ADP Analysis: How to Exploit Default Ranks on ESPN, Yahoo and NFL.com

ADP Analysis: How to Exploit Default Ranks on ESPN, Yahoo and NFL.com

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

Default ranks on fantasy platforms can impact the way we set pre-ranks and ultimately influence how many people draft. And unlike best-ball sites that automatically update their ranks based on ADPs from actual drafts, the largest season-long-fantasy providers (ESPN, Yahoo, NFL, CBS, etc.) all use some form of default, site/projection-generated rankings.

Below we'll look at these rankings from three sites — ESPN, Yahoo and NFL.com — to identify players listed much later (or earlier) than they should be. This is partially based on my opinion, but I'll also base it on comparisons to ADP from best ball sites and Rotowire's recent Top-150 PPR Roundtable.

Looking at the table right below, the first column after player position (RW/BB) combines an average of our Top 150 ranks and ADPs from best ball sites. After that, you'll see default ranks from each of three fantasy platforms — ESPN, Yahoo, NFL — along with columns showing how much those rankings differ from the RW/BB average. If you scroll past the table, I'll discuss some of the most under-ranked and over-ranked players from each site.

NamePosRW/BB AVGESPNESPNΔYahooYahooΔNFLNFLΔ
1Justin JeffersonWR1.11-5.4%1-5.4%1-5.4%
2Ja'Marr ChaseWR2.32-12.4%2-12.4%2-12.4%
3Christian McCaffreyRB3.68121.4%3-17.0%793.8%
4Tyreek HillWR4.1772.4%523.2%4-1.5%
5Travis KelceTE5.55-8.3%728.3%5-8.3%
6Cooper KuppWR7.06-14.8%6-14.8%3-57.4%
7Austin EkelerRB7.84-48.5%4-48.5%6-22.7%
8Stefon DiggsWR8.21358.9%8-2.2%8-2.2%
9A.J. BrownWR10.01769.2%1439.4%9-10.4%
10Nick ChubbRB11.19-18.6%10-9.6%1426.6%
11Bijan RobinsonRB11.310-11.8%9-20.6%11-3.0%
12CeeDee LambWR11.71528.7%11-5.6%10-14.2%
13Amon-Ra St. BrownWR13.51833.8%1511.5%1726.4%
14Saquon BarkleyRB14.112-14.9%13-7.8%13-7.8%
15Garrett WilsonWR14.11613.3%1720.3%1827.4%
16Davante AdamsWR15.411-28.7%163.6%163.6%
17Derrick HenryRB18.63-83.8%18-3.1%15-19.2%
18Tony PollardRB19.114-26.7%12-37.2%12-37.2%
19Jaylen WaddleWR19.52212.9%202.7%19-2.5%
20Chris OlaveWR20.12524.2%2314.2%2944.0%
21Patrick MahomesQB22.32616.7%3034.6%247.7%
22Jalen HurtsQB22.92822.2%244.8%230.4%
23DeVonta SmithWR23.93546.2%22-8.1%3233.7%
24Tee HigginsWR24.324-1.3%266.9%3127.5%
25Calvin RidleyWR25.03644.0%3436.0%250.0%
26Josh AllenQB25.9274.4%3223.7%22-14.9%
27Jonathan TaylorRB26.820-25.5%21-21.8%20-25.5%
28Josh JacobsRB30.319-37.3%19-37.3%21-30.7%
29DK MetcalfWR31.021-32.2%310.2%3719.5%
30Mark AndrewsTE31.63820.1%3717.0%26-17.8%
31Jahmyr GibbsRB32.032-0.1%359.3%28-12.6%
32Rhamondre StevensonRB33.34844.0%33-1.0%27-19.0%
33Amari CooperWR33.64122.2%3916.2%367.3%
