Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 3

Last week (8-7-1) was again so-so. I won my best bet (Colts), but went 2-3 in the SuperContest. 

This week, I don't have any massive leans, but as of Wednesday morning, I especially like the Chargers and Bears, with smaller leans toward the Colts, Ravens and 49ers.  

THURSDAY NIGHT

Panthers -8 at Texans

The Texans have looked better than expected early, and they even played hard after Tyrod Taylor went down in Cleveland. That said, Davis Mills should find it rough going against an improved Carolina defense. This is a big road number on a short week, but I'm laying the wood. 

Panthers 27 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Cardinals -7.5 at Jaguars

I made this line seven, so that puts me on the Jaguars, arguably the worst team in the league. Still it's a lot of points for a home dog against a Cardinals team that was lucky to win last week. 

Cardinals 26 - 20

Colts +5.5 at Titans

I made this line 7.5, assuming Jacob Eason would play, but now it looks more like 50/50 Carson Wentz can go. With Wentz, I'd probably make it 3.5 or so, and this is about right in the middle. I'll hold my nose and take the Colts to keep it close in a division game. 

Titans 26 - 23

Ravens -8 at Lions

This is exactly where I set the line, so I have to choose. The Lions are off a short week, and their defense looked bad against the Packers. Their offense moved the ball, but it should be tougher going against the Ravens. I'll lay the wood. 

Ravens 30 - 17

Football Team +8.5 at Bills

Maybe I'm missing something, but I had this line at 5.5, as I don't think the disparity in these teams is that huge, especially when the weather still isn't an issue in Buffalo. The one thing that gives me pause is how bad the Team's pass rush looked against the Giants last week. If they don't get to Josh Allen, he'll light them up. Take the points. 

Bills 27 - 20

Saints +3 at Patriots

I made this line exactly three, but I'll buy the Saints low off the bad loss in Carolina. Take the points. 

Patriots 17 - 16

Chargers +6.5 at Chiefs

I made this line six, so I'm narrowly on the Chargers. I have no idea why the offense no-showed against Dallas, but I think Justin Herbert will more or less keep pace with Patrick Mahomes. Take the points. 

Chiefs 33 - 30

Falcons +3 at Giants

I made this line 4.5, as the Giants offense woke up last week, and their defense is better than Atlanta's. Lay the wood. 

Giants 31 - 23

Bears +7 at Browns

This line strikes me as too large, given the injuries to Cleveland's receivers. Baker Mayfield is relegated to targeting his tight ends, and the Bears could be interesting if the mobile Justin Fields gets the start. Take the points. 

Browns 24 - 23

Bengals +3.5 at Steelers

The Steelers are a wreck with T.J. Watt, Joe Haden, Devin Bush, Ben Roethlisberger and Diontae Johnson all banged up. Some of them should play, but even at full strength, the offense isn't great. The Bengals still can't protect Joe Burrow, so a healthy Steelers defense would be a problem, but I'll take the points. 

Bengals 23 - 20

LATE GAMES

Dolphins +4 at Raiders

This game depends entirely on whether Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) plays, as Jacoby Brissett can't get it done. I'll lay the wood here as I love this line with Brissett, and I don't hate it with Tua (I'd make it 3.5.) 

Raiders 24 - 19

Jets +10.5 at Broncos

I made this line 11.5 because the Broncos defense looks legitimately good, while the Jets lost Mekhi Becton, and Zach Wilson has yet to look comfortable. Lay the wood. 

Broncos 31 - 13

Buccaneers -1 at Rams

I made this a pick 'em, and this moved to one, so I'm on the Rams (even though the one point doesn't mean much.) The Bucs offense is better, but the difference is the Rams have a far better secondary. Take the point. 

Rams 27 - 24

Seahawks -2 at Vikings

I made the Vikings 1.5-point home favorites. I like buying Seattle off the loss, and I hate taking teams off heartbreaking losses, but these teams aren't that far apart. Take the points. 

Vikings 30 - 28

SUNDAY NIGHT

Packers +3.5 at 49ers

This is exactly where I set the line, so it's a coin flip. But give me the Niners, who have a better defense, at home. 

49ers 34 - 30

MONDAY NIGHT

Eagles +4 at Cowboys

The Cowboys defense played surprisingly well last week in Los Angeles without DeMarcus Lawrence, but I'd be surprised if they can sustain it. They're also down Michael Gallup and possibly Amari Cooper on offense. Take the points. 

Eagles 27 - 23

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Last week, I went 8-7-1 ATS to go to 15-16-1 on the year, won my best bet (Colts) to go to 2-0, and went 2-3 in the SuperContest to go 5-5.  Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.