ADP Analysis: Tracking Preseason ADP Shifts on Underdog, Draftkings and Drafters

ADP Analysis: Tracking Preseason ADP Shifts on Underdog, Draftkings and Drafters

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

Welcome back to ADP Analysis, where we'll look at data from three different sites to see how draft markets have changed since the start of training camp. The large table below compares ADPs from Sept. 3 to those from July 20, showing what's changed over the past five weeks on each of three platforms (Underdog, Drafters, DraftKings). 

The first set of columns shows averages from all three sites, with the first being from July 20, the second from Sept. 3 and the third showing the percentage difference between those two. I use the percentage rather than raw change because Cooper Kupp dropping 3-4 spots in the first round means a lot more than Isiah Pacheco dropping 3-4 spots in the eighth. 

Any blank spots for ADP were filled with the following values: 216 for Underdog, 230 for DraftKings, 233 for Drafters. Those are the lowest possible ADP values on the respective sites. 

Below the table, you'll find my analysis of some of the biggest ADP shifts this summer, looking at what motivated the changes and whether or not they were warranted. 

  Avg 7/20Avg 9/3AvgΔUD 7/20UD 9/3UDΔDK 7/20DK 9/3DKΔDR 7/20DR 9/3DRΔ
1Justin JeffersonWR1.11.11.8%1.11.10.0%1.21.15.0%1.11.10.0%
2Ja'Marr ChaseWR2.12.2-4.8%2.12.2-4.8%2.22.4-9.1%2.02.00.0%
3Christian McCaffreyRB3.73.211.7%3.83.215.8%3.23.12.8%4.03.415.0%
4Tyreek HillWR5.04.117.8%4.64.110.9%5.54.223.5%5.04.118.0%
5Travis KelceTE5.95.81.9%6.46.23.1%5.35.30.8%6.05.91.7%
6Austin EkelerRB7.46.78.9%7.66.99.2%7.26.311.9%7.36.95.5%
7Bijan RobinsonRB10.18.020.2%9.97.524.2%10.68.420.8%9.78.215.5%
8Stefon DiggsWR8.18.2-0.6%7.88.6-10.3%8.48.05.4%8.17.92.5%
9Cooper KuppWR4.18.9-114.4%4.28.2-95.2%4.610.8-134.3%3.67.6-111.1%
10A.J. BrownWR9.210.5-14.5%9.110.5-15.4%9.410.4-10.7%9.110.7-17.6%
11CeeDee LambWR11.112.0-8.6%10.912.1-11.0%11.411.8-3.2%10.912.2-11.9%
12Amon-Ra St. BrownWR12.812.43.1%13.613.32.2%12.512.7-1.8%12.211.19.0%
13Nick ChubbRB14.312.711.5%14.211.320.4%13.913.16.0%14.813.68.1%
14Garrett WilsonWR14.314.11.3%13.114.0-6.9%15.413.412.8%14.515.0-3.4%
15Tony PollardRB20.915.028.0%20.615.425.2%21.815.429.4%20.214.329.2%
16Davante AdamsWR13.615.5-14.2%14.116.2-14.9%13.716.6-21.0%13.013.8-6.2%
17Saquon BarkleyRB19.315.718.8%20.215.025.7%19.615.122.8%18.116.96.6%
18Jaylen WaddleWR16.820.0-18.8%16.319.2-17.8%18.022.2-23.2%16.118.5-14.9%
19Chris OlaveWR21.420.35.1%19.319.7-2.1%24.121.511.0%20.719.74.8%
20Derrick HenryRB21.721.32.1%22.420.48.9%19.820.5-3.3%23.023.00.0%
21Patrick MahomesQB20.721.5-3.9%21.221.3-0.5%18.819.2-2.2%22.224.1-8.6%
22Calvin RidleyWR33.022.232.7%32.023.327.2%34.022.832.9%33.120.637.8%
23Jalen HurtsQB22.522.31.1%25.523.77.1%17.418.9-8.3%24.724.31.6%
24DeVonta SmithWR22.023.4-6.2%21.522.7-5.6%25.125.8-2.7%19.521.7-11.3%
25Josh JacobsRB28.625.012.6%29.726.710.1%28.623.517.8%27.624.99.8%
26Tee HigginsWR24.026.2-9.5%23.526.3-11.9%25.827.7-7.5%22.624.7-9.3%
27Josh AllenQB26.827.0-0.6%27.927.32.2%23.024.9-8.1%29.528.72.7%
28Mark AndrewsTE29.928.54.8%29.527.76.1%29.830.9-3.7%30.426.811.8%
29DK MetcalfWR28.229.0-2.8%28.229.1-3.2%30.029.61.2%26.428.2-6.8%
30Jahmyr GibbsRB36.530.416.6%38.030.619.5%35.128.718.3%36.331.912.1%
