Beating the Book: Eagles Dominate, Bengals Keep Pace + Full NFL Week 15 ATS Picks and Score Predictions

This article is part of our Beating the Book series.

Welcome to the NFL Week 15 edition of Beating the Book.

We ran into a buzzsaw at the worst possible time last week, finishing with our worst ATS record of the season. It goes without saying that it was a humbling week, though I do feel like we came out on the wrong end of some brutal breaks.

From the Raiders taking what will henceforth be known as simply The Loss, to the Chiefs blowing a 27-0 lead, to another Tua no-show, to Kyler Murray going down on the second play of the game, we absorbed punch after punch from Thursday all the way through Monday night. Those were the toughest blows, but we haven't even mentioned the Titans' turnover-fest at home or Mitch Trubisky single-handedly annihilating our Steelers -2.5 pick. 

Anyway, enough sulking from me. That's all in the past. We emerge from Week 14 battered and bruised. If we held a walk-through on Wednesday, we'd be listed as a DNP-Lacerated Ego. But with only a month remaining in the regular season, there's no time to dwell on the past. 

Looking at the Week 15 board, a few items jump out. First and foremost, all 32 teams are in action – a major blessing after last week's six-teams-on-bye debacle. Second, we're treated to a trio of Saturday games: Colts-Vikings, Ravens-Browns and Dolphins-Bills.

Normally, I would be in favor of this, but I have a wedding to attend on Saturday evening, so things could get dicey if there's no TV on site. If push comes to shove, I'm not above covertly streaming Dolphins-Bills on my phone under the dinner table. It's happened before and it'll happen again.

Over the 16 games, we currently have only four teams, including the Bills (-7.5) favored by more than 4.5 points. Buffalo is joined in that club by the Eagles (-9.5 at CHI), the Chiefs (-14.0 at HOU) and the Packers (-7.0 vs. LAR), who finish out the week with a Monday Night Football matchup against, presumably, Baker Mayfield and the Rams.

Before we fully dive in on the Week 15 slate, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 14 picks.

Last week: 4-9 ATS; 7-6 straight up; best bet won (Bengals -6.0 vs. Browns)

On the season: 95-106-7 ATS; 133-73-2 straight up; 5-9 best bets

Best calls of Week 14: 

• Despite their recent mini-surge, the Raiders are still one of only a handful of teams capable of getting tripped up by a team starting Baker Mayfield.*
• With the Bengals rolling and Watson still getting his sea legs, I'll take Cincy with the points at home.
• Every now and then, the Bucs' offense shows glimpses of big-play ability, but by now we have an overwhelming sample that suggests otherwise. Going up against one of the best defenses in the league, I expect Tampa to struggle.

Worst calls of Week 14:

• *Still taking the Raiders to cover despite the above statement.
• After what we saw from the Texans last week – in Houston, no less – it certainly feels like Dallas could sleepwalk its way to a 20-point victory punctuated by a pick-six (or two).
• In what's basically a weekly simulation at this point, Denver will be stuck in the mud on offense while Kansas City autopilots its way to a victory.

NFL Week 15 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via BetMGM, as of Wednesday at Noon ET. If you don't have a BetMGM account yet, you can use this BetMGM bonus code for a generous welcome bonus.

 Thursday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco is coming off of an impressive, thoroughly dominant win over the Buccaneers at home, but Brock Purdy emerged with an oblique injury, while Deebo Samuel could miss the rest of the regular season.

Purdy remained in the game, so the general belief is that he'll be good to go for Week 15, but the loss of Samuel is a major blow for an offense that, as solid as Purdy has looked, is still on its third quarterback. Seattle, meanwhile, feels like it's teetering on the edge of a free-fall. After consecutive losses to the Bucs and Raiders, the Seahawks barely squeaked by the Rams in Week 14 before falling completely flat against Carolina – at home, no less – in Week 15. 

Seattle's offensive line is crumbling, the defense is a mess – Carolina piled up 223 rushing yards on Sunday – and Geno Smith has turned the ball over seven times in the last four games. Playing at home on a short week, Seattle will be able to put up a fight, but I simply can't trust this defense against one of the league's better rushing attacks.