34Lamar JacksonQB34.93911.7%4014.5%350.2%
35Travis EtienneRB35.130-14.6%25-28.8%33-6.0%
36Keenan AllenWR36.34318.6%4524.1%4318.6%
37Deebo SamuelWR36.323-36.7%4112.9%4832.2%
38Najee HarrisRB37.031-16.3%29-21.7%34-8.2%
39DJ MooreWR41.2422.0%5533.6%5021.4%
40Jerry JeudyWR41.8457.8%8296.4%5224.5%
41Mike WilliamsWR42.8442.7%6961.1%455.0%
42Justin FieldsQB43.95627.5%5627.5%38-13.5%
43Joe MixonRB44.329-34.5%27-39.0%5115.2%
44Aaron JonesRB44.834-24.1%28-37.5%40-10.7%
45Breece HallRB45.3473.7%42-7.3%30-33.8%
46Drake LondonWR47.76842.7%504.9%5311.2%
47Joe BurrowQB49.140-18.5%6022.3%44-10.3%
48DeAndre HopkinsWR49.85918.4%5714.3%5510.3%
49Terry McLaurinWR50.36019.2%511.3%42-16.6%
50Justin HerbertQB51.0557.9%7547.1%39-23.5%
51Christian WatsonWR52.137-29.0%6117.0%47-9.8%
52Kenneth WalkerRB53.346-13.6%49-8.0%541.4%
53Chris GodwinWR53.96520.5%6316.8%7742.7%
54Dameon PierceRB55.333-40.3%36-34.9%584.9%
55T.J. HockensonTE55.649-11.9%47-15.5%49-11.9%
56Brandon AiyukWR56.46718.7%54-4.3%6922.2%
57Darren WallerTE58.06410.3%7834.5%56-3.5%
58Christian KirkWR58.88036.1%7731.0%602.1%
59J.K. DobbinsRB59.17730.3%38-35.7%648.3%
60Tyler LockettWR61.87927.9%43-30.4%59-4.5%
61Mike EvansWR62.258-6.7%7317.4%7825.4%
62George KittleTE62.67011.9%58-7.3%62-0.9%
63Alexander MattisonRB64.052-18.8%46-28.2%63-1.6%
64Trevor LawrenceQB65.47413.1%707.0%46-29.7%
65Diontae JohnsonWR66.857-14.7%53-20.7%704.7%
66Cam AkersRB68.854-21.5%48-30.2%57-17.1%
67Miles SandersRB69.250-27.7%44-36.4%41-40.7%
68Javonte WilliamsRB70.0757.1%67-4.3%734.3%
69James ConnerRB70.361-13.2%62-11.8%68-3.2%
70Marquise BrownWR70.566-6.4%710.7%767.8%
71James CookRB70.863-11.0%52-26.5%710.3%
72Jahan DotsonWR72.38517.6%72-0.4%8720.4%
73Jordan AddisonWR72.89631.9%9023.6%8212.7%
74George PickensWR73.58211.5%8110.2%9732.0%
75Michael PittmanWR74.08413.6%64-13.5%819.5%
76Dallas GoedertTE74.272-2.9%68-8.3%751.1%
77Kyle PittsTE74.871-5.1%65-13.1%61-18.5%
78Gabe DavisWR75.59931.1%8411.3%8613.9%
79Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR79.1834.9%9418.8%834.9%
80D'Andre SwiftRB79.48912.1%857.1%74-6.8%
81Brandin CooksWR80.7810.4%10226.4%79-2.1%
82Alvin KamaraRB81.253-34.7%80-1.4%80-1.4%
83Deshaun WatsonQB82.073-10.9%9515.9%853.7%
84Rachaad WhiteRB83.451-38.9%74-11.3%67-19.7%
85David MontgomeryRB84.476-10.0%59-30.1%9411.3%
86Isiah PachecoRB85.862-27.7%79-7.9%66-23.0%
87Dalvin CookRB90.278-13.5%66-26.8%65-27.9%
88Evan EngramTE91.5931.6%91-0.6%953.8%
89Quentin JohnstonWR92.510614.6%12636.2%84-9.2%
90Treylon BurksWR93.4973.8%11927.4%10411.3%
91Michael ThomasWR93.71017.8%11623.9%10310.0%
92Elijah MooreWR94.012027.7%973.2% -100.0%
93Zay FlowersWR94.3983.9%12128.3%1028.2%
94Courtland SuttonWR96.669-28.5%981.5%1058.7%
95Rashod BatemanWR97.816164.7%991.3%12224.8%