31Lamar JacksonQB34.532.07.3%34.631.97.8%33.531.65.6%35.532.58.5%
32Keenan AllenWR32.332.00.9%35.735.02.0%32.331.52.6%28.929.6-2.4%
33Deebo SamuelWR35.033.44.6%34.634.21.2%36.634.46.1%33.831.66.5%
34Rhamondre StevensonRB28.234.9-23.5%26.834.4-28.4%29.035.1-21.2%28.935.1-21.5%
35Amari CooperWR35.234.90.7%33.333.7-1.2%38.036.63.6%34.234.4-0.6%
36DJ MooreWR49.338.022.9%47.837.820.9%51.838.126.5%48.238.121.0%
37Travis EtienneRB42.138.19.7%41.738.38.2%39.235.310.1%45.540.610.8%
38Joe MixonRB45.038.414.7%46.138.716.1%41.736.811.7%47.339.716.1%
39Mike WilliamsWR46.540.413.0%45.642.37.2%47.741.612.9%46.137.418.9%
40Christian WatsonWR44.140.67.9%40.939.82.7%49.042.114.0%42.339.95.7%
41Justin FieldsQB48.842.512.8%49.542.015.2%45.039.811.5%51.945.811.8%
42Najee HarrisRB40.043.6-9.0%38.243.9-14.9%41.944.4-5.9%39.942.5-6.5%
43DeAndre HopkinsWR41.943.6-4.1%43.847.3-8.0%42.443.2-1.9%39.640.4-2.0%
44Drake LondonWR47.346.41.9%43.344.4-2.5%54.651.26.3%44.043.60.9%
45Breece HallRB31.746.5-47.0%30.444.5-46.4%33.349.9-49.9%31.345.2-44.4%
46Joe BurrowQB42.648.1-12.9%45.348.4-6.8%36.646.6-27.4%46.049.4-7.4%
47Aaron JonesRB52.149.06.0%53.849.48.2%50.445.49.9%52.252.20.0%
48Justin HerbertQB53.450.65.4%54.651.16.4%51.349.04.5%54.451.65.1%
49Christian KirkWR45.850.7-10.6%49.956.3-12.8%45.648.6-6.6%41.947.1-12.4%
50Kenneth WalkerRB52.451.22.4%52.951.13.4%49.450.3-1.8%54.952.15.1%
51Diontae JohnsonWR56.451.39.2%56.152.07.3%61.554.311.8%51.747.58.1%
52T.J. HockensonTE49.251.4-4.6%52.053.2-2.3%46.351.7-11.7%49.349.4-0.2%
53Darren WallerTE78.651.534.5%80.354.532.1%74.745.638.9%80.854.332.8%
54Brandon AiyukWR55.352.45.1%51.249.33.7%58.956.44.3%55.751.67.4%
55Jonathan TaylorRB18.754.2-190.3%17.338.8-124.3%20.364.0-215.5%18.459.7-224.5%
56Dameon PierceRB70.656.719.7%70.158.616.4%69.954.921.5%71.856.621.2%
57George PickensWR77.758.325.0%76.461.519.5%80.552.435.0%76.361.119.9%
58Alexander MattisonRB57.959.4-2.5%60.058.91.8%54.858.3-6.3%59.060.9-3.2%
59Tyler LockettWR62.959.75.1%63.657.89.1%64.661.15.4%60.460.10.5%
60Chris GodwinWR58.160.1-3.5%58.961.1-3.7%61.361.9-1.0%54.157.4-6.1%
61Terry McLaurinWR46.761.2-30.9%44.055.5-26.1%52.067.8-30.4%44.260.2-36.2%
62Jahan DotsonWR76.062.617.7%73.363.213.8%84.362.625.8%70.361.911.9%
63Trevor LawrenceQB63.863.11.2%67.163.45.5%60.458.82.7%64.067.1-4.8%
64Gabe DavisWR74.263.714.1%74.968.58.5%74.162.815.2%73.559.918.5%
65J.K. DobbinsRB59.765.1-9.0%56.964.5-13.4%62.064.6-4.1%60.266.2-10.0%
66James CookRB93.865.130.6%95.169.526.9%93.260.634.9%93.265.230.0%
67Jerry JeudyWR39.166.5-70.1%39.456.3-42.9%40.573.2-80.8%37.470.0-87.2%
68Javonte WilliamsRB90.066.925.7%90.174.117.8%90.770.622.2%89.155.937.3%
69George KittleTE59.967.5-12.6%61.266.2-8.2%56.566.8-18.2%62.169.5-11.9%
70Mike EvansWR68.071.7-5.4%67.967.50.6%70.677.0-9.1%65.670.7-7.8%
71Jordan AddisonWR75.171.84.5%70.972.1-1.7%78.173.26.2%76.470.08.4%
72Zay FlowersWR94.073.122.3%90.674.817.4%100.670.929.5%90.973.619.0%
73Cam AkersRB63.173.9-17.2%66.173.5-11.2%58.769.3-18.1%64.579.0-22.5%
74Miles SandersRB66.776.0-13.9%65.471.7-9.6%66.483.1-25.2%68.473.2-7.0%
75Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR68.776.3-11.1%62.569.9-11.8%75.784.3-11.4%67.874.6-10.0%
76Dallas GoedertTE73.176.5-4.6%74.879.8-6.7%68.773.0-6.3%75.976.7-1.1%
77Michael PittmanWR69.077.6-12.5%67.378.0-15.9%72.878.7-8.1%66.876.1-13.9%
