This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Finally a strong week (11-4 overall, 4-1 in the Super Contest), though I lost my best bet (Jets.) I still have a big hole out of which to dig, but at least the exit is visible again.
This week, I especially like the Redskins (if Case Keenum plays), and I also have a good feeling about the Ravens, Eagles and Raiders. I feel shakiest about the Broncos.
For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
49ers -10 at Cardinals
I wanted to be on the Niners, but I made this line only 7.5, so the Cardinals it is. Maybe San Francisco blows them out, but this is a huge road number on a short week against a team that's not a total doormat. Take the points.
49ers 23 - 16
LONDON GAME
Texans -2 vs Jaguars
I had the Jaguars as 2.5-point favorites because I didn't realize the game was in London. Take away the home-field advantage, and it's closer to a pick 'em, so I'm taking the points.
Texans 20 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Redskins +9.5 at Bills
With Case Keenum at quarterback, I had this line at 6.5, so I'm on Washington. Keenum has 10 days to recover from his concussion Thursday night, so I'm hoping he can make it back. If Dwayne Haskins were starting, I'd probably have this line right about 9.5, but either way I'll take the points.
Bills 20 - 13
Titans +4
Finally a strong week (11-4 overall, 4-1 in the Super Contest), though I lost my best bet (Jets.) I still have a big hole out of which to dig, but at least the exit is visible again.
This week, I especially like the Redskins (if Case Keenum plays), and I also have a good feeling about the Ravens, Eagles and Raiders. I feel shakiest about the Broncos.
For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
49ers -10 at Cardinals
I wanted to be on the Niners, but I made this line only 7.5, so the Cardinals it is. Maybe San Francisco blows them out, but this is a huge road number on a short week against a team that's not a total doormat. Take the points.
49ers 23 - 16
LONDON GAME
Texans -2 vs Jaguars
I had the Jaguars as 2.5-point favorites because I didn't realize the game was in London. Take away the home-field advantage, and it's closer to a pick 'em, so I'm taking the points.
Texans 20 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Redskins +9.5 at Bills
With Case Keenum at quarterback, I had this line at 6.5, so I'm on Washington. Keenum has 10 days to recover from his concussion Thursday night, so I'm hoping he can make it back. If Dwayne Haskins were starting, I'd probably have this line right about 9.5, but either way I'll take the points.
Bills 20 - 13
Titans +4 at Panthers
I made this line 4.5, so I'm narrowly on the Panthers who are a good buy-low after the blowout loss to the 49ers. Lay the wood.
Panthers 27 - 21
Bears +5 at Eagles
The Bears strike me as a broken team with a failed prospect at quarterback and a coach that's lost the thread. The Eagles are in the thick of the NFC East race, and their stout front matches up well against the Bears dink and dunk offense. Lay the wood.
Eagles 26 - 17
Vikings -2.5 at Chiefs
This is exactly where I set the line. The Chiefs pass rush has been better the last two weeks, and that will be the key against Kirk Cousins who can't improvise but is good when he has a clean pocket. This is a coin flip, but give me the Vikings.
Vikings 27 - 24
Jets -3 at Dolphins
I liked this a lot better when it opened at minus 5.5. I set this line at exactly three, but I'll still take the Dolphins who at least seem to respect their coaches and organization somewhat.
Dolphins 24 - 23
Colts pick 'em at Steelers
Another game with my exact number. I suppose I'll take the Colts who pass protect well and have the better quarterback.
Colts 23 - 20
LATE GAMES
Lions +2 at Raiders
This was an easy call as I think the Raiders are at least as good as the Lions, and they're at home, laying less than the full three. Take Oakland.
Raiders 27 - 23
Buccaneers +6 at Seahawks
Yet another game where my line is the same as the market's. You never know which Jameis Winston you'll get, but the Bucs match up well against the Seahawks' run-heavy scheme. Take the points.
Seahawks 28 - 23
Browns -3 at Broncos
I have a Browns feeling here, but I made the line 1.5, and now it's all the way up to three. As such, I'll take the home dog with a total unknown at quarterback.
Browns 20 - 19
Packers -3.5 at Chargers
I made this line four, so I'm narrowly on the Packers who seem to have peak Aaron Rodgers back.
Packers 30 - 24
SUNDAY NIGHT
Patriots -3.5 at Ravens
The Patriots cover every week, and usually I'm on the opposite side. But I'm still not sold on their offense, and this is the first good team they've played all year. Take the points.
Ravens 20 - 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Cowboys -7 at Giants
The Cowboys manhandled the Eagles two weeks ago, and they could do the same to the Giants now that Tyron Smith is back. But Daniel Jones played out of his mind last week, and the Cowboys defense is vulnerable. Take the points.
Cowboys 31 - 27
For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
Last week, I went 11-4, lost my best bet (the Jets), and went 4-1 in the Super Contest. I'm now 55-66 on the year, 3-5 on best bets and 16-23-1 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.