96Tua TagovailoaQB98.41056.7%1056.7%72-26.9%
97Antonio GibsonRB99.911313.1%88-11.9%1077.1%
98Zach CharbonnetRB100.212726.8%100-0.2%93-7.2%
99Dak PrescottQB100.41021.6%92-8.4%92-8.4%
100AJ DillonRB101.188-12.9%86-14.9%91-9.9%
101David NjokuTE101.294-7.1%1075.7%96-5.1%
102Skyy MooreWR101.786-15.4%1086.2%1097.2%
103Anthony RichardsonQB102.012320.6%101-1.0%88-13.7%
104Khalil HerbertRB102.287-14.9%76-25.6%89-12.9%
105Kirk CousinsQB105.7103-2.6%1158.8%12114.5%
106Pat FreiermuthTE108.192-14.9%83-23.2%1123.6%
107Kadarius ToneyWR108.413524.5%13625.4%100-7.8%
108Samaje PerineRB108.71123.0%96-11.7%1101.2%
109JuJu Smith-SchusterWR109.9108-1.7%1111.0%1209.2%
110Rashaad PennyRB110.1110-0.1%1198.1%17558.9%
111Romeo DoubsWR111.615942.4%14529.9%17556.8%
112Daniel JonesQB112.4104-7.5%87-22.6%90-19.9%
113Brian RobinsonRB112.890-20.2%89-21.1%13015.2%
114Odell BeckhamWR114.0100-12.3%12913.1%1259.6%
115Jamaal WilliamsRB116.491-21.8%93-20.1%98-15.8%
116Jakobi MeyersWR119.4107-10.4%117-2.0%14218.9%
117Aaron RodgersQB120.91242.5%112-7.4%1264.2%
118Tyler BoydWR121.613611.8%13511.0%14015.1%
119Nico CollinsWR122.1119-2.5%109-10.7%108-11.5%
120Allen LazardWR122.615224.0%1327.6%14719.9%
121Jameson WilliamsWR123.417037.7%17642.6%101-18.2%
122Dalton KincaidTE123.91348.2%120-3.1%111-10.4%
123Geno SmithQB124.31250.6%103-17.1%99-20.4%
124Zay JonesWR124.615423.6%15927.6%115-7.7%
125Jared GoffQB129.116427.0%1408.4%118-8.6%
126Rashee RiceWR129.318140.0%15620.6%1311.3%
127De'Von AchaneRB129.814713.2%14410.9%113-13.0%
128Dalton SchultzTE130.2115-11.7%1418.3%106-18.6%
129Jaylen WarrenRB131.11320.7%128-2.3%17533.5%
130Jerick McKinnonRB131.8128-2.9%106-19.6%123-6.7%
131Tyler AllgeierRB132.4129-2.6%114-13.9%16726.1%
132Damien HarrisRB132.41448.7%124-6.4%17532.1%
133Tank BigsbyRB132.814912.2%127-4.4%17531.8%
134Rondale MooreWR134.3118-12.2%19242.9%17530.3%
135Elijah MitchellRB134.7114-15.4%122-9.4%117-13.2%
136Tyler HigbeeTE137.1133-3.0%113-17.6%17527.6%
137Raheem MostertRB137.51423.2%130-5.5%1519.8%
138Darnell MooneyWR139.9117-16.3%1421.5%17525.1%
139Marvin MimsWR140.117424.2%133-5.1%128-8.6%
140Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR140.416920.4%21653.8%17524.6%
141Kenneth GainwellRB140.41453.3%104-25.9%17524.6%
142Sam LaPortaTE140.716718.7%123-12.6%17524.4%
143Chigoziem OkonkwoTE140.9139-1.4%110-21.9%1463.6%
144Russell WilsonQB141.2126-10.8%1559.7%129-8.7%
145K.J. OsbornWR141.3137-3.1%17322.4%16818.9%
146Derek CarrQB143.519535.9%17018.5%134-6.6%
147Michael GallupWR144.8121-16.4%139-4.0%1567.8%
148Ezekiel ElliottRB145.7131-10.1%131-10.1%1503.0%
149Cole KmetTE146.195-35.0%137-6.2%119-18.5%
150Jordan LoveQB148.221545.1%20538.3%145-2.1%
151Gerald EverettTE148.216511.3%148-0.1%135-8.9%