78Marquise BrownWR61.477.6-26.4%59.574.6-25.4%65.385.8-31.4%59.472.4-21.9%
79James ConnerRB80.279.11.4%84.282.12.5%75.172.73.1%81.482.5-1.4%
80D'Andre SwiftRB73.680.2-8.9%78.284.8-8.4%65.477.2-18.1%77.278.5-1.7%
81Kyle PittsTE70.480.3-14.1%69.078.9-14.3%72.480.8-11.6%69.881.3-16.5%
82Rachaad WhiteRB80.681.3-0.9%82.383.4-1.3%78.674.75.0%80.885.8-6.2%
83Courtland SuttonWR93.581.512.9%96.685.911.1%94.481.313.8%89.577.213.7%
84David MontgomeryRB82.881.71.4%78.477.80.8%87.484.83.0%82.682.40.2%
85Alvin KamaraRB92.582.510.8%94.482.412.7%83.779.74.8%99.585.414.2%
86Brandin CooksWR84.283.50.8%83.783.8-0.1%86.784.22.9%82.282.6-0.5%
87Quentin JohnstonWR82.489.5-8.6%79.585.6-7.7%88.795.9-8.1%79.086.9-10.0%
88Skyy MooreWR108.389.617.3%101.489.411.8%123.991.326.3%99.788.111.6%
89Isiah PachecoRB86.189.7-4.3%87.389.7-2.7%84.387.4-3.7%86.692.1-6.4%
90Deshaun WatsonQB83.889.8-7.1%83.989.0-6.1%83.790.2-7.7%83.890.1-7.5%
91Khalil HerbertRB120.292.323.2%119.092.422.4%118.590.523.6%123.094.123.5%
92Michael ThomasWR94.392.42.0%93.795.0-1.4%95.587.48.5%93.894.9-1.2%
93Elijah MooreWR90.793.3-2.9%87.190.4-3.8%97.097.8-0.8%88.091.8-4.3%
94Dalvin CookRB87.793.5-6.6%91.193.8-3.0%80.789.3-10.7%91.397.3-6.6%
95Tua TagovailoaQB91.795.0-3.6%92.394.4-2.3%86.092.6-7.6%96.898.1-1.3%
96Evan EngramTE93.595.7-2.4%97.697.9-0.3%86.691.7-5.9%96.397.6-1.3%
97Rashod BatemanWR92.798.3-6.0%88.196.8-9.9%103.6106.4-2.7%86.491.6-6.0%
98Antonio GibsonRB99.699.60.0%98.999.0-0.1%104.5101.43.0%95.598.5-3.1%
99Brian RobinsonRB110.8100.19.7%111.9101.29.6%104.598.35.9%115.9100.713.1%
100Treylon BurksWR77.9100.5-29.0%78.198.5-26.1%86.6107.0-23.5%69.096.0-39.1%
101Kadarius ToneyWR69.8102.3-46.6%71.8103.0-43.5%67.0104.1-55.4%70.699.8-41.4%
102Anthony RichardsonQB105.9102.82.9%104.299.94.1%107.0105.01.9%106.5103.62.7%
103Daniel JonesQB109.2103.75.0%114.2106.86.5%106.1103.82.2%107.2100.56.3%
104Dak PrescottQB99.7105.5-5.8%106.3107.1-0.8%92.299.5-8.0%100.7110.0-9.2%
105AJ DillonRB103.0106.3-3.2%102.2103.7-1.5%106.9108.8-1.8%99.8106.4-6.6%
106Pat FreiermuthTE110.3107.52.5%107.7105.91.7%110.3108.02.1%113.0108.73.8%
107Odell BeckhamWR105.6107.6-1.9%111.1110.70.4%99.5102.5-3.1%106.2109.6-3.2%
108Zach CharbonnetRB105.8108.5-2.6%101.8104.9-3.0%112.1112.8-0.6%103.4107.7-4.2%
109Romeo DoubsWR118.8108.68.6%120.6108.110.4%124.4121.02.8%111.496.613.3%
110David NjokuTE106.1109.3-3.1%106.9110.4-3.3%102.5105.5-2.9%108.9112.1-2.9%
111Kirk CousinsQB104.0110.9-6.7%112.8114.1-1.2%96.3101.3-5.2%102.8117.4-14.2%
112Jaylen WarrenRB136.3112.217.7%134.9111.217.6%140.5115.317.9%133.6110.017.7%
113JuJu Smith-SchusterWR123.7115.16.9%116.3115.30.9%128.1119.26.9%126.7110.912.5%
114Geno SmithQB112.1115.3-2.8%115.6114.51.0%108.7113.2-4.1%112.1118.2-5.4%
115Dalton KincaidTE134.7115.314.4%134.1116.912.8%126.0113.110.3%144.0116.019.4%
116Nico CollinsWR118.8115.62.7%118.1118.4-0.3%122.9115.06.4%115.5113.51.7%
117Samaje PerineRB103.8117.2-12.9%106.6117.0-9.8%103.3121.7-17.8%101.6112.9-11.1%
118Tyler BoydWR111.5120.6-8.1%103.5113.9-10.0%116.8126.3-8.1%114.3121.6-6.4%
119Tank BigsbyRB139.6120.813.5%138.9118.214.9%142.3123.912.9%137.6120.312.6%
120Zay JonesWR119.4121.2-1.6%121.5122.2-0.6%115.0124.9-8.6%121.6116.64.1%
121Jamaal WilliamsRB125.2121.53.0%127.6122.63.9%117.9113.83.5%130.2128.11.6%
122Jerick McKinnonRB121.7121.80.0%125.1126.3-1.0%114.2118.2-3.5%125.9120.84.1%
