Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 6 Waivers Preview

Week 5 was a throwback to the late 2019s / early 2020s, featuring a bunch of shootouts and some huge fantasy scores from QBs, WRs and even a few TEs. There were still some solid performances from RBs, of course, but only four topped 100 rushing yards and two scored multiple touchdowns, with the only go to do both being Jags backup Tank Bigsby with his 13-101-2 rushing line.

Alvin Kamara and Kyren Williams were the only backs to reach 80 percent snap share Week 5, with just four others hitting 70 percent. It was a discouraging week for some of the biggest names at the position, including Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall, but there were actually positive signs in terms of both workload and production for many of the lower-confidence starting RBs, namely Chuba Hubbard, Javonte Williams, D'Andre Swift and Kareem Hunt.

The upcoming week will be an interesting one for waivers in a lot of leagues, as we just saw solid workloads from fill-in starters like Tyrone Tracy and Alexander Mattison and also had four more starting RBs suffer injuries (albeit with two of those heading into bye weeks). You'll find the full breakdown below, starting with our Week 5/6 injury report...

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

Aaron Jones (groin / week-to-week)

De'Von Achane (concussion / day-to-day)

Travis Etienne (shoulder / day-to-day)

Zack Moss (ankle / day-to-day)

Jones was well on his way to a big day with 54 total yards in the first quarter against a strong Jets defense, only to miss the final three quarters after suffering a hip injury. He went for an MRI on Monday, which means there's concern about a structural issue that might impact him beyond the upcoming Week 6 bye. Early reports suggest he avoided a severe or season-ending injury but likely will miss some time.

Achane also has a bye ahead, and in his case that means there's a better than 50/50 chance to avoid missed games, although we just saw Giants WR Malik Nabers unable to clear concussion protocol the week after a Thursday game. Achane will have 14 days rather than 10, with Miami's next game being Oct. 20 at Indianapolis (one week before a potential Tua Tagovailoa return).

Etienne hurt his shoulder Week 4 but returned to the game and took 13 of the final 19 RB carries/targets in a loss to Houston. He wasn't as fortunate this week, getting 58% of snaps and nine touches in the first half but then only 17% of snaps and three touches in the second half (with Doug Pederson revealing after the game that Etienne had aggravated his shoulder injury). Tank Bigsby's strong play this season is the other red flag for Etienne's fantasy value, potentially creating a timeshare even if ETN puts the shoulder injury behind him soon.

Moss suffered a new injury this past Sunday, late in the fourth quarter of an eventual overtime loss. It looked bad, like a potentially severe high-ankle sprain, so it was shocking to see him back in the game not long after. That didn't last, however, as he looked hesitant on a carry and then sat out the rest of the game, giving way to Chase Brown.

Missed Week 5

Jonathan Taylor (high ankle / week-to-week)

Joe Mixon (high ankle / day-to-day)

Devin Singletary (groin / day-to-day)

Dameon Pierce (hamstring / day-to-day)

Zamir White (groin / week-to-week)

Jaylen Warren (knee / week-to-week)

RB Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle / week-to-week)

Pierce and Singletary returned to practice Friday as limited participants, whereas everyone else above failed to practice at all last week. As a result, lead backs in Week 5 included Trey Sermon, Tyrone Tracy, Dare Ogunbowale and Alexander Mattison. 

We also saw Najee Harris get more snaps than usual, which ultimately amounted to a fifth straight game in the same range of 9-14 PPR points. Harris will eventually blow up for a two-TD game with 25 fantasy points — after he's been removed from a lot of lineups — and then he'll go back to scoring 10.2 points when everyone has him in their lineups the following week. In any case, it sounds like Warren and Patterson both will miss at least one more game, leaving Aaron Shampklin as Harris' backup

Christian McCaffrey (IR - Achilles / eligible for Week 6 return)

Isiah Pacheco (fibula / out until at least November)

Audric Estime (IR - ankle / eligible Week 6)

