Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 11 - With Video

For the second week in a row, my best bets (2-0) did well while my overall picks (6-7) did not, validating the idea behind singling out the games about which I have stronger leans.

This week, I have only one best bet for now - the Bears - though as usual I reserve the right to add or subtract in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Bills +5.5 at Dolphins

The standalone games have been such brutal blowouts, but the Bills typically show up, and I'd expect their defense to keep them in this game. Back Buffalo.

Dolphins 23 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Texans +3 at Browns

The Browns annihilated the Bengals on national TV last week, while the Texans are trotting out Ryan Mallet for his first start. Seems like a good occasion to buy low. Back Houston.

Texans 21 - 20

Vikings +3 at Bears

I like the Bears here as only three-point favorites at home coming off the disastrous loss in Green Bay. The Vikings don't have the firepower to hurt Chicago, and the Bears should move the ball consistently at home. Back the Bears.

Bears 27 - 20

Seahawks +1.5 at Chiefs

These teams are awfully similar with strong running games, strong defenses and no real weapons in the passing game. I like the Chiefs at home laying less than the full three. Back Kansas City.

Chiefs 23 - 20

Falcons +1.5 at Panthers

The Panthers looked terrible on Monday night, but now they're at home against an Atlanta squad that doesn't travel well and laying less than the full three. Back Carolina.

Panthers 27 - 23

Bengals +7 at Saints

Usually I like to buy low, but Andy Dalton looks lost, the Bengals offensive line was abymal last week, and teams rarely get back on track in New Orleans. Lay the wood.

Saints 30 - 20

Buccaneers +7 at Redskins

The Redskins have the better quarterback, the better coach, the better defense and are at home. Back Washington.

Redskins 31 - 17

Broncos -9.5 at Rams

I want to take the Broncos, but I have a hard time doing the obvious here because it's clear every square bettor will be on Denver, otherwise this line would be higher. I guess I'll hold my nose and take the Rams.

Broncos 27 - 21

49ers -4 at Giants

I've taken the Giants almost every week, and it's cost me. I want to stop doing it, especially now that they're out of contention, but I have to think the value is good here. Back New York.

49ers 23 - 20

LATE GAMES

Raiders +10 at Chargers

The Raiders usually play the Chargers tough, and I assume Oakland will show up given their desperation for the win and their familiarity with the opponent. Back the Raiders.

Chargers 23 - 16

Eagles +5.5 at Packers

I could go either way on this. Five and a half sounds like a lot, but in a game with an O/U of 56, it's more like 4 in a game projected for less scoring. I like what Mark Sanchez did against the Panthers, but this is a road game against a slightly better defense. Back Green Bay.

Packers 33 - 27

Lions +1.5 at Cardinals

Can I fade both these teams? The Cardinals are outperforming their peripherals and downgrading to a backup quarterback, while the Lions send Matt Stafford on the road against a decent defense. My brain says Lions, my gut says the Cardinals force some Stafford into some mistakes on the road. For better or worse, I'll listen to my brain this time. Back Detroit.

Lions 20 - 19

SUNDAY NIGHT

Patriots +3 at Colts

When this line opened at 2.5 I was torn, but now that it's crept up to three, I'll take the points. As great as Andrew Luck can be, I trust Tom Brady more. Back New England.

Patriots 30 - 27

MONDAY NIGHT

Steelers -6 at Titans

I despise the Titans and will almost certainly get this wrong no matter who I pick (I actually got it right last week, but rest assured that's an anomaly.) Think I'll take the home dog because the Steelers defense isn't good. Back Tennessee.

Steelers 24 - 20

I went 6-7 in Week 10 to put me at 81-64-2 on the season. Best bets are 14-11-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.