123Aaron RodgersQB123.4122.50.7%125.7122.12.9%113.2110.52.4%131.3135.0-2.8%
124Marvin MimsWR169.1122.827.4%158.8122.422.9%178.3125.429.7%170.2120.729.1%
125Raheem MostertRB167.4123.426.3%171.9128.825.1%156.5113.827.3%173.8127.626.6%
126Allen LazardWR109.6126.0-15.0%110.8125.7-13.4%108.7124.7-14.7%109.2127.5-16.8%
127Rashaad PennyRB115.8127.2-9.8%110.1120.4-9.4%122.8135.0-9.9%114.4126.1-10.2%
128Jakobi MeyersWR125.6127.6-1.6%125.4129.1-3.0%131.6133.8-1.6%119.7119.8-0.1%
129Jared GoffQB123.2128.9-4.6%131.2130.30.7%116.1122.9-5.8%122.2133.5-9.2%
130Dalton SchultzTE128.1130.8-2.1%138.4137.20.9%121.4131.6-8.4%124.4123.50.7%
131Sam LaPortaTE161.0132.617.6%165.4135.318.2%152.3127.016.6%165.4135.618.0%
132De'Von AchaneRB118.9134.1-12.8%118.1131.5-11.3%120.8135.4-12.1%117.9135.5-14.9%
133Tyler HigbeeTE140.6135.13.9%144.4136.45.5%138.5135.82.0%138.9133.04.2%
134Elijah MitchellRB127.3135.8-6.7%123.5130.9-6.0%131.0140.4-7.1%127.3136.2-7.0%
135Russell WilsonQB126.8138.4-9.1%134.2143.9-7.2%123.0139.7-13.6%123.3131.5-6.7%
136Rashee RiceWR144.2138.83.7%145.1141.22.7%151.0144.14.6%136.4131.23.8%
137Darnell MooneyWR134.5139.1-3.4%127.7133.8-4.8%144.8149.4-3.2%131.0134.0-2.3%
138Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR153.0139.58.8%151.1142.65.6%151.2137.69.0%156.6138.211.7%
139Kenneth GainwellRB162.2142.112.4%165.7141.514.6%167.8150.910.1%153.0133.912.5%
140Adam ThielenWR142.5143.2-0.5%142.9143.0-0.1%139.2129.96.7%145.5156.6-7.6%
141Jameson WilliamsWR106.9143.6-34.3%97.2129.9-33.6%113.4147.6-30.1%110.2153.3-39.1%
142Kenny PickettQB162.2144.011.2%169.4146.113.8%155.4134.413.5%161.7151.56.3%
143Tyler AllgeierRB146.2144.01.5%145.2140.93.0%146.1148.4-1.6%147.4142.73.2%
144K.J. OsbornWR139.5145.0-4.0%145.6152.2-4.5%135.4144.8-6.9%137.4138.1-0.5%
145Derek CarrQB143.5145.2-1.2%149.6148.40.8%135.1133.21.4%145.8153.9-5.6%
146Damien HarrisRB119.8145.3-21.4%117.1137.6-17.5%129.4153.2-18.4%112.8145.2-28.7%
147Jordan LoveQB155.2147.64.9%163.2150.97.5%149.5143.73.9%153.0148.23.1%
148Ezekiel ElliottRB177.9148.416.6%177.2145.717.8%177.8139.821.4%178.6159.710.6%
149Tim PatrickWR178.8226.016.9%168.2216.0-28.4%190.5230.0-20.7%177.7233.0100.0%
150Gerald EverettTE147.6149.3-1.2%149.7157.6-5.3%144.2146.4-1.6%148.9144.03.3%
151Van JeffersonWR145.9150.0-2.8%137.4141.8-3.2%160.6162.7-1.3%139.7145.4-4.1%
152Cole KmetTE150.4150.8-0.3%149.8149.80.0%143.5142.40.8%158.0160.3-1.5%
153Juwan JohnsonTE171.9150.812.2%173.8150.813.2%169.4147.512.9%172.4154.210.6%
154Michael GallupWR136.3151.3-10.9%135.1150.2-11.2%141.4159.4-12.7%132.5144.2-8.8%
155Roschon JohnsonRB158.3153.13.3%151.3149.11.5%166.2158.94.4%157.5151.24.0%
156Chigoziem OkonkwoTE134.5153.8-14.4%131.1154.4-17.8%136.7154.7-13.2%135.7152.4-12.3%
157Jonathan MingoWR149.0153.8-3.3%141.7151.0-6.6%156.4160.4-2.6%148.8150.1-0.9%
158Brock PurdyQB165.9154.17.1%171.2156.18.8%161.2145.89.5%165.3160.43.0%
159Tyjae SpearsRB173.1155.710.0%171.2155.89.0%175.2160.18.6%172.8151.312.4%
160Isaiah HodginsWR158.2156.31.2%174.7168.93.3%149.4152.7-2.2%150.6147.32.2%
161Jayden ReedWR172.3157.18.8%169.6159.46.0%182.8164.610.0%164.6147.310.5%
162Sam HowellQB186.8157.815.5%196.7161.917.7%180.3152.215.6%183.4159.413.1%
163Jake FergusonTE208.4159.323.5%207.9159.623.2%208.1155.625.2%209.1162.822.1%
164Luke MusgraveTE209.6163.022.2%206.6161.921.6%208.6162.322.2%213.6164.722.9%