MarShawn Lloyd (IR - ankle / eligible Week 6)

Nick Chubb (PUP - knee / eligible since Week 5)

Jonathon Brooks (NFI - knee / eligible since Week 5)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (NFI - illness / eligible Week 5)

Kendre Miller (PUP - hamstring / eligible Week 5)

None of the RBs on injury lists to start the season returned when first eligible Week 5, although Chubb, Edwards-Helaire and Miller all made it back to practice. Estime and Lloyd are eligible after suffering injuries Week 1, but it's not clear either will have much of a rule even if ready to return this upcoming Sunday. There hasn't been much information on Brooks since coach Dave Canales said last Monday that the rookie wasn't ready to practice yet. A debut before Week 7 seems unlikely even if Brooks makes it back to practice within the next few days.

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week. Unless otherwise specified, all the stats below are from the current week only (full season stats are denoted by 'SZN').

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

Trending Up 📈

Josh Jacobs - 74% snaps / 20 of 27 RB opps / 94 total yards + TD

Javonte Williams - 60% snaps / 19 of 29 RB opps / 111 total yards

D'Andre Swift - 67% snaps / 23 of 33 RB opps / 120 total yards + TD

Kareem Hunt - 63% snaps / 28 of 35 RB opps (80%) / 117 total yards + TD

Rhamondre Stevenson - 16 of 23 RB opps / 92 total yards + TD + no fumbles

Rico Dowdle - 51% snaps / 22 of 32 RB opps / 114 total yards + TD

Ty Chandler - 82% snaps post-Q1 / 16 of 19 RB opps post-Q1

Alexander Mattison - 81% snaps pre-Q4 / 18 of 23 RB opps pre-Q4

Chase Brown - 100% snaps after Moss' ankle injury

Raheem Mostert - 60% snaps after Achane injury / 19 of 31 RB opps / 98 total yards

Jaylen Wright - 37% snaps after Achane injury / 12 of 31 RB opps / 13-86-0 rushing

Trey Sermon - 58% snaps / 16 of 24 RB opps / 63 total yards + six catches + TD

Tyrone Tracy - 62% snaps / 17 of 19 RB opps after Gray's fumble / 18-129-0 rushing

Tank Bigsby - 39% snaps / 14 of 31 RB opps / 129 total yards + two TDs

Dare Ogunbowale - 64% snaps / 22 of 34 RB opps / 87 total yards, six catches

Blake Corum - 14% snaps / 33 total yards/ first non-garbage-time snaps of the season

Swift was a headliner this week, albeit in a cupcake matchup against Carolina, as he not only put up big fantasy numbers for a second straight week but also split the goal-line carries with Roschon Johnson (with Swift scoring once from short range and Johnson doing so twice). Johnson had more luck at the goal line but was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 in the first half, so we'll call it a draw on the short-yardage performance. Johnson is bigger and stronger, but it's at least nice for Swift's fantasy managers to know that he's getting a portion of that work (rather than repeatedly being tackled at the 1-yard line and then ceding all the TDs to other backs).

Javonte Williams is another guy who was brutal at the beginning of the season but now seems to be settling in, putting up a 16-77-0 rushing line against the Jets in Week 4 and then a 13-61-0 line against the Raiders in Week 5. He still hasn't scored a TD this season but has multiple targets in every game, averaging 4.0 per week. In this past Sunday's win, Williams played 68% of snaps prior to sitting out the final five plays in garbage time.

The biggest value gainers this week may have been Kareem Hunt and Rico Dowdle, both of whom saw upticks in snap share and made good on it with over 100 total yards and a touchdown. Neither is truly a starting-quality RB, but there's an awful lot to be said for getting steady touches in a good offense. Both can be treated as RB2s, at least for now.

