DraftKings NFL: Week 18 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate includes 13 games and none have a total above 43.5 points. Consequently, none of the matchups really stand out as appealing targets for game stacks. It's the final week of the regular season and only about half of the teams have anything to play for. Understanding which teams have motivation to play their starters is a prerequisite to being successful this week. With so much uncertainty, it's an especially good slate to take some chances on spots that will be less popular. There's hardly anything that I would call "good chalk," which makes it easier to stomach fading some of the popular players in favor of leverage that can win you a tournament. I've highlighted some of the best options in terms of point-per-dollar value and added a few ideas for GPPs. Week 18 will be wild and unpredictable. Embrace the variance.  

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Tyler Allgeier vs. TB ($5,600)

The Falcons are 4-point favorites at home against the Bucs, who have nothing to play for and are likely to rest their key players. Allgeier has 20-plus touches in back-to-back weeks and touchdowns in two of his last three. He looks like one of the safest options at the position. As does Kenneth Walker ($6,400). The Seahawks need to win and have a favorable matchup at home against the Rams. Walker has rushed for at least 100 yards in consecutive games on 23 and 26 carries. 

• WR Rashid Shaheed vs. CAR ($4,200)

Shaheed caught all six of his targets for 79 yards last week. He has at least four catches and 70 or more receiving yards in three of his last four games. He's a dynamic player, capable of scoring anytime he touches the ball and the Saints look to get him the ball in a variety of ways. It's a good matchup at home against the Panthers, who've given up 411 and 336 passing yards in consecutive games against the Bucs and Lions. Greg Dortch ($3,800) is another viable option in this range. He's drawn double-digit targets in back-to-back games and the Cardinals will be without DeAndre Hopkins and James Conner for a matchup against the 49ers that should see them passing often. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jalen Hurts vs. NYG ($8,200)

QB Andy Dalton vs. CAR ($4,800), only if Taysom Hill is out

RB Kenneth Walker vs. LAR ($6,400)

RB Cam Akers at SEA ($6,200)

RB Najee Harris vs. CLE ($6,100)

RB Tyler Allgeier vs. TB ($5,600)

RB Latavius Murray vs. LAC ($5,400)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. BAL ($8,400)

WR Stefon Diggs vs. NE ($7,900)

WR Chris Olave vs. CAR ($6,200)

WR Garrett Wilson at MIA ($5,800)

WR Drake London vs. CAR ($4,900)

WR Rashid Shaheed vs. CAR ($4,200)

WR Greg Dortch at SF ($3,800)

TE Mark Andrews at CIN ($5,400)

TE Dallas Goedert vs. NYG ($4,900)

TE Pat Freiermuth vs. CLE ($3,800)

D/ST Minnesota Vikings at CHI ($2,900)

D/ST Houston Texans at IND ($2,700)

D/ST New York Jets at MIA ($2,600)

D/ST Denver Broncos vs. LAC ($2,500)

D/ST Atlanta Falcons vs. TB ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Onslaught Stacks

Considering that no game has a total higher than 43.5 points, you could make a credible argument that none are conducive for game stacks. There's also a lack of motivation in most of them. One thing I noticed is that the top three QBs all have something to play for. That means Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow have a reasonable chance to play four quarters. They're all substantial favorites, so it might be a lot to ask for these games to go back and forth, but each QB has the upside to throw for 300-plus yards and three or four TDs, even in blowout scenarios where the starters only play three quarters. With so much cheap value at RB and WR, it's relatively easy to spend up for the top QBs and their expensive WRs. That's the route I'll take. 

BILLS

The best news of the week has been the positive updates about Damar Hamlin's health. You have to imagine Buffalo will be up for this one. The Patriots have plenty to play for too as a win would be enough to send them to the playoffs. You could stack Josh Allen ($8,400) with one, two or three of Stefon Diggs ($7,900), Gabe Davis ($5,400) or Dawson Knox ($4,200). The Patriots have viable options in Jakobi Meyers ($5,100) and Hunter Henry ($3,300) to run it back with. 

EAGLES       

The Eagles need a win to clinch the No. 1 seed. Welcomed news is the return of Jalen Hurts ($8,200), who I highlighted in the high-priced heroes section. He's apparently healthy and if so, should have his way against a Giants team that has nothing to play for. You could pair Hurts with either A.J. Brown ($8,000) or DeVonta Smith ($7,500) plus Dallas Goedert ($4,900). I wouldn't worry about running it back with any Giants as it's nearly impossible to predict which of their pass-catchers might see volume. There are plenty of cheap options from other teams that make it easy enough to afford Hurts and company. 

BENGALS

Joe Burrow ($7,300) will be less popular than Allen and Hurts, which is reason enough to take a chance on him considering the upside that him and his WRs have. You'd figure they'll be out to make a statement after Monday's circumstances. They're still alive for the No. 2 seed and the Ravens are still alive for the playoffs, which means both teams should play their starters for as long as it stays competitive. I plan on pairing Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase ($8,400) and either Tee Higgins ($7,600) or Tyler Boyd ($4,600). You don't have to run it back with any Ravens, but Mark Andrews ($5,400) would make sense as he stands out as one of the better TE options on the slate. 

Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Stefon Diggs or WR Gabe Davis + WR Jakobi Meyers +/- TE Dawson Knox

QB Josh Allen + WR Stefon Diggs and/or WR Gabe Davis + TE Hunter Henry

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith +/- TE Dallas Goedert

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase/WR Tee Higgins +/- WR Tyler Boyd + TE Mark Andrews

QB Geno Smith +RB Cam Akers + WR DK Metcalf +/- TE Noah Fant

QB Geno Smith + WR DK Metcalf + WR Tutu Atwell or WR Van Jefferson +/- TE Noah Fant

QB Russell Wilson + WR Jerry Jeudy and/or WR Courtland Sutton

QB Sam Darnold + WR DJ Moore + WR Chris Olave or WR Rashid Shaheed

QB Sam Darnold + RB Alvin Kamara + WR DJ Moore

QB Andy Dalton + WR Rashid Shaheed and/or WR Chris Olave + WR DJ Moore

High-Priced Heroes

• QB Jalen Hurts vs. NYG ($8,200)

The Eagles must win to clinch the No. 1 seed so they should be all-out to win against a Giants team that has nothing to play for. Hurts had posted four consecutive games of 30-plus fantasy points before missing the last two with a sprained shoulder. Signs point to him being healthy and if so, he'll be able to do whatever he wants against a Giants defense likely to rest key players. Most of his big games this season have come in blowouts and most of his fantasy points have been accrued in the first half of games. If you don't trust his health, consider Josh Allen ($8,400) instead with the Bills needing a win to clinch the No. 2 seed. 

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. BAL ($8,400)

The Bengals still have something to play for and likely will play their starters all four quarters. Even in tough matchup against Raven, Chase has as much upside or more than any player on the slate. He's drawn at least 12 targets in three consecutive games and has put up 30-plus fantasy points in three of his last six. A.J. Brown ($8,000) and Stefon Diggs ($7,900) have similar upside if you'd rather avoid this spot for Bengals. I'll have exposure to both of them as well. 

Honorable Mentions: QB Josh Allen ($8,400); WR A.J. Brown ($8,000); WR Stefon Diggs ($7,900)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• WR Justin Jefferson at CHI ($9,100)

I've mentioned wanting to target teams that have motivation and the Vikings don't really have much to play for. They should have their way with Nathan Peterman and the Bears but we might only see the starters for a half. There's too much opportunity cost for me to roster Jefferson as the highest-priced WR on the slate considering the uncertainty. I'd rather use that salary on Diggs or Chase as the Bills and Bengals are still playing for the No. 2 seed. I'll be fading the entire top range at RB as well. I can't see McCaffrey, Ekeler or Barkley getting full workloads and it wouldn't surprise me if they just sat out the second half. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Drake London vs. TB ($4,900)

London has at least five catches in four consecutive games and is averaging 10 targets per game in that span. The Falcons have a favorable matchup at home against a Buccaneer team that should be resting its key players. It's the type of spot where London could go for 100-plus yards and one or two TDs. 

Honorable Mentions: WR DK Metcalf ($6,700); RB Kenneth Walker ($6,400); WR Chris Olave ($6,200); RB Najee Harris ($6,100); WR Courtland Sutton ($4,800)

The Bargain Bin

QB Geno Smith vs. LAR ($6,000)

QB Russell Wilson vs. LAC ($5,400)

QB Sam Darnold at NO ($5,300)

QB Andy Dalton vs. CAR ($4,800)

RB Jordan Mason vs. ARI ($5,000), depending on McCaffrey's status

WR Drake London vs. TB ($4,900)

WR Brandin Cooks at IND ($4,800)

WR Courtland Sutton vs. LAC ($4,800)

WR Tyler Boyd vs. BAL ($4,600)

WR Rashid Shaheed vs. CAR ($4,200)

WR Van Jefferson at SEA ($3,900)

WR Greg Dortch at SF ($3,800)

WR Tutu Atwell at SEA ($3,400)

TE Juwan Johnson vs. CAR ($3,700)

TE Trey McBride at SF ($3,400)

TE Hunter Henry at BUF ($3,300)

Injuries to Monitor

• QB Taysom Hill vs CAR

Whether Hill plays is a big deal for me and not because I have interest in Hill. He's been seeing a ton of work, though. Fourteen carries last game and 16 in the two previous. He also three touchdowns in that span. The point being that he takes quite a bit of opportunity away from the likes of Dalton, Kamara, Olave and Shaheed. The Saints are in a nice spot at home against the Panthers. Their passing-game would look especially appealing if Hill is ruled out.  

Weather

• There's a good chance for rain in Seattle. It's possible that the passing games could be slightly affected, but I wouldn't worry too much if it looks ok prior to kickoff.