DraftKings NFL: Week 15 Sunday Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate includes 10 games and none have a 50-point total. The Chiefs are big favorites in Houston, as are the Eagles in Chicago. Most people don't like to target those types of spots for stacks as the blowout risk is high. That leaves the Cowboys-Jaguars and Titans-Chargers matchups as the two with the most potential to be high-scoring and competitive. Looking at the slate as a whole in terms of cash-game and optimal strategy, the Patriots' injury news will be important to monitor. Especially at wide receiver where things hinge on whether Jakobi Meyers plays. We don't have much clarity as of Friday afternoon and the Patriots-Raiders game is a late kickoff, so plan accordingly. Other than that, this week is more wide open than most. Don't hesitate to fade chalk in GPPs. Good luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• WR Nelson Agholor at LV ($3,400)

This is contingent on the status of Jakobi Meyers (concussion) and DeVante Parker (concussion), neither of whom is expected to play, as of Friday. Assuming they're out, Agholor would project as the top value option at WR after he drew 10 targets last week against the Cardinals. The $3,400 price is just way too cheap for a player that's projected for the most targets on his team. He'd be the closest thing to a lock in cash-games. Also keep an eye on the status of Brandin Cooks (calf) and Nico Collins (foot). Should both of them miss, Chris Moore ($4,200) would be chalky after catching 10 of 11 targets for 124 yards last week.  

• RB Alvin Kamara vs. ATL ($6,800)

It's been a rough stretch for Kamara, who's been held to single-digit fantasy points in four of five games since exploding for 43 in Week 8 but he has just about everything going for him this week. First, his salary is the cheapest it's been since Week 6. Second, Mark Ingram is out, which is significant because he had seven carries and five catches in the Saints last game. Third, the Falcons are giving Desmond Ridder his first start and you'd figure that leads to a positive game script for the Saints' rushing attack. And lastly, coach Dennis Allen has spoken publicly this week about getting Kamara more involved. He's going to be popular, rightly so. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Patrick Mahomes at HOU ($8,100)

QB Justin Herbert vs. TEN ($7,200)

RB Josh Jacobs vs. NE ($8,100)

RB James Conner at DEN ($6,900)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. ATL ($6,800)

RB Zonovan Knight vs. DET ($5,300)

RB Pierre Strong at LV ($4,000), if Stevenson and Harris are out

WR Ja'Marr Chase at TB ($8,300)

WR Keenan Allen vs. TEN ($6,800)

WR Zay Jones vs. DAL ($4,900)

WR Chris Moore at KC ($4,200)

WR Nelson Agholor at LV ($3,400)

TE Travis Kelce at HOU ($7,800)

TE Dalton Schultz at JAX ($4,400)

TE Greg Dulcich vs. ARI ($3,600)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo at LAC ($3,100)

D/ST Denver Broncos vs. ARI ($2,700)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Dallas Cowboys (26) at Jacksonville Jaguars (22)

COWBOYS

Dallas plays fast. They rank first in average play-clock remaining, third in situation-neutral pace and score at the fourth-highest rate on a per-play basis. Their games are usually good targets for DFS as more plays mean more fantasy points and they always have shootout potential if the opponent can keep up. Dak Prescott ($6,200) hasn't looked great but he's priced as cheap as we've seen all season and gets a favorable matchup against a below-average defense. CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) might go a bit overlooked due to inconsistency, but his ceiling remains high. There isn't as much opportunity cost at WR this week, which makes taking a shot on someone like Lamb more palatable. Michael Gallup ($4,500) won't be very popular and has more upside than most in his salary range. He just proved it two weeks ago with two touchdowns against the Colts. Dalton Schultz ($4,400) is coming off six catches on 10 targets and projects among the top TEs this week. I'm more interested in the running game. We just saw Derrick Henry cook the Jags' defense for 100 yards in the first quarter and Jacksonville hasn't really stopped anyone on the ground this season. Tony Pollard ($7,100) continues to look like one of the best RBs in the league and has multiple TDs in three of his last four games. Ezekiel Elliott ($6,200) has scored in each of his last six games. That's an incredible amount of production from the RB position and shows that each can consistently succeed, even in a timeshare. Pollard has the higher ceiling while Elliott makes sense as a leverage option. 