Also on this list are a bunch of fill-in starters and/or backups who saw the starter in front of them suffer an injury Week 5. That includes Tyrone Tracy, Trey Sermon, Alexander Mattison, Dare Ogunbowale, Chase Brown and Ty Chandler. It's not clear how long the injury-related opportunities will last, but for Mattison and Chase there's at least some chance they remain the starters once their injured teammate returns. And I'd also argue that Tracy has a chance to force a timeshare with Devin Singletary (groin) if he continues playing well, although I wouldn't necessarily bet on it and still think there's a good chance Singletary returns to RB2 value once he's back.

Trending Down 📉

Bijan Robinson - below 70% snaps for second straight week / 15 of 24 RB opps

Jordan Mason - 63% snaps / lost fumble

Travis Etienne (shoulder) - 59% snaps first half / 17% snaps second half

Jerome Ford - 59% snaps / 12 of 24 RB opps

Cam Akers - 33% snaps / 12 of 34 RB opps

Ray Davis - 3% snaps / zero carries (but two targets on two snaps)

Khalil Herbert - zero snaps on offense in consecutive games

Akers and Ford are living on borrowed time and saw their roles decline Week 5, suggesting the chance for fantasy value has come and gone. 

Robinson and Mason are obvious must-starts whose playing time remains strong compared to other backs but is trending in the wrong direction relative to what we saw from them Weeks 1-3. The 49ers even gave Isaac Guerendo a handful of carries this past Sunday, and that was before Mason's fourth-quarter fumble provided fuel for Arizona's comeback. 

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's depth chart moving forward. Backfields with a clear hierarchy/order won't be included unless there's a long-term injury to the starter and the backup situation is uncertain or confusing. 

A lot of the lesser starting RBs around the league solidified their roles over the past couple weeks — e.g. D'Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard, Kareem Hunt — but we still have some interesting material to work with below.

Messy Backfields

1. Jacksonville Jaguars 
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Cleveland Browns

Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are somewhat similar cases, although Travis Etienne is much more talented than Rachaad White and has a shoulder injury that's been impacting his playing time. Still, it's easy enough to see the similarities, with a young RB coming in and rushing more effectively than an incumbent starter (who remains clearly superior in the passing game). 

In the case of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, it appears the younger guy is genuinely better as a pure runner. With Etienne and Tank Bigsby that's a harder sell, even though Bigsby looks great this year. A healthy Etienne can't match Bigsby's power but is still faster, quicker and more agile. The question of when we'll see Etienne truly healthy is impossible to answer, with a shoulder injury having impacted his workloads in back-to-back games. He played 58% of snaps before halftime in Sunday's win over Indianapolis, before dripping to 17% snap share in the second half, with not only Bigsby but also D'Ernest Johnson taking away a chunk of the playing time. For now, it's hard to start any of Etienne, Bigsby, White or Irving with confidence, as double-digit touches can't be guaranteed.

Elsewhere, we have the woeful Browns, who just put D'Onta Foreman in a significant role for the second time this season. Jerome Ford topped 70% snap share and dominated touches in the other three games, but the combination of playing in a terrible offense, losing carries to Foreman some weeks and looking over his shoulder at Nick Chubb's eventual return has really sapped Ford's value. Foreman's usage this past Sunday wasn't even a garbage-time thing in the blowout loss at Washington; he took 50% of snaps and four carries in the first quarter and got six more touches thereafter.

On the Brink

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Las Vegas Raiders

These two offer some similarities, although Zack Moss (ankle) hasn't been nearly as bad as Zamir White (groin). Coach Antonio Pierce said early last week that he planned to give Alexander Mattison more playing time, and we later discovered that White would miss Week 5 with a groin injury. Mattison ended up taking 81% of snaps before the fourth quarter at Denver, with Ameer Abdullah then handling the end of the game with the Raiders down big. The question now is whether Mattison remains the clear lead back once White returns, and the answer may depend on how Mattison plays if White misses additional games beyond the one in Denver.

