This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week I needed to go 10-6 to get to .500, and I went 12-4 instead, putting me four games over .500 for the year. That's not where I wanted to be at the start of the year -- it still loses money with the vig -- but given my struggles in the first half of the year, it could have been a lot worse. I also lost my best bet (Giants) last week, finishing with a disappointing 8-9 overall mark. The Giants were my only loss in the Super Contest (4-1), and I wound up 43-40-2 there too, despite a terrible start.
This week, my strongest lean is probably the Saints.
SATURDAY GAMES
Bills +2.5 at Texans
I made this game a pick 'em, so I'm on the Bills, but I liked it a lot better when the line was the full three. The Bills' secondary is a tough matchup for Deshaun Watson and his receivers, while the Bills should be able to move the ball against an average Texans group. Maybe J.J. Watt's return gives Houston a significant lift, but it's unlikely he'll have a full snap-load. Bottom line, I see this game going down to the wire, so I'd rather have the points.
Texans 21 - 20
Titans +5 at Patriots
The Patriots are coming off one of the bigger upset losses in recent memory, while the Titans seem to have a healthy Derrick Henry back, bulldozing everything in his path. It would seem to be
Last week I needed to go 10-6 to get to .500, and I went 12-4 instead, putting me four games over .500 for the year. That's not where I wanted to be at the start of the year -- it still loses money with the vig -- but given my struggles in the first half of the year, it could have been a lot worse. I also lost my best bet (Giants) last week, finishing with a disappointing 8-9 overall mark. The Giants were my only loss in the Super Contest (4-1), and I wound up 43-40-2 there too, despite a terrible start.
This week, my strongest lean is probably the Saints.
SATURDAY GAMES
Bills +2.5 at Texans
I made this game a pick 'em, so I'm on the Bills, but I liked it a lot better when the line was the full three. The Bills' secondary is a tough matchup for Deshaun Watson and his receivers, while the Bills should be able to move the ball against an average Texans group. Maybe J.J. Watt's return gives Houston a significant lift, but it's unlikely he'll have a full snap-load. Bottom line, I see this game going down to the wire, so I'd rather have the points.
Texans 21 - 20
Titans +5 at Patriots
The Patriots are coming off one of the bigger upset losses in recent memory, while the Titans seem to have a healthy Derrick Henry back, bulldozing everything in his path. It would seem to be a great buy-low spot for the Patriots who are especially tough to beat at home and will no doubt have a sound game plan, but the Titans with Ryan Tannehill have been roughly as good as the Patriots over the second half of the year. Moreover, the Patriots' strength is their secondary, while the Titans offense is largely built around Henry's running. The Titans secondary is exploitable, but Tom Brady has been shaky all year, and the Patriots simply don't have field stretchers on their roster anymore. Accordingly, I made this line three and am taking the Titans.
Patriots 23 - 20
SUNDAY GAMES
Vikings +7.5 at Saints
The Vikings are a solid team, but Kirk Cousins lacks the improvisational skills to handle a strong pass rush. Moreover, Adam Thielen hasn't been himself since hurting his hamstring mid-season, and it's unclear whether Dalvin Cook is completely healthy. Cook is a big key because his work in the passing game on screens and dump-offs are Cousins' best bet to slow down an aggressive defense. The Saints are an unlucky 13-3, forced to play the opening round, as they're one of the top four teams in the league, and they're especially good at home. I'd expect Drew Brees to carve up a decent but not spectacular Vikings' defense, and New Orleans' defense to force Cousins into a couple mistakes. Lay the wood.
Saints 30 - 17
Seahawks -1.5 at Eagles
Doug Pederson has done a masterful job down the stretch the last three years -- even last year, the Eagles upset the Bears in Chicago and were driving in a close game in New Orleans before Alshon Jeffery dropped a 4th-down pass. And he's done it this year despite missing so many key players. But this week neither Zach Ertz nor Miles Sanders are locks to play, and Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks is out the for year. Meanwhile the Seahawks got some key players back on defense last week -- Jadeveon Clowney and Shaquill Griffin, and Russell Wilson is still at the top of his game. I expect this to be close, but give me the healthier team with the all-time great quarterback laying anything less than the full three.
Seahawks 27 - 24
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Last week, I went 12-4, lost my best bet (the Giants), and went 4-1 in the Super Contest. I finished 127-123-6 on the year, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.