JAGUARS

Jacksonville seems to have turned a corner, at least on offense. Trevor Lawrence ($6,000) is starting to look like the generational talent that everyone said he was before the 2021 draft. He's coming off his best game as a pro after 368 yards and three TDs in last week's impressive comeback against Tennessee. He also rushed for a TD, his fourth on the ground this season. The Cowboys' defense struggled against the lowly Texans last week, and I wouldn't be surprised if Lawrence continues where he left off. Christian Kirk ($6,600) is a tad expensive but that will keep his popularity down. Zay Jones ($4,900) had another eight catches on 12 targets last week. He's now drawn double-digit targets in three of his last four and is clearly underpriced if he's going to see that type of volume. Evan Engram ($3,800) is coming off a career game after 11 catches for 162 yards and two scores helping him to a whopping 42 fantasy points. You often hear people questioning Engram's ceiling but that talk should be put to bed, especially considering Lawrence's improvement. Travis Etienne ($6,000) would be a contrarian option at RB after a string of underwhelming performances. From a DFS perspective, it's concerning that he hasn't been involved in the passing-game. That doesn't mean he can't run for 100-plus yards and a TD, however.

• Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + WR Lamb + WR Jones + TE Schultz 
• Favorite Jaguars Stack: QB Lawrence + RB Pollard or RB Elliott + WR Jones + TE Engram

Tennessee Titans (21.75) at Los Angeles Chargers (24.75)

CHARGERS

The Chargers rank third in situation-neutral pass-rate and third in average play-clock remaining. They consistently play fast and love to pass, which are two of the most important factors when evaluating potential stacks. The Titans defense is a pass funnel. It's among the best against the run and worst against the pass. We just saw Trevor Lawrence carve it up and Justin Herbert ($7,200) should do the same thing. He's topped 20 fantasy points in four consecutive games and his weapons are finally healthy. Keenan Allen ($6,800) has drawn a massive 14 targets in back-to-back games. He caught 12 last week and if he scores, would likely smash his salary. Mike Williams ($6,300) caught six for 116 yards and scored in what was his first significant action since Week 7. Both WRs appear to be over nagging injuries and their salaries haven't caught up yet. Gerald Everett ($4,300) has five catches in consecutive games and would be a contrarian option at TE. Austin Ekeler ($8,500) had a 23 touches, including another eight catches. He projects among the top RBs this week and pairing him with Herbert and a WR would offer all the leverage you need in GPPs. The cheap Titans' pass-catchers make that strategy more viable than usual. 

TITANS

Targetting this matchup is mostly about the appeal of a Chargers stack but the Titans have a few decent options to run it back with. Obviously, you could roster Derrick Henry ($8,000) if you want. It's a favorable matchup as the Chargers struggle stopping the run and Henry has a ceiling as high as any player on the slate. It was also encouraging to see him draw five targets last week. I have more interest in the Tennessee pass-catchers as I'm assuming a game script where the Chargers get out to a lead. It will be important to monitor the status of Treylon Burks ($4,600), who still hasn't practiced after a concussion in Week 13. He's had an impressive rookie season and would be the only Titan WR I'd consider, should he play. If not, opportunities would open up for Robert Woods ($4,400) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4,100). Woods saw seven targets last week and while Westbrook-Ikhine saw eight. All three are cheap enough to where you don't need much more than a touchdown to pay off the salary. Same goes for Chigoziem Okonkwo ($3,100), who's coming off his best game as a pro. He was popular last week, and I'd expect that to be the case again after six catches and a touchdown. 