165Rondale MooreWR125.6163.1-29.8%128.9169.4-31.4%126.0158.5-25.8%121.9161.3-32.3%
166Jalin HyattWR195.3163.416.3%197.6157.420.3%189.4163.713.6%198.9169.015.0%
167Donovan Peoples-JonesWR157.6168.0-6.6%160.5171.9-7.1%157.8165.9-5.1%154.4166.3-7.7%
168Alec PierceWR159.3168.1-5.5%154.1163.2-5.9%171.0177.6-3.8%152.8163.5-7.0%
169Greg DulcichTE134.0170.0-26.9%130.8170.2-30.1%131.5167.8-27.6%139.6171.9-23.1%
170Matthew StaffordQB151.5171.1-13.0%153.4172.4-12.4%145.3163.8-12.7%155.7177.1-13.7%
171Curtis SamuelWR170.4172.0-0.9%172.6175.3-1.6%168.5172.7-2.5%170.2168.11.2%
172Irv SmithTE157.1172.7-9.9%156.3174.0-11.3%154.8170.8-10.4%160.3173.4-8.2%
173DJ CharkWR156.2172.9-10.7%158.4172.5-8.9%163.0176.8-8.5%147.2169.3-15.0%
174Kendre MillerRB150.6173.6-15.3%143.5169.7-18.3%163.6179.3-9.6%144.6171.7-18.7%
175Devin SingletaryRB156.0174.2-11.6%155.1172.4-11.2%163.9176.1-7.4%149.1174.0-16.7%
176Dawson KnoxTE178.6181.8-1.8%179.5186.4-3.8%175.5178.1-1.5%180.8180.80.0%
177Bryce YoungQB173.4182.0-4.9%180.4185.3-2.7%163.1171.7-5.3%176.8188.9-6.8%
178Jeff WilsonRB182.2182.20.0%180.8169.96.0%180.5201.9-11.9%185.4174.75.8%
179Rashid ShaheedWR165.9182.3-9.9%160.8178.9-11.3%174.7189.9-8.7%162.2178.2-9.9%
180Chuba HubbardRB179.7183.0-1.9%185.2184.90.2%186.6189.5-1.6%167.2174.7-4.5%
181Nathaniel DellWR221.2184.016.8%213.6178.016.7%224.3185.317.4%225.7188.616.4%
182DeVante ParkerWR192.6186.23.3%188.8183.13.0%198.8191.83.5%190.1183.83.3%
183Hunter HenryTE219.7188.814.1%213.4186.912.4%223.4192.813.7%222.4186.716.1%
184Ty ChandlerRB195.0188.93.2%195.5195.30.1%201.6190.25.6%188.0181.13.7%
185Gus EdwardsRB189.4191.6-1.1%187.1190.3-1.7%190.7185.22.9%190.4199.2-4.6%
186Deuce VaughnRB219.2191.612.6%215.4185.314.0%217.7178.817.9%224.6210.66.2%
187Parris CampbellWR175.8192.0-9.2%178.1200.9-12.8%184.5207.2-12.3%164.9167.9-1.8%
188Deon JacksonRB225.9192.214.9%216.0216.00.0%228.7166.727.1%233.0193.916.8%
189Darius SlaytonWR200.4192.44.0%201.6195.53.0%206.7195.15.6%193.0186.53.4%
190Tyler ConklinTE194.0192.80.6%190.6190.9-0.2%192.9194.3-0.7%198.6193.32.7%
191Taysom HillTE164.5193.3-17.5%157.6183.2-16.2%159.2190.6-19.7%176.8206.0-16.5%
192Hunter RenfrowWR184.0193.4-5.1%187.3192.3-2.7%181.0196.1-8.3%183.6191.7-4.4%
193Jerome FordRB167.3193.5-15.7%164.7197.1-19.7%173.7199.3-14.7%163.5184.1-12.6%
194Richie JamesWR203.2194.04.5%211.8209.51.1%197.2188.24.6%200.7184.38.2%
195Kareem HuntRB211.5194.68.0%209.9185.911.4%212.4195.67.9%212.3202.44.7%
196Jimmy GaroppoloQB206.8195.85.3%211.7203.63.8%198.8180.49.3%209.8203.43.1%
197Kyler MurrayQB156.9196.4-25.2%152.1196.4-29.1%146.2190.7-30.5%172.5202.1-17.2%
198D'Onta ForemanRB162.8198.1-21.6%165.6200.3-21.0%152.4187.5-23.0%170.5206.4-21.1%
199Michael WilsonWR224.4198.511.5%214.5195.68.8%230.0215.66.3%228.8184.419.4%
200Ryan TannehillQB203.0198.62.2%203.4200.51.4%198.8197.20.8%206.7198.14.2%
201Zamir WhiteRB206.4198.73.7%201.5192.94.3%211.1206.72.1%206.7196.64.9%
202Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB200.6199.40.6%202.8199.51.6%199.9200.7-0.4%199.1198.10.5%
203Joshua PalmerWR210.1200.84.4%212.7200.65.7%205.9202.81.5%211.8199.16.0%
204Justyn RossWR225.4201.010.8%215.4190.711.5%227.6204.610.1%233.1207.610.9%
205Hayden HurstTE197.4201.1-1.9%197.4202.9-2.8%194.9202.8-4.0%200.0197.71.2%
206Michael MayerTE206.4201.52.3%210.7204.52.9%188.3191.5-1.7%220.1208.65.2%
207C.J. StroudQB185.9201.6-8.5%193.0207.5-7.5%173.9188.2-8.2%190.8209.2-9.6%
