Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 11

Last week wasn't great -- 6-6-1, and though I won my best bet (Bears), I went 2-3 in the Super Contest. 

This week, I felt the lines were pretty tight -- in fact, my numbers were within half a point of the market's on seven of 14 games. I especially like the Cowboys and Chargers, while I'm dicey on the Saints, Bears and Eagles. 

For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Steelers +3 at Browns

I made this line three, so I was on the Browns when it was 2.5, but now that it's three it's a coin flip. Give me the team with the better coach -- the Steelers. 

Browns 20 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Cowboys -4.5 at Lions

I don't know whether Matthew Stafford will play, and if he doesn't, I like the Cowboys to roll. Even if he plays, the Cowboys should run roughshod over Detroit's soft defense. Lay the wood. 

Cowboys 27 - 17

Saints -5.5 at Buccaneers

I made this line exactly 5.5, so this is another coin flip for me, but I'll take the Saints to bounce back after an inexplicably terrible week. 

Saints 30 - 23

Falcons +5.5 at Panthers

Maybe the Falcons have turned a corner on defense, but I'll need to see it for more than one game before I buy in. Give me the Panthers at home, coming off a tough loss. 

Panthers 31 - 24

Jaguars +3 at Colts

I made this line four, assuming Jacoby Brissett will play. Maybe Nick Foles gives the Jaguars a lift, but it's hard to know how he'll perform after the long layoff. Lay the wood. 

Colts 24 - 20

Broncos +10.5 at Vikings

I made the line exactly 10.5, so this is yet another coin flip. I'll take the Broncos who play good defense and might keep this one close enough. 

Vikings 24 - 16

Jets +1 at Redskins

I made this 1.5, so it's essentially a toss-up. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the Redskins, but no matter what side you're on the smell isn't good. 

Redskins 23 - 20

Bills -6 at Dolphins

I made this line three, so this strikes me as too much. The Dolphins have gotten better every week, and I expect them to hang here at home. 

Bills 21 - 17

Texans +4 at Ravens

The Texans are coming off a bye, but without J.J. Watt I think they'll have a hard time stopping the Ravens' offense. Deshaun Watson has the capacity to shoot it out with them, but his offensive line is poor, and his coach will probably blow it in crunch time. Take the Ravens. 

Ravens 31 - 23

LATE GAMES

Cardinals +11.5 at 49ers

The Niners got exposed a little bit against Seattle, and they played a full overtime game on Monday night. Give me the Cardinals and the points. 

49ers 27 - 23

Patriots -3.5 at Eagles

I made this line exactly 3.5, but I'll take a well coached Eagles team at home to put up a fight. Moreover, the way to beat the Eagles is by stretching the field, and the Patriots are ill-equipped to do that. 

Patriots 26 - 23 

Bengals +10.5 at Raiders

Another game where my number was exactly the same as the market's. Normally, I'd hold my nose and take the Bengals, but if anything the Raiders have been underrated this year. Lay the wood. 

Raiders 30 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Bears +6.5 at Rams

I liked this a lot better at seven, but I made the line six, so I'm still on the Bears. Mitch Trubisky makes me nervous, but I like the Bears defense against Jared Goff. 

Rams 20 - 16

MONDAY NIGHT

Chiefs -3.5 vs Chargers (Mexico City)

The sky's the limit for the Chiefs, but the Chargers are getting better, and they've had 10 days off to get ready. Take the points. 

Chargers 27 - 24

For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

Last week, I went 6-6-1, won my best bet (the Bears), and went 2-3 in the Super Contest. I'm now 68-78-2 on the year, 5-5 on best bets and 22-26-2 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.