The pick: 49ers 27 – Seahawks 21

Saturday Games

Indianapolis Colts (+4.0) at Minnesota Vikings

Just like that, the Vikings are back to having a negative point differential, despite sitting at 10-3. Entering last week as dogs to the Lions felt like a major opportunity to make a statement. Technically, a statement was made, but it wasn't exactly the message Minnesota was looking to send to the rest of the NFC.

All season long, the numbers have pointed to the Vikings as one of the luckiest "good" teams of all-time, and that's never felt more true. Even on an afternoon when Justin Jefferson set the franchise receiving record, Minnesota still managed to lose by two touchdowns. The Vikings' defense is down to 25th in EPA, including 27th against the pass.

Luckily, Minnesota should be in a good spot to rebound against the NFL's 31st-ranked offense and 29th-best passing attack. Coming out of a bye, Indy could give Minnesota a run for its money, but I'll take the Vikings to win and cover in yet another well, I guess a win is a win type of game.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Colts 21

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns

Lord have mercy. One disadvantage of finalizing these picks midway through the week is we often run into uncertain injury situations. This is absolutely one of them, as we currently have no idea who will be under center for the Ravens come Saturday afternoon. Tyler Huntley appears to be moving in the right direction, but he remains in concussion protocol after taking several crushing hits in the Ravens' Week 14 win over Pittsburgh.

Based on what we've seen from Deshaun Watson over the last two weeks, I don't love that I may have no choice but to take the Browns at home – in fact, I might hate it. And perhaps even more concerning is the fact that Cleveland has been unable to get Nick Chubb going in four of the last five games. I fully expect the Baltimore defense to show up, so this is far from a plus matchup for Chubb.

If Huntley is the quarterback, I'll take the Ravens to pull out a win in another low-scoring affair. But if Anthony Brown gets the start, I have to side with the Browns at home.

The pick: Browns 19 – Ravens 17

Miami Dolphins (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills

Coming off of two consecutive massive letdowns, it feels like the Dolphins absolutely need to respond this week. The issue is they now travel across the country – 2,309 miles, to be exact – to play in Buffalo, where it's currently projected to be 30 degrees with a 60 percent chance of snow at game time. 

Early in the season – like, say, Week 3, for instance – the Dolphins had a distinct advantage when they lured northerly opponents into the heat and humidity of Miami. Three months later, the tables have turned. Or perhaps more accurately for this specific game, the tables have been crashed through and completely destroyed 

While Josh Allen and the Bills' passing game looked shaky last week against the Jets, it's difficult not to like Buffalo's chances to use the weather to their advantage and become the third straight team to bother Tua Tagovailoa, who's coming off of back-to-back alarming performances against the 49ers and Chargers – the latter of which was the worst game of his career. It was also the least-efficient passing game since The Duck Hodges Experience in 2019.

There's a case to be made that Miami needs this game more than Buffalo, but the Bills need to keep winning to hang on to the top seed in the AFC. Playing at home with a significant travel and weather advantage, give me Buffalo to win and cover a messy, relatively low-scoring game.

The pick: Bills 24 – Dolphins 14

Sunday Early Games

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Both teams emerged from last week's Steelers-Ravens clash with major question marks at quarterback. After Kenny Pickett was body-slammed out of the game by Roquan Smith, Mitch Trubisky came on in relief and promptly reminded the entire world why he's not an NFL starting quarterback. Trubisky tossed three interceptions over the course of four drives, and all three picks came inside the Baltimore 10-yard-line. 

As of Wednesday, it sounds like there's a chance Pickett could clear concussion protocol, but Pittsburgh will likely have to prepare as though Trubisky will get the start. If that's ultimately the case, then I give the edge toward Sam Darnold, the Panthers' top-10-EPA rushing attack and a Carolina defense that continues to exceed expectations on a weekly basis.

Cautiously – and slightly less cautiously if it's Trubisky under center for Pittsburgh – give me the Panthers to win a close game and keep their dreams of somehow winning the NFC South alive.

The pick: Panthers 23 – Steelers 21

Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) at Chicago Bears

Chicago is coming off of a late bye, which should enable Justin Fields to move closer to full strength, but I'm not sure it'll matter against the Eagles. Each week, I've found myself waiting for Kansas City or Buffalo to steamroll a quality opponent in a message-sending, we're the best team in the NFL fashion. In reality, it's been the Eagles who are making that statement on a weekly basis.