208Kyren WilliamsRB224.7202.99.7%215.9207.83.8%228.3210.87.6%230.0190.017.4%
209Mecole HardmanWR208.5203.72.3%207.3205.40.9%211.1209.60.7%207.2196.25.3%
210Zack MossRB225.2205.09.0%215.9204.75.2%226.7208.18.2%233.0202.113.3%
211Desmond RidderQB202.0205.8-1.8%206.3205.10.6%195.4200.5-2.6%204.4211.7-3.6%
212Mac JonesQB197.8206.9-4.6%206.3209.7-1.6%189.4196.9-4.0%197.6214.0-8.3%
213Isaiah LikelyTE206.7208.2-0.7%202.7208.1-2.7%202.9210.1-3.6%214.4206.33.8%
214Robert WoodsWR205.1208.3-1.6%204.1212.7-4.2%213.3212.10.6%198.0200.2-1.1%
215Josh DownsWR218.2210.03.8%212.6209.41.5%222.8217.72.3%219.3202.97.5%
216Joshua KelleyRB220.1210.54.4%214.6211.01.7%226.1212.85.9%219.6207.75.4%
217Evan HullRB226.3210.96.8%216.0203.85.6%230.0213.97.0%233.0214.97.8%
218Baker MayfieldQB215.8212.41.6%214.7211.31.6%212.0205.82.9%220.8220.20.3%
219John MetchieWR187.9213.1-13.4%183.0212.9-16.3%193.0211.2-9.4%187.7215.1-14.6%
220Cade OttonTE225.7213.15.6%215.3209.42.7%230.0209.78.8%231.8220.15.0%
221Mack HollinsWR225.0216.63.7%215.4212.91.2%230.0220.44.2%229.6216.55.7%
222Chase ClaypoolWR215.1217.2-1.0%210.6209.30.6%218.7221.1-1.1%216.0221.3-2.5%
223Zach ErtzTE220.2217.51.2%215.0213.40.7%219.9220.00.0%225.6219.02.9%
224Trey McBrideTE206.5218.4-5.7%199.3214.2-7.5%215.5222.7-3.4%204.8218.2-6.5%
225Noah FantTE216.0218.5-1.1%212.4212.8-0.2%213.8219.4-2.6%221.9223.3-0.6%
226Allen RobinsonWR219.0219.00.0%213.9213.50.2%225.4225.40.0%217.7218.2-0.2%
227Marvin JonesWR217.2219.7-1.2%211.7215.3-1.7%219.3216.41.3%220.6227.5-3.1%
228Wan'Dale RobinsonWR209.6219.9-4.9%201.2211.5-5.1%216.5225.4-4.1%211.1222.8-5.5%
229Puka NacuaWR221.3219.90.6%212.0210.50.7%230.0224.32.5%221.8225.0-1.4%
230Deonte HartyWR225.4220.32.3%215.7213.31.1%230.0227.71.0%230.6220.04.6%
231Khalil ShakirWR187.9220.4-17.3%183.5215.1-17.2%199.0223.5-12.3%181.3222.7-22.8%
232Terrace MarshallWR209.9220.8-5.2%206.9215.7-4.3%221.4229.6-3.7%201.5217.1-7.7%
233Mike GesickiTE184.4221.1-19.9%186.5214.2-14.9%179.8221.0-22.9%186.8228.1-22.1%
234Leonard FournetteRB194.3221.1-13.8%197.1214.7-8.9%203.4225.4-10.8%182.4223.3-22.4%
235Cordarrelle PattersonRB199.2221.1-11.0%202.3213.9-5.7%189.5220.8-16.5%205.9228.7-11.1%
236Chase BrownRB196.5221.3-12.6%195.5215.1-10.0%195.5223.2-14.2%198.4225.6-13.7%
237Keaontay IngramRB224.2221.41.2%215.5214.20.6%230.0227.90.9%227.2222.22.2%
238Chris EvansRB225.3221.51.7%216.0215.10.4%230.0226.41.6%230.0222.93.1%
239Myles GaskinRB226.3221.82.0%216.0215.40.3%230.0225.61.9%233.0224.43.7%
240Cole TurnerTE226.3221.92.0%216.0214.50.7%230.0225.32.1%233.0225.93.0%
241Randall CobbWR226.3222.01.9%216.0214.90.5%230.0222.23.4%233.0228.81.8%
242Calvin AustinWR226.3222.21.8%216.0214.00.9%230.0225.52.0%233.0227.12.5%
243Rico DowdleWR226.3222.41.7%216.0214.40.7%230.0226.01.7%233.0226.82.7%
244Josh ReynoldsWR224.9222.90.9%215.3214.70.3%230.0230.00.0%229.3224.12.3%
245Kendrick BourneWR226.3223.11.4%216.0214.40.7%230.0227.01.3%233.0228.02.1%
246Cedric TillmanWR225.0223.30.8%215.1215.10.0%230.0230.00.0%230.0224.72.3%
247Latavius MurrayRB223.0223.6-0.3%215.8215.60.1%225.5225.8-0.1%227.7229.4-0.7%
248Tyquan ThorntonWR180.1223.8-24.3%175.1215.8-23.2%190.0225.9-18.9%175.1229.7-31.2%
249Tutu AtwellWR224.6223.80.3%215.2214.60.3%230.0230.00.0%228.6226.90.7%
250Demario DouglasWR226.3223.91.1%216.0215.80.1%230.0226.21.7%233.0229.61.5%

