This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Week 13 was a mixed bag. I went 7-7 ATS, lost my best bet (again), the Broncos, but went 4-1 in the SuperContest.
This week I have a lot of coin flips -- Steelers-Vikings, Raiders-Chiefs, Cowboys-Team and Rams-Cardinals, but I feel especially good about the Panthers and Buccaneers.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Steelers +3 at Vikings
The Vikings are banged up, likely missing Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, their top two pass rushers and possibly their starting left tackle. The Steelers are healthier with T.J Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and maybe even Joe Haden back. That said, when I first saw this line, I loved the Vikings, so I'll stick with it.
Vikings 24 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Raiders +9.5 at Chiefs
The Chiefs destroyed the Raiders the first time they met in Las Vegas, and their defense has played well over the last month. The Raiders have been bad on both sides of the ball, except for the Thanksgiving Day game against the Cowboys. Maybe the Raiders turn it around, but I'll lay the wood.
Chiefs 30 - 20
Saints -5.5 at Jets
The Jets' defense is terrible, but the Saints are so banged up, missing both starting tackles, Alvin Kamara and DE Marcus Davenport last week, and now star kick returner and No. 2 WR Deonte Harris is suspended for a DUI and Cameron Jordan has Covid. Moreover, Taysom Hill is playing through finger and foot injuries. It's hard to find information yet about Kamara and the tackles for this
Week 13 was a mixed bag. I went 7-7 ATS, lost my best bet (again), the Broncos, but went 4-1 in the SuperContest.
This week I have a lot of coin flips -- Steelers-Vikings, Raiders-Chiefs, Cowboys-Team and Rams-Cardinals, but I feel especially good about the Panthers and Buccaneers.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Steelers +3 at Vikings
The Vikings are banged up, likely missing Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, their top two pass rushers and possibly their starting left tackle. The Steelers are healthier with T.J Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and maybe even Joe Haden back. That said, when I first saw this line, I loved the Vikings, so I'll stick with it.
Vikings 24 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Raiders +9.5 at Chiefs
The Chiefs destroyed the Raiders the first time they met in Las Vegas, and their defense has played well over the last month. The Raiders have been bad on both sides of the ball, except for the Thanksgiving Day game against the Cowboys. Maybe the Raiders turn it around, but I'll lay the wood.
Chiefs 30 - 20
Saints -5.5 at Jets
The Jets' defense is terrible, but the Saints are so banged up, missing both starting tackles, Alvin Kamara and DE Marcus Davenport last week, and now star kick returner and No. 2 WR Deonte Harris is suspended for a DUI and Cameron Jordan has Covid. Moreover, Taysom Hill is playing through finger and foot injuries. It's hard to find information yet about Kamara and the tackles for this week, but this is a lot of points for a team this banged up. Take the Jets.
Saints 23 - 20
49ers +1 at Bengals
I get the Bengals wrong every week. One week they're good, the next they're terrible. I have a Niners hunch, but you might want to fade it.
49ers 27 - 23
Jaguars +9 at Titans
The Jaguars defense is okay, but the offense runs through Carlos Hyde now with James Robinson banged up and in the doghouse, and that won't cut it. Lay the wood.
Titans 31 - 17
Ravens +2.5 at Browns
The Ravens have lost their entire secondary, but I'm not sure it matters against the Browns. Still, I have a Browns feeling here -- they can win in a slugfest, and Lamar Jackson doesn't seem entirely right.
Browns 20 - 17
Falcons +2.5 at Panthers
The Panthers are terrible offensively, but they're coming off a bye, are at home and have a far better defense. Lay the wood.
Panthers 24 -16
Cowboys -4 at Team
This is about the right line. I have a Cowboys feeling, but the Team has played well and should give them a game at home. I'll take the points.
Cowboys 26 - 23
Seahawks -7.5 at Texans
The Texans are awful, especially with Davis Mills, but this is a huge line for a bad Seahawks team on the road. Take the points.
Seahawks 24 - 17
LATE GAMES
Lions +7.5 at Broncos
The Lions finally got their win, but now they have to travel to Denver and face a tough Broncos defense. Lay the wood.
Broncos 31 - 13
Giants +10.5 at Chargers
With Daniel Jones out and Mike Glennon concussed, the Giants might be turning to Jake Fromm, who has yet to throw an NFL pass. That said, anything's better than Glennon, the Chargers don't have a home field advantage, and they can't stop the run. Take the points.
Chargers 24 - 16
Bills +3 at Buccaneers
It's strange to me this line is only three, as the Bucs are the better team and they're at home, while the Bills are traveling on a short week after being on the receiving end of a brutal smash-mouth running attack. Take the Bucs.
Buccaneers 37 - 27
SUNDAY NIGHT
Bears +12.5 at Packers
The Packers own the Bears in this rivalry and are coming off the bye, while the Bears looked bad at home against the Cardinals. Lay the wood.
Packers 31 - 13
MONDAY NIGHT
Rams +2.5 at Cardinals
The Rams were favored at Green Bay a couple weeks ago for God knows what reason, and they continue to get the respect of the odds makers even though the Cardinals have been the better team all year. Just keep in mind I am always wrong about the Cardinals. In fact, this has been the case so consistently, I will actually take the Rams here.
Rams 27 - 24
Last week, I went into 7-7 ATS to go to 94-97-3 on the year, lost my best bet (Broncos) to go to 9-4, and went 4-1 in the SuperContest to go 34-30-1. Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.
