ADP Analysis: Risers and Fallers after Preseason Week 3 and Cutdown Day

We're looking at ADPs on Underdog, comparing data from last Thursday afternoon to updated numbers Tuesday morning, following the completion of the final slate of exhibitions. Some of the guys below are the same ones mentioned as fantasy winners/losers in my Week 3 Preseason Recap, which also includes notes on every team.

The biggest thing I noticed below, apart from Dameon Pierce's continued ascent, is that drafters on Underdog are getting much smarter about which backup running backs they draft in the late rounds. Boring, old guys like Mark Ingram, Jeff Wilson and Mike Davis all were too cheap throughout August, with drafters in many cases preferring the theoretical upside of young guys who currently sit third or fourth on a depth chart. That's not always the wrong call, of course. You might say Ingram/Wilson/Davis is the better bet to provide RB2-type stats (but no more), while a rookie third-stringer offers some theoretical upside beyond that, though his path to get there is twisted and challenging.

We also see some buzzy preseason players who continued rising despite nothing significant happening since last week and our last ADP article. I wonder if some drafters are scared of missing out and start to overdraft guys at the last second due to regret about not picking them earlier at cheaper prices... the ol' anti-arbitrage approach.

ADP Risers ⬆️

RB Dameon Pierce

RB30 (ADP 92.6) > RB24 (72.7)

Pierce unsurprisingly is the big gainer this week, after shining as the lead back with Houston's first-team offense in the preseason finale. The Texans saw enough to cut Marlon Mack, who seemingly will be relegated to the practice squad as mere injury insurance for the rookie. The other RBs on Houston's roster as of Thursday evening were Rex Burkhead, Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale... seemingly all threats to steal passing-down snaps more so than carries. 

At this point, competition for carries is the least of Pierce's concerns. First, he needs to prove he's as good as he looked in the preseason — obviously far from a given. Then he needs to get some help, at least a little, from the less-than-supremely-talented players surrounding him. Fortunately, Pierce is reasonably priced around the 6/7 turn, with the aforementioned factors preventing the helium we've seen with other hyped rookie backs in past years. At this price, he's still a solid pick.

RB Michael Carter

 RB48 (144.0) > RB45 (135.5)

I'm annoyed because I've been buying Carter all along and don't really think his preseason timeshare with Breece Hall has been anything to care about. We knew Hall wasn't going to immediately discard Carter, though he might eventually, in which case Carter would still be a high-end handcuff. Hall and Carter splitting first-team work in the preseason is what should've been expected all along, right? The appeal with Carter is mentioned above, and the appeal to Hall is that he might be the type of freak player whose talent outweighs concerns about team context and shared workloads. Nothing has changed here; move along and draft whoever you liked before.

WR Michael Gallup

WR61 (133.0) > WR57 (125.1)

Gallup is finally being drafted ahead of Jalen Tolbert, as he should be, with reports on his rehab from a late-season ACL tear consistently positive. He'll still be at increased risk of suffering injuries this season, but this is probably still a 60-pick discount from where Gallup would be ranked if he'd finished last year healthy and come back to an offense with no Amari Cooper. I do find it odd that Tolbert has also sunk quite a bit (see below), as it was a mistake to ever pin much of his value on Gallup missing the first part of the season. We're likely talking a game or two, not a month or two. In the meantime, it could be CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown working the perimeter while Tolbert takes most of the slot snaps — a big downgrade from last year if you're Dak Prescott.

Others

QB Baker Mayfield - QB25 (190.3) > QB24 (181.3)

QB Geno Smith - QB34 (215.9) > QB34 (215.5) - (still mostly goes undrafted on UD)

RB Chase Edmonds - RB26 (82.4) > RB25 (77.2)

RB Antonio Gibson - RB33 (96.9) > RB30 (91.9)

RB Darrell Henderson - RB40 (122.0) > RB39 (117.1)

RB Jerick McKinnon - RB59 (199.3) > RB57 (182.3)

RB J.D. McKissic - RB56 (176.3) > RB55 (167.7)

RB Eno Benjamin - RB62 (203.0) > RB59 (192.2)

RB Mark Ingram - RB63 (205.8) > RB58 (191.3)

RB Jeff Wilson - RB70 (212.7) > RB61 (198.3)