        

ADP Risers

Kings of Camp Hype

TE Darren Waller (78.6 > 51.5 — 34.5%)

WR Calvin Ridley (33.0 > 22.2 — 32.7%)

RB James Cook (93.8 > 65.1 — 30.6%)

WR George Pickens (77.7 > 58.3 — 25.0%)

WR DJ Moore (49.3 > 38.0 — 22.9%)

RB Jaylen Warren (136.3 > 112.2 — 17.7%)

WR Tank Dell (221.2 > 184.0 — 16.8%)

WR Jalin Hyatt (195.3 > 163.4 — 16.3%)

These guys stood out in training camp and/or the preseason... or at least were said to have stood out by beat reporters. Pickens, Waller and Ridley have gone from being three of my favorite values to three guys I don't draft much. Moore, Dell, Pickens and Warren at least backed it up with big preseason performances, but man are we paying a premium for it in every case.

    

Running With the Starters

TE Jake Ferguson (208.4 > 159.3 — 23.5%)

RB Khalil Herbert (120.2 > 92.3 — 23.2%)

WR Zay Flowers (94.0 > 73.1 — 22.3%)

TE Luke Musgrave (209.6 > 163.0 — 22.2%)

TE Sam LaPorta (161.0 > 132.6 — 17.6%)

WR Skyy Moore (108.3 > 89.6 — 17.3%)

QB Sam Howell (186.8 > 157.8 — 15.5%)

All of these guys probably should've moved up based on camp/preseason reports, but in every case the extent of the movement was too much. It's especially surprising with Ferguson, as he was always the favorite for the starting job and probably won't go beyond 500 or 600 yards even if he plays a lot of snaps. 

He's more promising as a real-life player than a fantasy asset, and there's still a chance he gets stuck in a committee losing snaps to Luke Schoonmaker and/or Peyton Hendershot. I'm fine with Ferguson as an endgame pick for a Cowboys stack, but I can't imagine taking him in the same range as, say, Cole Kmet, who offers both a higher floor and higher ceiling.

  

Teammate Injury/News

WR Marvin Mims (169.1 >122.8 — 27.4%)

RB Raheem Mostert (167.4 > 123.4 — 26.3%)

WR Jahan Dotson (76.0 > 62.6 — 17.7%)

RB Deon Jackson (225.9 > 192.2 — 14.9%)

Go figure that the oft-injured Mostert is the only Miami back who has been able to stay healthy this season. De'Von Achane (shoulder) and Salvon Ahmed (neck) may both be ready for Week 1, but Jeff Wilson (midsection) is on IR and out for at least the first four games. Mostert's rise throughout summer has been slow and steady, followed by a jolt these past few days with Wilson going to IR and Achane still limited in practice.

Mims is one of the more obvious fantasy winners of the summer, as Tim Patrick was lost to a season-ending injury and now Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) looks questionable-to-doubtful for Week 1. It looks like Mims will start his career as Denver's No. 2 receiver, and with a prospect profile that suggests he's up to the task.

