Trevor Rogers

Rogers carried a strong spring into the season, but his hopes of rebounding from a poor 2022 campaign were dashed after four starts. First, Rogers was shelved with a biceps strain, and when he appeared ready to return, the southpaw was diagnosed with a partial tear in his right lat, shutting him down for the season. In his four starts, Rogers was showing signs of improvement, including the introduction of a sinker. It was only 18 innings, but his peripherals were much closer to 2021 than 2022. Because the second injury was to his non-throwing arm, Rogers was able to play catch down the stretch, with plans on continuing to throw into the offseason. He'll enter 2024 as a wild card. Even if Rogers demonstrates 2022 is the outlier, durability is an issue after making only four starts last season and 23 the prior campaign. Rogers is best drafted as a fungible starter, with streaming upside and replaceable if he struggles.

What...was...that? Rogers was one of the more wide awake sleepers heading into the 2022 draft season who many targeted in the late rounds after watching his growth in 2021 only to watch him aggressively backslide statistically in 2022 in many areas. His K-BB% dropped 40% while he specialized in filling the basepaths either by hits (.278) or walk rate (9%) and the first half splits were as poor as the second half splits. He allowed just 1 homer and a .194 average to lefties on the seasons while righties sprinted to the bat rack to hit 14 homers off him with a .298 average. Over three seasons, he has 14 quality starts in 55 career starts (25% rate) showing the risks with taking his upside too early in a draft. We cannot pretend 2021 is the real deal when 2020 and 2022 happened as well because the both sample sizes happened in nearly the same amount of innings. The biggest difference in the two samples was how well his fastball performed in 2021 when he most pitched up in the count (.222 avg; .334 SLG) vs 2022 when he was behind too often (.312 avg; .553 SLG.)

Ugly 2020 surface stats masked interesting skills and made Rogers a sleeper pick for many heading into the 2021 season. Those who took the chance were handsomely rewarded. Rogers posted a sparkling 2.64 ERA over 25 starts, and his 28.5 K% was backed up by a 14.1 SwStr% (12th in MLB, min. 120 innings). The lefty comfortably sits in the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball and pulls the string on his changeup about a quarter of the time. The league flailed at the change, batting a combined .193 with one homer and 47 strikeouts against the pitch. His third offering -- the slider -- had a whiff rate north of 40%, per Statcast, and further development of that pitch could propel Rogers toward the top of the SP rankings. Even as is, he's more than capable as a starter, and the cozy confines of Marlins Park help his cause. Thankfully the "sleeper" label still sort of applies despite the breakout already happening.

Rogers' 6.11 ERA wasn't pretty, but he still shot up prospect lists thanks to increased fastball velocity and an improved slider that helped lead to a 30.0 K%. He used to sit 90-93 mph with his high-spin fourseamer, but it averaged 94 mph while touching 96 mph last season. Rogers' slider improved from below-average to average, and his changeup, which drops off the table, has all the traits of a future plus offering. The 6-foot-6 southpaw's 3.49 xERA and 3.67 xFIP portend better results with normal luck, but he can also improve skills wise. His 10.0 BB% was the highest mark of his career, which is understandable for a 22-year-old jumping over Triple-A completely. He should be able to improve his command and control going forward. Despite being a first-round pick in 2017, Rogers doesn't come with a ton of prospect hype, and his bloated 2020 ERA allows for him to be available in the mixed-league end game.

Considering Rogers was selected with the No. 13 pick in the 2017 draft and received a $3.4 million bonus, it's tempting to try to make an argument for him being a valuable dynasty-league asset. However, he is old for his class, and is essentially a two-pitch lefty at the moment. He did not pitch at all after being drafted, which is slightly concerning as the Marlins' first-round pick from 2016, Braxton Garrett, didn't pitch after being drafted and then needed Tommy John surgery early on the following season. Rogers is not as well-rounded as Garrett, but the 6-foot-6 southpaw has a plus fastball and a slider that shows signs of being an out pitch. His changeup and curveball lag well behind as distant third and fourth pitches, so it's easy to see why some evaluators project him to end up in the bullpen. He lacks frontline upside, and is forever away from the majors, so he can be ignored for now in dynasty leagues where fewer than 200 prospects are rostered.