Since getting tripped up by Washington, and nearly stumbling against Indy the week after, the Eagles have ripped off 40, 35 and 48 points in wins over Green Bay, Tennessee and the Giants. The offense is rolling to the tune of 463 yards per game over that span, while Jalen Hurts has established himself as the MVP frontrunner with four games remaining.

Playing at home with a healthy-ish Fields -- he's dealing with an illness, as of Wednesday -- the Bears will have a chance to make things interesting for a half, but I'm not picking against the Eagles right now – even as their Christmas Eve showdown with the Cowboys looms.

The pick: Eagles 31 – Bears 20

Kansas City Chiefs (-14.0) at Houston Texans

We took a risk – albeit a calculated one – last week and trusted the Cowboys to blow the doors off of the Texans at home. Despite the last 10 home favorites of at least 16.5 points going 7-3 ATS entering Week 14, the Cowboys clearly didn't take Houston seriously and were in grave danger of losing outright.

While Houston gets this game at home, it feels like we're trapped in a similar situation. The last 10 teams to be favored by at least 14.0 points on the road are just 2-7-1 ATS. With that said, it's hard to see the Texans sneaking up on an elite opponent two weeks in a row – especially with no Dameon Pierce. It's equally difficult to imagine Patrick Mahomes throwing three bad interceptions and quickly squandering a 27-point lead two weeks in a row.

These big spreads have been a thorn in our side all season, but I'm not reversing course on the Texans after last week. Give me the Chiefs to win and cover.

The pick: Chiefs 33 – Texans 17

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

With Dallas looking plenty fallible last week, and the Jags exorcising a decade's worth of demons in Tennessee, this is suddenly a meaningful game. I'll even go one step further and use the T-word: this is officially tricky.

The Cowboys are absolutely the better team, and the Jags have conned us into thinking they're legitimate multiple times this season. But this game is in Jacksonville, and the Jags can at least talk themselves into the possibility of catching the Titans – they play again at Garrard Field in Week 18 – for the AFC South title. Even so, buying in on the Jaguars is an incredibly dangerous proposition, especially when you recall the big-cat-on-big-cat beatdown the Lions put on them just two weeks ago.

You can also make the argument that Dallas survived its trap game last week and won't suffer that kind of letdown two weeks in a row. No matter how you slice it, the Cowboys should win this game – and they'll definitely win it if the Jags continue to struggle to run the ball (67.0 YDS/G in last four games). Jacksonville won't be able to count on winning the turnover battle 4-0 like it did against Tennessee.

While acknowledging Trevor Lawrence's continued ascent toward borderline-stardom, I simply can't get myself to back the Jags here. I've been hurt too many times.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Jaguars 21

Detroit Lions (+1.0) at New York Jets

After a 1-6 start, the Lions have improbably won five of their last six games and are suddenly knocking on the door of the NFC Wild Card race. More importantly, Detroit has covered all six of those games, including a convincing victory over the Vikings last Sunday.

Coming out of Week 14, the Lions would likely be power-rated ahead of Minnesota, and a case could be made they're looking like the fourth-best team in the NFC. I have Detroit behind Philly, Dallas and San Francisco, but the Lions have looked decisively better than teams like the Bucs, Commanders, Giants and Seahawks.

The Jets, meanwhile, are clinging to postseason hopes in the AFC, although back-to-back losses at Minnesota and Buffalo leave them on the outside looking in. Defensively, the Jets remain one of the best teams in the entire NFL, but they're still struggling to convert yards into points with Mike White at quarterback.

There's no doubt White is a significant upgrade over Zach Wilson, and he made some really impressive throws last week in adverse weather. But he also took some huge hits and was banged up to the point that he wound up in the hospital after last week's 20-12 loss to Buffalo.

If White plays this week, I like the Jets to snap Jared Goff's five-game no-turnovers streak and win a close one at home. Detroit is 2-3 SU away from the Charles Rogers Dome this season. This will be easily their toughest road test since Week 7 at Dallas.