     

Staying Healthy / Successful Rehab

RB Tony Pollard (20.9 > 15.0 — 28.0%)

RB Javonte Williams (90.0 > 66.9 — 25.7%)

RB Dameon Pierce (70.6 > 56.7 — 19.7%) 

These guys are all on or ahead of schedule coming back from season-ending injuries. In Pollard's case, it helps that the Cowboys (still) haven't added another back. In Pierce's case, it helps that he dominated first-team snaps during the preseason, including passing situations. In Williams' case, it's impressive he even made it back for a preseason game.

     

Other Stuff

RB Bijan Robinson (10.1 > 8.0 — 20.2%)

RB Saquon Barkley (19.3 > 15.7 — 18.8%)

WR Tyreek Hill (5.0 > 4.1 — 17.8%)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs (36.5 > 30.4 — 16.6%)

RB Ezekiel Elliott (177.9 > 148.4 — 16.6%)

Some of what we're seeing here is a result of other players dropping, e.g., Cooper Kupp (hamstring) and Jonathan Taylor (ankle/contract). Then there's general excitement over rookies (Robinson, Gibbs) and the settling of previously uncertain contract situations (Barkley, Zeke).

    

ADP Fallers

Injury/Contract

RB Jonathan Taylor (18.7 > 54.2)

WR Cooper Kupp (4.1 > 8.9)

WR Jerry Jeudy (39.1 > 66.5)

WR Kadarius Toney (69.8 > 102.3)

WR Terry McLaurin (46.7 > 61.2)

WR Jameson Williams (106.9 > 143.6)

WR Treylon Burks (77.9 > 100.5)

QB Kyler Murray (156.9 > 196.4)

WR Jaylen Waddle (16.8 > 20.0)

RB Jerome Ford (167.3 > 193.5)

RB Kendre Miller (150.6 > 173.6)

WR Allen Lazard (109.6 >126.0)

It's worth noting that Burks, Waddle, Ford and Lazard all appear better than 50/50 to play Week 1, while Williams is unlikely to still be bothered by his hamstring by the time he's eligible to return from suspension Week 7. There's value in drafting some of these guys, and there might even be value with the likes of Taylor/Kupp/Jeudy/McLaurin given that early season production isn't as important as what happens later in the year for best ball. That's true even in contests that use total points rather than a playoff system, as our rosters become thinned out by injuries and bye weeks after September. It's better to have players missing games now than in November or December.

   

Teammate Situation

RB Breece Hall (31.7 > 46.5)

WR Rondale Moore (125.6 > 163.1)

WR Marquise Brown (61.4 > 77.6)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (28.2 > 34.9)

Pessimism on Kyler Murray has spread to the rest of the Arizona offense, sinking Brown and Moore to their cheapest prices of the year even with DeAndre Hopkins gone. I especially like the value with Moore here, as his touches aren't the kind that require good QB play. The Cardinals will be brutal, but there's target-share upside for each of Moore, Brown and TE Trey McBride.

The other guys here, Hall and Stevenson, took value hits when their teams signed veteran backups (Cook / Zeke) during training camp. There's also the matter of Hall being eased into practice and possibly the season, though I'd think that has been accounted for in his price all offseason. I like him best for teams/drafts where I'm focused on the playoffs, e.g. a big best-ball tournament on Underdog or a loaded dynasty team that I know will cruise through the regular season.

    

Negative Camp Reports

TE Greg Dulcich (134.0 > 170.0)

RB D'Onta Foreman (162.8 > 198.1)

RB Damien Harris (119.8 > 145.3)

TE Mike Gesicki (184.4 > 221.1)

WR Khalil Shakir (187.9 > 220.4)

Reports out of Buffalo hint at Shakir and Harris playing less than many thought a couple months ago while Kincaid and Cook play more. There are even whispers Latavius Murray could take over the No. 2 role and push Harris down to No. 3, and perhaps also concern about Deonte Harris doing the same to Shakir with the third/fourth spots at wide receiver.

It's a similar deal for the other guys listed here, with teammates at their positions getting more favorable press this summer (Dulcich - Adam Trautman / Foreman - Khalil Herbert / Gesicki - Hunter Henry). 

   

Not Sure

TE Taysom Hill (164.5 > 193.3)

RB Cam Akers (63.1 > 73.9)

Backup RB Kyren Williams has some hype coming out of Los Angeles, but more so as a third-down guy or No. 2 option than a real threat to Akers in the lead role. While I've generally been Anti-Akers for a few years now, the seventh round is where he starts to make sense.

With Hill... maybe it's a Jimmy Graham thing? That wouldn't make sense since Graham isn't going to play much or take snaps that might otherwise go to Hill, but it is fair to wonder about the Saints offense generally being more crowded than in past seasons. And really, most of Hill's value comes from the slim shot he ends up making starts at quarterback... which is less likely than ever on a roster with a healthy Derek Carr and Jameis Winston. I'll continue not drafting Hill at all.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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