Moss, meanwhile, played 75% of snaps in Sunday's loss to Baltimore before injuring his ankle late in the fourth quarter, temporarily shutting down talk of Chase Brown usurping him after Week 4 saw Brown get about half the touches and slightly less than half the snaps in a win at Carolina. Brown's role against Baltimore was much lesser, but he continued to offer more than Moss on his touches, with speed seemingly making up for shortcomings in terms of pass blocking or ballcarrier vision. Moss returned for one snap/carry after his ankle injury but couldn't finish out the game. If he misses time, there's a chance Brown never gives the lead role back.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered each week. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Rico Dowdle - 56% 
2. Trey Sermon - 52% 
3. Ty Chandler - 28% (Week 6 bye) 
4. Tyrone Tracy - 23%
5. Dameon Pierce - 3% (hamstring)
6. Dare Ogunbowale - 1%
7. Justice Hill - 31%

Dowdle and Sermon are already taken in most competitive leagues, but far fewer people added Tracy, who started Sunday's win over Seattle in a timeshare but then dominated snaps/touches after Eric Gray's fumble at the end of New York's opening drive. The Giants now have a home game against a terrible Cincinnati defense, making Tracy a reasonable RB2 start if Devin Singletary is out again.

Confidence in the Houston guys is much lower, and obviously depends on both Joe Mixon's health and Pierce's. I think Pierce will be the lead runner if he returns before Mixon, considering Ogunbowale has long been a passing-down specialist and special-teams player (and Cam Akers doesn't seem to have the coaches' confidence). Ogunbowale took over as the lead in Sunday's win over Buffalo, but his shortcomings were rather apparent with 15 carries netting only 30 yards. He caught six of seven targets for 57 yards, however, so he'll still get the passing-down work if Pierce takes the lead role.

Chandler might have the highest short-term snap ceiling of all these guys, but it depends on Aaron Jones (hip) missing time after a Week 6 bye. Chandler isn't particularly good, with poor vision and indecisive running removing a lot of the value he might otherwise bring as a guy with 4.4 speed and decent receiving skills, but he should nonetheless be useful for fantasy if Jones misses time. Third-stringer Myles Gaskin took five snaps and three touches after Jones' injury during the London game Sunday, rarely subbing in for Chandler.

Bench Stashes

1. Bucky Irving - 57%
2. Tank Bigsby - 23%
3. Tyler Allgeier - 26%
4. Braelon Allen - 47%
5. Tyjae Spears - 59% 
6. Kimani Vidal - 2%
7. Blake Corum - 17% 
8. Jaylen Wright - 8%
9. Isaac Guerendo - 2%
10. Trey Benson - 24% 
11. Emanuel Wilson - 13% 
12. Roschon Johnson - 20% 
13. Antonio Gibson - 38%
14. Ray Davis - 8%
15. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 11%
16. Khalil Herbert - 10%
17. Audric Estime - 1%

There's no shortage of excellent stash candidates right now, starting with Irving and Bigsby as looming threats to the starter ahead of them, although relative to consensus I'm probably less bullish on those guys and more bullish on injury handcuffs like Allgeier, Allen and Spears. I also really like Vidal as a bench stash, as there's at least some chance he replaces an ineffective Gus Edwards as the No. 2 RB after a bye week. J.K. Dobbins started the season great but then struggled Weeks 3-4, and he still needs to be viewed through the lens of extremely high injury risk.

Corum and Guerendo saw their roles expand Week 5, and both now appear to be one teammate injury away from huge workloads in top offensive systems. The story isn't much different for Wright, as it's hardly far-fetched to consider the possibility of De'Von Achane (concussion) and Raheem Mostert being injured at the same time.

Drop Candidates

1. Jerome Ford - 84% (shallow leagues)
2. Zamir White - 52%
3. Ezekiel Elliott - 38% (shallow leagues)
4. Cam Akers - 35%
5. Gus Edwards - 33%
6. Carson Steele - 19%
7. Samaje Perine - 18% 
8. Keaton Mitchell - 8%
9. Dalvin Cook - 3%