This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Beating the Book
By Christopher Liss
RotoWire Managing Editor
Betting Tips
Another tough week brings me to 1-9, but the Super Bowl has got to be worth 10 points given how many people bet it - and do so disproportionately. Of course, if that's true, then a loss makes me 1-19. Seriously, though, I wouldn't be surprised with any mark over a 10-game sample. I'd rather it not be in the playoffs when it makes up the entirety of my record, but it is what it is. Go ahead and kill me in the comments if you like.
SUPER BOWL XLIV
Saints +5.5 vs. Colts
There's not much mystery about this game. The Colts, who could be undefeated, have been the most consistent team all year. And they have the league's best player who destroyed the league's best defense in a way that no one, not even Philip Rivers at home, came close to doing.
But the Saints have been the best team all year, with the biggest point differential and one that went 7-1 on the road (and might have gone 8-0 if they didn't pull Drew Brees in Week 17). So you have the team that was consistently good with the league's best player against the team whose "A" game was better than anyone's, but looked out of sorts at times, never more so than in the fourth quarter against the Vikings when they couldn't close the deal no matter how many fumbles Minnesota handed them.
So the issue here is really whether the Saints play their "A" game or bring something less. If it's the former, they cover, and possibly win outright. If it's the latter, the Colts win and likely cover. So which Saints team shows up this week, the one against Arizona and New England, or the one against the Vikings and Dallas?
I honestly don't know. I can't envision New Orleans' defense getting to Peyton Manning with any consistency, and in that case, I expect him to carve them up. On the other side of the ball, I could see it either way - Brees lighting up a very solid Colts pass defense. Or Brees having enough trouble with it to put the Saints in the hole. I'd like to root for New Orleans, and they seem like the savvy play with the line moving up and most people on the Colts, but I'm sticking with Indy because I feel more confident they'll play their best. Back the Colts.
Colts 31 - 21
I went 0-2 last week to go 1-9 overall on the playoffs. I was 131-122-3 on the season. From 1999-2008, we were 1308-1140 - not including ties - (53.4 percent).
Article first appeared 2/3/10
