing them blow out anyone.
Cleveland Browns 
-3 vs. Arizona Cardinals - News broke Friday that Nick Chubb will miss this contest but have no fear because Kareem Hunt is here. I'm not sure I'd even call Hunt a backup considering he's kind of the 1B but his value takes a big jump with Chubb sidelined. This spread strikes me as odd as it indicated that if these two teams played on a neutral field, it would be a pick'em despite the Browns being 3-2 and the Cardinals being 5-0. This smells like a trap to take the Cardinals so the contrarian in me will go with the home team.
PLAYER PROPS
David Njoku UNDER 22.5 Receiving Yards - This is a very low number for a player who had 149 receiving yards last week. However, in three of his five games this season, the under has hit here. Arizona defends the position well as they've allowed the third fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends.
Dan Arnold OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards - You get an added bonus of having some juice in the early game across the pond by taking this prop. Arnold had a team-high eight targets last week and turned those into six catches for 64 yards. He also played a season-high 49 snaps and appears to be acclimated to the offense after being traded a few weeks ago. The Dolphins rank below league-average in defending the tight end and putting a little on first half touchdown scorer (+650) and second half touchdown scorer (+550) makes sense as well.
Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion OVER 38.5 Yards - The Chiefs are in a good bounce-back spot against the WFT who allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Byron Pringle have combined for four passing plays of over 40 yards this season and with a over/under of 310.5 passing yards (like the over) it suggests there should be a big play or two for Mahomes.
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
Odell Beckham +140 - I think this is the week Odell finally has a big game and finds the end zone. He's been just a bit off with Baker for a few big plays and without Nick Chubb the Browns could rely more on the passing game. There's an over/under of 48.5 in this game so there should be good point totals for both teams in this one.
Parris Campbell +260 - Parris saw a season-high six targets and on a couple of pass plays he was open downfield using his speed to stretch the defense. Campbell is easily the fastest receiver on the Colts and there aren't many players at 200 lbs who run a 4.31 forty in the league. Don't be surprised to see Carson Wentz hook up with him for a long touchdown in this one.
CeeDee Lamb +110, Amari Cooper +130 - I like taking both wide receivers here as you only need one of them to score to turn a (meager) profit. However, both of these players have scored together in two of their five games this season. The Patriots defense isn't as good as it was in years past and Stephon Gilmore is no longer taking away the other team's best receiving option.