ESPN

Under-ranked

RB Christian McCaffrey (8th) / WR Tyreek Hill (7) / WR A.J. Brown (17)

You'll never have a chance to start a draft with McCaffrey and then AJB in 12-team best balls, but it might happen on ESPN where those two are pre-ranked eighth and 17th. The other noticeably under-ranked players in the first two rounds are WR Stefon Diggs (13th) and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (18th).

     

WR Calvin Ridley (36) / RB Rhamondre Stevenson (48)

These are the guys that stand out most from Rounds 3-4, along with Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (28th) and WR DeVonta Smith (25th). ESPN also has a low ranking for RB D'Andre Swift (89th), but not for Dallas Goedert (72nd) or Rashaad Penny (110th), so the Philly hatred isn't universal.

           

QB Justin Fields (56) / WR Drake London (68) / WR Chris Godwin (65)

RB J.K. Dobbins (77) / WR Tyler Lockett (79) / WR Christian Kirk (80)

I can't imagine London actually lasts until pick No. 68 in many real drafts, but this way-too-low prerank could at least assist in him falling to the fifth/sixth round more often. He's currently my No. 44 for PPR, and goes right about there on major best-ball sites, mid-to-late Round 4.

        

WR Jordan Addison (96) / WR Gabe Davis (99)

None of the three sites has a rookie WR listed Top 80 in its default ranks. NFL.com comes the closest, listing Addison at 82 and JSN at 83, but it seems like rookies are a blind spot for all three sites. I have Addison ranked 72nd in the latest RW Top 150 Roundtable.

      

WR Elijah Moore (120) / WR Rashod Bateman (161) RB Zach Charbonnet (127) / QB Anthony Richardson (123) /   WR Romeo Doubs (159) 

WR Rashee Rice (181) / WR Jameson Williams (170) / QB Jordan Love (215)

       

Over-ranked

RB Derrick Henry (3) / DK Metcalf (21)

WR Deebo Samuel (23) / RB Dameon Pierce (33) / WR Christian Watson (37)

The ESPN ranks mostly seem to favor past production over untapped potential, but Watson is one of the few exceptions, perhaps because he had that TD-fueled stretch of productivity last November/December.  His default rank here isn't quite as egregious as Samuel's or Pierce's, though both are talented enough to live up to where they're listed. Samuel goes in the 30s in most formats, while Pierce tends to be somewhere in the 40s, 50s or 60s.

   

RB Rachaad White (51) / RB Alvin Kamara (53) / RB Isiah Pacheco (62)

WR Courtland Sutton (69) also stands out in his range, as he otherwise lands in the 90s or early 100s of rankings for the most part, perhaps pushing up to the 80s now with Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) looking shaky for the first couple weeks of the season. Other than that, we see a bunch of RBs listed early, which is a theme in the default ranks for each of the three sites we're looking at.