The pick: Jets 23 – Lions 21

Atlanta Falcons (+4.0) at New Orleans Saints

While both of these teams are improbably still alive for the NFC South title, this is a game that will likely be buried in the noon window. However, we'll get our first glimpse of Desmond Ridder at quarterback for the Falcons, who placed Marcus Mariota on IR earlier this week. Mariota promptly decided to peace out for what sounds like the remainder of the season.

Ridder has literally not taken a single snap since the preseason, but as an older prospect with multiple years as a starter in college, the hope is that he'll be about as NFL-ready as a third-round pick can be. Whether Arthur Smith is willing to open things up and play a more aggressive style with Ridder will be worth noting. 

The Saints aren't exactly a bad matchup these days, but this is still a league-average defense, and it won't be an easy environment for a rookie quarterback. From a watchability standpoint, and as a Drake London fantasy manager, I'm hopeful that Ridder can provide Atlanta with a spark.

I'll take the Saints to win the game and cover, but we'll come away from Week 15 feeling good about Ridder.

The pick: Saints 23 – Falcons 17

Sunday Late Games

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) at Denver Broncos

This matchup should not be allowed. Very mean by the schedule makers. 

We know for sure that Kyler Murray is done for the season, but with Russell Wilson in concussion protocol this could end up being a duel between Colt McCoy and Brett Rypien. I will maintain that the Cardinals are the better team – I actually thought they vastly out-played New England for three quarters in Week 14 – but I'm not sure we can trust Arizona to stay out of its own way. 

As far as backups go, McCoy is on the higher end for me, but the Cards' offense needs Murray's mobility to function at a high level. McCoy took six sacks last week and had his arm hit on an interception that essentially sealed Arizona's fate. To McCoy's credit, he didn't get much help from Hollywood Brown or DeAndre Hopkins. Brown had a drop on a key 4th down, while Hopkins' unforced fumble – which New England returned for a touchdown – flipped the entire game.

As it seems to do every week, the Broncos' defense will keep them in this game. We can count on Arizona to make some killer mistakes, but if it's Rypien at quarterback for Denver, I'm not sure I'm ready to trust him for four quarters. I didn't think I'd say this, but Wilson actually strung together multiple competent drives in a row before the concussion. 

Reluctantly – extremely reluctantly – I'll take Arizona to win outright with a weird final score on the road.

The pick: Cardinals 18 – Broncos 16

New England Patriots (-1.0) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Patriots got the job done in Arizona on Monday night, but it was far from a convincing overall effort. In fact, if Kyler Murray doesn't tear his ACL on the second play of the game, I'm convinced the Cardinals win that game. 

New England's defense does get credit for stepping up in a major way in the second half. Colt McCoy was under siege for most of the night, and Arizona didn't score a single point in the second half. But the Cardinals also had a ton of unforced errors, and it's impossible to account for the loss of Murray.

Going back on the road, on a short week, against another desperate team puts New England in a tough spot. But the Raiders essentially saw their slim postseason chances evaporate before their eyes last Thursday in Los Angeles.  Derek Carr played his worst game in the last two seasons, and Las Vegas completely fell asleep at the wheel of a game it acted like it had already won before the opening kickoff. Against all odds, the Raiders found a way to sink lower than losing to the guy who asked why he'd ever be considered for an NFL coaching job.

With the Raiders' season essentially lost and the Pats still battling for a playoff spot, I'll take New England to win. I'm expecting a close game, however – thanks in part to Vegas holding a significant rest advantage.

The pick: Patriots 23 – Raiders 21

Tennessee Titans (+2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers took a brutal loss to the Raiders two weeks ago, but after dispatching the Dolphins behind a masterful game from Justin Herbert, they're back in I wouldn't want to face that team in the Wild Card territory. 

The Titans, meanwhile, have careened to three straight losses and are in danger of letting their tight grip on the AFC South slip away. Last week, they looked to be well on their way to another trouncing of the Jaguars in Nashville, but four turnovers later the Titans found themselves on the wrong end of a blowout. All of the sudden, the Titans' air of we can hang with anyone on any week has evaporated. 

Now, we have to keep in mind that the Chargers are still the Chargers, and one win against Bad Tua doesn't erase their past transgressions. But with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams healthy, and Herbert playing at an ultra-high level, this is clearly a different team.