• Stack 1: QB Herbert + WR Allen and/or WR Williams + TE Okonowo 
• Stack 2: QB Herbert + RB Henry + WR Allen or WR Williams + TE Everett 

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown and/or WR DeVonta Smith + TE Cole Kmet

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Chris Moore + TE Travis Kelce

QB Justin Fields + RB Miles Sanders + TE Cole Kmet

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase + WR Chris Godwin or WR Mike Evans

QB Dak Prescott + RB Travis Etienne + WR CeeDee Lamb + TE Dalton Schultz

QB Dak Prescott + WR CeeDee Lamb + WR Zay Jones or WR Christian Kirk + TE Dalton Schultz

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase at TB ($8,300)

I highlighted Chase in this section last week and he caught 10 passes for 116 yards and a TD. From a health/physical standpoint, he looks just as good as he did last season as he's shaken off the hip injury. Hayden Hurst has already been ruled out while Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are questionable. The Bengals might struggle trying to run against a stout Tampa Bay defensive line which means the onus would be on Chase and Burrow to carry the offense. We know they're plenty capable. 

• QB Jalen Hurts at CHI ($8,200)

Hurts is now the betting favorite to win MVP after another impressive performance in last week's demolition of the Giants. He's topped 30 fantasy points in three consecutive games and is almost always less popular than he should be. People aren't going to want to target a matchup against the Chicago for stacks, especially considering A.J. Brown's ($8,000) price, but the Eagles offense should be able to do whatever they want and the Bears actually have a couple of cheap pass-catchers to run it back with. Of course, you don't have to stack the game at all if you don't want to. It's more than viable to roster Hurts naked considering his rushing upside and the cheap value there is at WR. 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• RB Austin Ekeler vs. TEN ($8,500)

Ekeler is projected to be rostered on about 20 percent of lineups. I'm fine with fading that for a few reasons. The Titans' defense ranks first against the run and is one of the worst against the pass. Of course, Ekeler's value is mostly based on his receiving upside, but $8,500 is a steep price to pay for a running back who might not do much on the ground. The Chargers have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back healthy and I'd rather roster them instead. If I'm spending up at RB, it's likely for Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs, and it doesn't make sense roster all of them. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Isiah Pacheco at HOU ($5,900)

I'm going to continue to target one of the spots I've written about ad nauseam this season. Plain and simple, the Texans can't stop the run and have looked historically bad at times. If ever there was spot for Pacheco and pass-happy Cheifs to run the ball a bit more, it's here. They're also massive favorites, which sets up a likely game script with Pacheco getting a lot of second-half carries. He's had at least 15 touches in five consecutive games. Assuming he gets 15-20 again, I'm expecting 100-plus yards and a score. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Zach Wilson vs. DET ($5,100)

QB Mac Jones at LV ($5,000)

RB Isiah Pacheco at HOU ($5,900)

RB Zonovan Knight vs. DET ($5,300)

RB Latavius Murray vs. ARI ($5,100)

WR Chris Moore at KC ($4,200)

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at LAC ($4,000)

WR Elijah Moore vs. DET ($3,600)

WR Nelson Agholor at LV ($3,400)

WR Kendrick Bourne at LV ($3,100)

WR Tyquan Thornton at LV ($3,000)

TE Cole Kmet vs. PHI ($4,000)

TE Evan Engram at DAL ($3,800)

TE Greg Dulcich vs. ARI ($3,600)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo at LAC ($3,100)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Jakobi Meyers

Patriots news will be important to monitor. DeVante Parker has already been ruled out. If Meyers misses, Nelson Agholor ($3,400) would be the chalk at WR in cash-games while Kendrick Bourne ($3,100) and Tyquan Thornton ($3,000) would be viable in GPPs. The salaries are just so cheap on all three. 

• RB Rhamondre Stevenson and RB Damien Harris

Both Patriots RBs are listed questionable. Should they both miss, Pierre Strong ($4,000) would become a great option in every format. If only Harris plays, he'd be worth taking a chance on in GPPs. 

Weather

• Minor concern in Chicago, where it's going to be cold. As long as it isn't too windy come kickoff, I wouldn't worry about it.