This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week was a mixed bag of results with D.J. Moore coming through with a big game while Clyde Edwards-Helaire fell a bit short (although he did have a touchdown called back to penalty). This will be a fun weekend as I have to travel to Pittsburgh for my daughter to get in two soccer games Sunday so I'll be able to check out the DraftKings mobile app while in Pennsylvania. Let's get to some of the picks I'm already getting a good feeling about.
GAMES
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 vs. Green Bay Packers - The battles of the Bay opened with Tampa as a field goal favorite in most places. Given they're undefeated and coming off a bye, the line was bet quickly on Green Bay making them barely a favorite. This line could move between now and kickoff so keep an eye on that. With no major news, I tend to take teams where the line moves at least three points away from them as long as there's no logical reason for the line to move. I like this game is home for the Buccaneers, they've had 10 days to prepare for this game and they should have star wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans at their disposal.
Atlanta Falcons +170 at Minnesota Vikings -- I'm not sure if there's anything to the "team plays inspired football the game after the coach gets fired" but there may be something the rest of the coaching staff will try that works better for the team. The point spread (-4) seems off given the Falcons are 0-5, on the road and playing a team that should have beat the undefeated Seahawks last week. However, if something smells like a trap, it usually is.
Dallas Cowboys +1 vs. Arizona Cardinals - I'm guessing this line would be around Dallas -2 or -3 if Dak Prescott was healthy and under center. Andy Dalton didn't look washed up in relief last week and now has a full week of practice with the first team under his belt. If the Cowboys lean on Ezekiel Elliott more (which they should), that may mean more rest for the defense who could play much better than they have in recent weeks.
PLAYER PROPS
Zach Ertz over 42.5 receiving yards - Ertz is coming off a dismal 6-1-1 performance last week and with this matchup he's likely to get benched in a lot of fantasy leagues. I love this spot for him and think last week's production has dragged this number (42.5) down from where it should be in the 50s. I'd blame Carson Wentz more than Ertz latter's lack of production this far and it wouldn't surprise me if this is over by halftime.
Todd Gurley under 57.5 rushing yards - Gurley is coming off a big game with 121 yards on only 14 carries. That yardage should have most on the over although I think the under is the play here. The game flow seems like the Falcons will be playing from behind most of the game and therefore Gurley's workload in the second half should be limited.
Justin Jefferson over 67.5 receiving yards - The Falcons have been terrible against the pass and after picking on them with D.J. Moore last week it seems appropriate to fade them again. Before a dud last week, Jefferson had games of 103 and 175 yards the previous two. Look for this to be an easy over Jefferson especially if he hits for a long touchdown.
Evan Engram over 37.5 receiving yards - Engram is the second receiving option for the Giants after Darius Slayton. This isn't a tough matchup against the Washington Football Team who has been decimated by the tight end position this season. They've allowed opposing tight ends an average of 68.2 yards per game this season making this a prime matchup for Engram. This is one of my favorite player props of the week.
Daniel Jones over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100) - Jones hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 1 so this makes no sense. However, he had a touchdown pass called back last week due to penalty and it's pretty unlucky to throw no touchdowns over a four-game span. The Washington Football Team has allowed on average just under two touchdown passes per game and has a below-average secondary. Take the over here.
Brandin Cooks under 58.5 receiving yards - Cooks had a monster game last week (12-8-161) but his production has been inconsistent this season. In three of his five games, he's gone under 23.5 receiving yards and Will Fuller is still the No.1 target for the Texans.
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
Trey Burton +220 - When Mo Alie-Cox was ruled out Friday, I immediately checked the player props for Burton. His over/under for receiving yards was 22.5 which seemed ridiculously low to me. I immediately tweeted out to hit the over and within a couple of hours, the prop was taken down. The anytime touchdown stands at this price and it still seems like a good bet considering Philip Rivers' tendency to target his tight end in the red zone.
Justin Jefferson +130 - Look for a long touchdown from the rookie wide receiver. This has the potential to be a double hit with the over for receiving yards although I do like that prop better.
Zach Ertz +285 - Love where these odds are. Sure, he hasn't scored since Week 1 but that's probably why these odds are this high.
Curtis Samuel +385 - No, he hasn't scored yet this season so he's due, right? Seriously, Samuel has carved out a nice role in this offense both running the ball to spell Mike Davis and still serves as the No.3 wide receiver. It's nice that there are a few different ways he could find the end zone.
Phillip Lindsay +190 - Only hit this if Melvin Gordon is ruled out at some point over the weekend. Be prepared to bet this quickly (keep an eye on Adam Schefter's and Rotowire's Twitter accounts).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling +190 - Here's another player who hasn't scored since Week 1 but finds himself in a fruitful spot this week. Robert Tonyan may be the No.2 to Davante Adams but MVS still offers upside as far as long touchdowns go. If this is a shootout, he's going to see the easiest coverage of the receivers mentioned.