On paper, this could be a perfect bounceback spot for Tennessee, which should have no trouble establishing Derrick Henry and running all over the worst rush defense in the league. Whether Los Angeles' defense can hold up is a major concern, though the Titans have concerns of their own on that side of the field.

I'll ride with the Chargers to take advantage of a badly depleted secondary and a Tennessee pass defense that's sunk to 28th in EPA, 28th in air yards per attempt (7.6), 31st in yards allowed (283.7) and 31st in touchdowns allowed (25). This number moving from 3.0 to 2.5 pushes me toward LA.

The pick: Chargers 30 – Titans 27

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It's not often we get a chance to take a victory lap, so here goes: we were all over the Bengals last week – so much so that I declared it my Bet of the Year on the Week 14 edition of the RotoWire Sports Betting Podcast. After deciding to permanently abandon betting the Seahawks, we've quietly strung together a couple of Bets Bet wins a row.

I'll admit, I'm tempted to run it back with Cincinnati again this week. If it weren't for some major injury questions surrounding Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson, I most certainly would. The Bengals are running hot and Joe Burrow continues to pick up steam with each passing week.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay… well, I'm not sure we needed any more evidence, but last week's laugher against Brock Purdy confirmed what we've known for several weeks: the Buccaneers are so lucky they're in the NFC South. Had it not been for multiple appalling decisions by the Saints down the stretch in Week 13, we'd be looking at a four-way tie for first place in the division. The Saints robbed us of that, and they won't be forgiven.

Even if the Bengals end up being down a couple of their most-talented players, I trust Burrow and the NFL's third-ranked offense to outscore a Bucs team that looks completely broken. Quite simply, the Bucs cannot run the ball, and teams know it. That's not a recipe for success against an underrated Bengals defense that ranks ninth in pressure rate despite blitzing at a well-below-league-average rate.

The pick: Bengals 24 – Buccaneers 17

Sunday Night Football

New York Giants (+4.5) at Washington Commanders

This is a rematch of the 20-20 banger from Week 13 that concluded with a good ol' fashioned punt-off. This time around, the Commanders are coming off of a bye, while the Giants are coming off of getting smacked around by the best team in the NFC. 

The loser of this game will find itself in major jeopardy when it comes to making the playoffs, so we'll need to be on high alert for hijinks, antics, as well as skylarks, from both teams. It's tough to get a strong read on this game, but I'll lean Washington.

Coming off of the bye is undoubtedly an advantage, as is getting this game at home. Saquon Barkley also hasn't looked like himself of late and played only 20 snaps last week. The Giants will find a way to keep it close and narrowly cover, but I'll take the Commanders to win straight up.

The pick: Commanders 24 – Giants 20

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (+7.0) at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay opted not to take its bye after the London game in Week 5 – a decision that the Packers likely regret considering their demise began overseas and they went on to drop six of their next seven games. Coming out of their week off, the Packers are still hanging by a thread in the NFC Wild Card race, but they'll likely need to win out to have any chance to crash the party.

That quest begins Monday night against the Rams and their newly minted starting quarterback. If Baker Mayfield can step in and win a game with two days to learn an offense, you have to wonder what he's capable of with 10 days to prepare. 

Something tells me the Packers will be ready for Mayfield in a way the Raiders clearly were not, but the Green Bay defense has been susceptible to big plays all season. Before the bye, the Packers allowed Justin Fields to have by far the most efficient passing day of his career (20-25, 254 yards). Green Bay has been especially bad against the run, however, and I'm not convinced Los Angeles can exploit that weakness. The Rams rank ahead of only Tampa Bay in yards per attempt and ahead of only the Bucs and Chargers in yards per game.

Green Bay is yet to post a single convincing victory this season, and while I don't think it happens here, the gap in healthy talent between these teams – even if Aaron Donald returns – is significant. I fully expect Green Bay to come out slowly and have its usual array of disjointed possessions, but in the end I can't put my money on Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field in mid-December.

Packers win and (narrowly) cover at home to set up an absolute must-win game at Miami on Christmas Day.

The pick: Packers 28 – Rams 20