RB Mike Davis - RB74 (213.4) > RB60 (196.2)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR28 (56.2) > WR26 (52.7)

WR Christian Kirk - WR40 (79.0) > WR37 (75.8)

WR George Pickens - WR50 (108.6) > WR47 (100.7) 

WR Jahan Dotson - WR62 (134.5) > WR58 (127.2)

WR Isaiah McKenzie - WR64 (139.1) > WR60 (130.3)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson - WR71 (158.4) > WR69 (152.8)

WR David Bell - WR88 (206.6) > WR84 (199.1)

TE Pat Freiermuth - TE13 (137.3) > TE12 (130.3)

TE David Njoku - TE17 (160.3) > TE16 (152.8)

TE Isaiah Likely - TE27 (197.9) > TE24 (186.9)

ADP Fallers ⬇️

RB J.K. Dobbins

RB20 (55.3) > RB21 (61.2)

Post-cutdown-day signing Kenyan Drake is probably more of a threat for passing-down work than carries, if that, but the recent addition nonetheless adds to anxiety that Dobbins won't be ready for Week 1. He was activated from the preseason PUP list more than three weeks ago, and there's still been no report of clearance for contact. That doesn't mean he won't suit up for the opener, but it does suggest he's on a limited clock and still has progress to make. The price here is reasonable, including the recent drop, though I have Dobbins ranked about half round ahead of ADP.

RB Isaiah Spiller

RB49 (146.7) > RB54 (165.6)

I've never been a believer in any of the Chargers RBs having fantasy value unless Austin Ekeler misses time. Of course, that's something that could very well happen, and Spiller's recent bad news (the Sony Michel signing) is partially offset by good news (the rookie returned to practice Tuesday, sooner than expected after an ankle sprain). Spiller is still the backup with fantasy upside, albeit down the road rather than Week 1, making him a reasonable bench stash at this price. Just don't bother drafting him if you plan to cut him after a slow start.

TE Mike Gesicki

TE15 (154.0) > TE19 (166.0)

Gesicki's freefall continues, now putting him in the same ADP range as Gerald Everett, Robert Tonyan, Tyler Higbee and Hayden Hurst. All are in promising offenses, but with modest target projections, and Gesicki has the best track record of fantasy production. The problem is his questionable fit in coach Mike McDaniels' offense, an ongoing storyline that could've been avoided if the Dolphins hadn't franchise-tagged Gesicki. He's cheap enough now to draft again, even though the preseason concerns are valid, as there's still potential for numbers similar to his 2020 stat line (53/703/6 on 85 targets) in the more receiving-friendly half of a timeshare with Durham Smythe. Gesicki played only 62 percent of snaps in his active games in 2020, upping to 72 percent last year with a more volume-based receiving line (73/780/2 on 112 targets).

Others

RB Josh Jacobs - RB24 (75.7) > RB26 (79.4)

RB Miles Sanders (hamstring) - RB29 (91.7) > RB33 (97.4)

RB Brian Robinson (leg) - RB41 (126.4) > RB51 (158.4)

RB Marlon Mack - RB57 (192.0) > RB64 (209.6)

RB Darrel Williams - RB58 (193.6) > RB62 (207.8)

RB Gus Edwards (knee) - RB60 (201.2) > RB66 (210.9)

RB Joshua Kelley - RB64 (206.8) > RB68 (211.3)

WR Amari Cooper - WR37 (75.9) > WR40 (79.6)

WR Jalen Tolbert - WR55 (120.4) > WR61 (133.3)

WR Russell Gage (hamstring) - WR56 (123.3) > WR59 (129.1)

WR DeVante Parker - WR59 (131.3) > WR62 (136.8)

WR Mecole Hardman - WR60 (131.6) > WR63 (137.3)

WR Kenny Golladay - WR68 (151.1) > WR74 (167.7)

WR Christian Watson - WR69 (153.8) > WR71 (160.0)

WR Parris Campbell - WR79 (180.7) > WR81 (185.9)

WR Jamison Crowder - WR83 (198.2) > WR87 (105.9) 

TE Darren Waller (hamstring) - TE4 (52.1) > TE5 (55.3)

TE Albert Okwuegbunam (lower body) - TE12 (136.4) > TE14 (144.2)

TE Noah Fant - TE21 (177.1) > TE23 (186.8)