    

WR Skyy Moore (86) / RB Jamaal Williams (91) / TE Cole Kmet (95)

       

Yahoo

Under-ranked

QB Patrick Mahomes (30) / QB Josh Allen (32)

Yahoo generally has QBs lower than ESPN/Yahoo and lower than both best-ball ADP and RotoWire's Roundtable ranks. Glaring values include Fields at No. 56 and Justin Herbert (see below) at No. 75.

   

WR DJ Moore (55) / QB Justin Fields (56) / QB Joe Burrow (60)

WR Jerry Jeudy (82) / WR Mike Williams (69) / QB Justin Herbert (75)

TE Darren Waller (78) is another great value in this range, though he no longer fits the AFC West trend. Going by these numbers, you could stack Fields-Moore at the 4/5 turn or Williams Herbert at the 6/7. Best-ball drafters are jealous.

   

WR Quentin Johnston (126) / WR Treylon Burks (119) / WR Michael Thomas (116)

WR Zay Jones (159) / WR Jameson Williams (176) / WR Rondale Moore (192)

       

Over-ranked

RB Josh Jacobs (19) / RB Joe Mixon (27) / RB Aaron Jones (28)

Jacobs is a mid-R2 pick in all the default ranks but still only a third-rounder according to ADP and many expert ranks. This is one where I think the default ranks have the right of it, especially if Jacobs gets back on the practice field with a week and a half or two weeks left before the season opener.

    

RB J.K. Dobbins (38) / RB Miles Sanders (44) / WR Tyler Lockett (43)

Cam Akers (48) and Sanders are listed early in all the default ranks, as are a few other RBs, but the positional inflation is more glaring on Yahoo than it is on ESPN/NFL.com. These ranks make more sense for leagues that only start two WRs, but they're definitely too RB-heavy for leagues starting three, and even more so if it's PPR and there's a FLEX spot to start a fourth receiver.

     

TE Pat Freiermuth (83) / QB Daniel Jones (87) / RB Brian Robinson (89)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo (110) / RB Jerick McKinnon (106) / QB Geno Smith (103)

   

NFL.com

Under-ranked

WR Chris Olave (29) / WR Tee Higgins (31) / WR DK Metcalf (37) 

RB Joe Mixon (51) / WR Deebo Samuel (48)

Mixon is Top 30 on ESPN and Yahoo but not even Top 50 on NFL.com. I agree more with the NFL ranking, while everyone else above (Olave, Samuel, Higgins, Metcalf) is a high-confidence pick if you can get them where listed above. Olave and Higgins typically are second-round selections, not third-rounders.

    

WR Chris Godwin (77) / WR Mike Evans (78) / WR George Pickens (97)

NFL.com preranks seem to put a lot of weight on projected quality of QB play... even more so than typical ranks/projections. Godwins, Evans and Pickens all should be going at least a round (or two) earlier than where these ranks have them. Jahan Dotson (87) is another great WR value in the same range, FWIW.

        

RB Rashaad Penny (~175) / WR Romeo Doubs (~175) / RB Tank Bigsby (~175)

The NFL.com ranks get wonky after 100-125 picks or so, and not just because D/STs and kickers start to be included. It doesn't seem like a ton of thought went into the lower part of the ranks, so there's a ton of guys listed later than they should be.

       

Over-ranked

WR Cooper Kupp (3) / RB Tony Pollard (12)

RB Breece Hall (30) / RB Miles Sanders (41) / QB Treovr Lawrence (46)

NFL.com has QBs ranked earlier than Yahoo/ESPN, including Lawrence at No. 46 and Justin Herbert at No. 39. NFL.com is also much more optimistic than the other two on Anthony Richardson (88) and Justin Fields (38), not to mention Josh Allen (22).

   

RB Dalvin Cook (65) / QB Tua Tagovailoa (72) / RB Isiah Pacheco (66)

TE Dalton Schultz (106) / QB Geno Smith (99) / WR Jameson Williams (101)

   

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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