This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Chicago Bears at 
Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 11
Staked as a 3.5-point favorite against a dreadful Carolina team last Thursday, the Bears won! By three. Chicago can't even win right. This week, we don't have to worry about them winning as they toddle into Detroit to take on the leaders in the NFC North. Detroit head man Dan Campbell has proven his critics (*raises hand*) very wrong and now has a stranglehold on a division that was ripe for the taking. Campbell has put a big emphasis on division games and his teams have responded. Even in his first year, the 3-13-1 campaign of 2021, the Lions were only 2-4 SU in the North but 4-2 ATS. Last year, they were 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS! This year, they manhandled the Packers in Green Bay in Week 4 in their only divisional game so far. And now, the Bears toddle into town.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds for Week 10
Bears +7.5/Lions -7.5
Bears ML +310/Lions ML -390
Total over 47.5/under 48
This game opened at 8.5 last Sunday morning, rising to 9.5 by Sunday night and getting as high as 10.5 on Tuesday before steadily descending down to its current spot by Wednesday night. This movement is quite confusing as the Lions appear to be the square side, garnering 73% of the bets but only 21% of the money. My interpretation is the early money was public money, driven by what they saw last, which was an exciting 41-38 Lions victory in LA over the Chargers where both teams had spectacular plays up and down the field. That, combined with Justin Fields' unknown status at the time, steamrolled the line all the way to 10.5. At that price, every sharp with the inclination that Fields was likely to be back took notice and pounded it so hard that it actually went past the original line to where it is today. Logically, the total went up from the 45.5 opener to where it is now with the news that the Tyson Bagent experience is over with Fields set to return.
Bears at Lions Betting Picks This Week
With the line where it is now, I believe the value has swung back in favor of the Lions. Yes, Fields is back, but as we touched on last week, the offense now has to revert back to "running QB mode" and that doesn't happen overnight. Plus, in contrast to Campbell's divisional numbers I gave above, Matt Eberflus was 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS against the North last year and is already 0-2 SU/ATS this year against a bad Green Bay team and the Vikings, at home, in their first game without Justin Jefferson. Yikes. I have no interest in stepping in the way of any of that. The Lions have home field, the superior coach, the superior QB, and dynamic playmakers all over the field. Even with the hook, I'm making the Lions -7.5 my best bet for this game. I'm also going to lean to the over, which is a square play after Detroit's shootout last week and the return of Fields. However, these teams combined for 51 and 61 points in their two games last year, both offenses are arguably better, and neither team has exactly sparkled on defense.
Bears vs. Panthers Best Bet: Lions -7.5 (BetMGM)
Bears at Lions Prediction
When the Lions took on Carolina in Detroit in Week 5, they blitzed the Panthers right out of the gate with a 14-0 first quarter. I see the same thing happening here, forcing the Bears to play from behind, which is not their strong suit. The Bears gather their footing in the second quarter, but a late TD gives Detroit a comfortable 21-10 lead at half. The teams trade touchdowns in the third to make it 28-17 and the Lions salt it away in the fourth with a pair of field goals as the Lions double-up the Bears, 34-17.
