ADP Battles: Kupp vs. Robinson vs. Lamb

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Published on June 29, 2023

Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because typically, fantasy players have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.

In the last two articles, we looked at the consensus top-six picks. This week, we'll look at players that often go in the back half of the first round. Cooper Kupp, Bijan Robinson and CeeDee Lamb are all excellent options. But not only will fantasy managers find themselves picking based on production potential, but also in terms of whether they want to go with a running back or wide receiver.

Cooper Kupp

After having arguably the best season a wide receiver has ever had in 2021, Kupp suffered an ankle injury and missed the last eight games of the season. Even with the Rams playing with a decimated offensive line and no credible running game, Kupp was still the highest-scoring wide receiver on a per-game basis in PPR leagues. Obviously, he wasn't anywhere near his 2021 pace, but that was never a realistic expectation.

Upside

Kupp had at least nine targets in all but one game last year as the focal point of the offense.
He posted at least 79 yards in all but one game.
Also, he had at least 122 yards in half of his games.
Kupp recorded a 79th-percentile yards-after-catch rate.
Matthew Stafford is expected back from his neck injury.
The offensive line should benefit from improved health and the addition of rookie Steve Avila.
Coach Sean McVay will almost certainly center the offense around Kupp.

Downside

Kupp will be 30 years old this season. Many players begin to show decline around this age.
Although he's usually healthy, he's missed eight games in two of the last five seasons.
If Stafford suffers another injury, the dropoff at quarterback could impact Kupp's production. Stafford has dealt with significant back and neck injuries recently.

The Bottom Line

Between Kupp's talent and Sean McVay's coaching, the wideout has become impossible for defenses to cover. Not only does he have elite separation and improvisation skills, but McVay will continue to strategically use Kupp all over the formation. WIth the Rams projected to have a terrible defense this year, they will likely need to throw the ball at a high percentage. Although it's very unlikely we'll see Kupp's 2021 level of performance, he could lead all players in PPR scoring and is worth a mid first-round pick.

Bijan Robinson

Despite having a strong running game last year, the Falcons used the eighth overall pick in the draft to select Robinson. The rookie boasts a three-down skillset, and coach Arthur Smith has a history of leaning heavily on his running backs. Fantasy managers are clearly in on Robinson, as he is commonly the third running back off the board in drafts.

Upside

The Falcons ran the ball more than any other team in the league last year (559 times) despite trailing often.
Even if Robinson doesn't get all the work, if he received 60 percent of the rushing attempts Atlanta had last year, he'd have over 300 carries.
Atlanta uses very creative personnel groupings to ensure a productive rushing attack. In this system, fifth-round rookie Tyler Allgeier rushed for 4.9 yards per carry last year.
The coaching staff has talked up Robinson's receiving ability, and they could use him creatively as a receiver.
At 5'11" and 215 pounds, his 40 time was in the 78th percentile and his explosiveness testing was in the 85th percentile. He appears to be an excellent athlete for his position.
He has fresh legs. Younger running backs often are able to avoid some of the wear and tear injuries that veteran runners often suffer.

Downside

After rushing for 8.2 yards per carry at Texas, Robinson followed that up by rushing for 5.8 and 6.1 yards per carry his last two years. It seems as if his athletic profile could have produced more in his last two years.
Although he's considered an elite receiver, he failed to reach seven yards per reception in either of his last two years.
We never really know what we have with a rookie until we see him play in the NFL.

The Bottom Line

There are plenty of cases in which rookie running backs have been dominant and worthy of first-round fantasy picks. Robinson has an optimal situation in terms of coaching philosophy and offensive line. With the heavy draft capital invested in him, he seems to be a lock for at least 350 touches. I am concerned that his college production didn't indicate he was a generational talent. When on the clock, I'm inclined to take a wide receiver in the latter half of the first round, as I feel the receiver options are safer. I have no issue recommending Robinson as a first-round pick, but I won't have many shares at his draft cost.

CeeDee Lamb

Lamb has progressed each year since joining the NFL in 2020. He arrived as a superstar after the Cowboys' bye week last season. Although he's commanded a high draft cost each year he's been in the league, he's now firmly entrenched as a first-round pick in fantasy drafts.

Upside

All six of his 100-yard games came in his last 11 games (including playoffs) last year.
Lamb scored touchdowns in five of his last 11 games.
He had at least six targets in every game while seeing at least 10 on nine occasions.
He had a high floor by posting at least 52 yards in 16 of 18 games.
Last year, he played in the slot 59 percent of the time, and he can win all over the formation.
Adding the speed of Brandin Cooks to the wide receiver room could help ease coverage on Lamb.

Downside

Dallas brought in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, who has been a proponent of the running game. Coach Mike McCarthy also talked about the need to run the ball. If Dallas goes run heavy, Lamb's targets could take a hit.
The Dallas defense has the potential to be elite. If they are, the Cowboys may not be in many shootouts, which could limit Lamb's upside.

The Bottom Line

Although I have slight concerns about the coaching, Lamb may still be getting better. Dak Prescott showed the willingness to get the ball to his top receiver despite heavy coverage, so Lamb should be the go-to receiver in most situations. I have no hesitation selecting him in the first round of drafts, but I prefer his value as a late-first round pick as opposed to a mid-first selection.

The Final Word

If I'm faced with drafting from this trio of players, Kupp is an easy choice for me. He's been the best PPR receiver in the league (on a per-game basis) the last two years, and I have no real concerns about his age or his recovery from injury. Kupp still can win leagues for his investors. My second choice from this group is Lamb. He proved that he was an elite performer in the second half of last season. I see him having a full season of dominance, even if Dallas limits its pass attempts. I have no issues with Robinson going at this point of the draft. I simply prefer to have a proven star over a player who I've never seen on an NFL field. However, if I prioritized selecting a running back in the first round, Robinson would be a strong pick.