This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
This is the third edition of my early look at player values. I've covered the AFC North and AFC West. This week, we'll look at the AFC East. Entering last season, the Bills were the favorite to win the Super Bowl. In New York, the Jets hired defensive-minded coach Robert Saleh in the hopes of building a contender. The Dolphins made the splashy move to acquire Tyreek Hill to give the team incredible speed at receiver to pair with Jaylen Waddle. Meanwhile, the Patriots were still trying to figure themselves out in their third season without Tom Brady. As we enter 2023, the Bills will try to bounce back from a disappointing postseason. The Jets are trying to add a QB to improve their outlook. Miami is hoping that Tua Tagovailoa is healthy after suffering multiple head injuries last year. And the Patriots will continue to figure out their path in their fourth year without Brady.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have drafted a number of running back in recent years. They may have hit on one with Cook last year. He was eased in as a rookie, but his use ramped up as the season progressed. After handling five or fewer carries in nine of his first 11 games, he had at least 11 carries in four of the last nine games. In the passing game, his targets increased down the stretch, with 19 of 32 coming in the last six games:
- Cook had 87
This is the third edition of my early look at player values. I've covered the AFC North and AFC West. This week, we'll look at the AFC East. Entering last season, the Bills were the favorite to win the Super Bowl. In New York, the Jets hired defensive-minded coach Robert Saleh in the hopes of building a contender. The Dolphins made the splashy move to acquire Tyreek Hill to give the team incredible speed at receiver to pair with Jaylen Waddle. Meanwhile, the Patriots were still trying to figure themselves out in their third season without Tom Brady. As we enter 2023, the Bills will try to bounce back from a disappointing postseason. The Jets are trying to add a QB to improve their outlook. Miami is hoping that Tua Tagovailoa is healthy after suffering multiple head injuries last year. And the Patriots will continue to figure out their path in their fourth year without Brady.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have drafted a number of running back in recent years. They may have hit on one with Cook last year. He was eased in as a rookie, but his use ramped up as the season progressed. After handling five or fewer carries in nine of his first 11 games, he had at least 11 carries in four of the last nine games. In the passing game, his targets increased down the stretch, with 19 of 32 coming in the last six games:
- Cook had 87 carries but was the Bills' most-effective RB with 5.7 yards per carry.
- He showed explosiveness with six runs of 20 or more yards.
- He posted an 81st-percentile broken-tackle rate along with a 71st-percentile yards-after-contact rate.
As a 190-pound player, he may not see a heavy workload in 2023. But he could settle into 12-15 touches per game. If he builds on his use in the passing game from the end of 2022, his fantasy value would receive an additional boost. If an expanded role becomes a reality, he could finish as a top-24 running back. However, his draft cost likely won't be priced at his ceiling potential because of the risk the Bills use him as only a change-of-pace player. Based on the draft capital that Buffalo used on Cook, I expect it to give him significant work.
Davis had a great opportunity as the clear No. 2 receiver for the Bills heading into the 2022 season. Playing across from Stefon Diggs gave him an advantage against defenses that had to make Diggs the focal point. From a productivity standpoint, Davis had a disappointing season. He had fewer than five catches in all but two games. In eight games, he posted fewer than 40 yards. The one constant was his ability to score. In each of his three seasons, he's produced six or seven touchdowns:
- Davis posted a career-high 17.4 yards per reception in 2022.
- He recorded five games with at least 65 yards.
- He disappointed with a 22nd-percentile yards after the catch.
Entering his age-24 season, he shouldn't be written off. It's possible he still has a breakout on the way. But his situation last year was favorable, and he didn't capitalize, which means he will be available much later in fantasy drafts than he was last year. For those who believe he can make a leap, his situation should give him another great opportunity for a strong season. If drafting him as a WR3, fantasy managers should factor in the downside while believing there is potential for increased production.
Miami Dolphins
Raheem Mostert, at 30 years old, surprised the fantasy football world by posting career highs in carries and rushing yards last season. Talent has never been an issue. The fact that his 4.9 yards per carry was a career low is remarkable. He posted at least 64 rushing yards in seven games, though he recorded more than 80 yards just twice. Not only did he handle volume as a rusher, he was also targeted 42 times. That was almost as many targets as the 48 he had in his previous 45 career games. However, his 6.5 yards per reception was not close to the 12.9 and 9.8 averages he posted in 2019 and 2020:
- Mostert had career highs in carries 181 and rush yards 891.
- He had a 65th-percentile broken-tackle rate and 77th-percentile yards after contact.
Mostert is a free agent, but I would be surprised if he didn't return to the Dolphins. Between his success last year and his familiarity with the system going back to his days with the 49ers, it's a natural fit. If he returns, there's a good chance he starts the year as the top option in the Miami backfield. But between his injury history and his drop in efficiency from his career levels, betting on the 31-year-old to have a similarly productive season seems unlikely. However, if he falls outside the top-100 picks in drafts, Mostert is a reasonable option for RB depth.
New England Patriots
Stevenson was an excellent dual-threat running back last year. Although he wasn't overworked with 210 carries, he was targeted 89 times. His 96th-percentile yards-after-contact rate helped him reach five yards per carry. Of the four games he posted more than 30 receiving yards, each came during a five-game stretch between Weeks 7-12. In those four games, he gained 56-76 yards. However, he ended the season slowly as a receiver, recording fewer than 10 yards in four of his last five games:
- Last year, he posted 1,461 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns.
- Stevenson recorded at least four receptions in nine games
- He also had at least two catches in every game.
Assuming he retains similar use as a runner and receiver, he'll be in the conversation as a top-10 running back. If he gets more touches, he could finish near the top at his position. Those who worry that Bill Belichick won't give Stevenson consistent work will want to fade him. With the lack of high-end weapons on offense, I expect the Patriots will need to rely on him to carry the offense. I will draft him if he falls outside of the top-24 picks in fantasy drafts, especially when I use earlier picks on wide receivers.
New York Jets
Despite poor quarterback play, Wilson proved he was worth the 10th pick in the 2022 draft. He posted 13.3 yards per reception, thanks in part to ranking in the 67th percentile in yardage after the catch. Although he surpassed 75 yards eight times, seven of those performances came in the last 10 games. And before the Week 10 bye, he averaged 7.5 targets, but that increased to 10 per game after the bye:
- He caught just 82 passes on 147 targets, which was related to bad QB play.
- Wilson gained more than 20 yards on 13 of 83 catches.
After Wilson performed well in a non-optimal situation, any improvement at quarterback may directly lead to him posting elite numbers. Also, his increased use down the stretch showed the team's commitment to featuring him. He looks like a superstar in the making. After the top-12 receivers are off the board, he's a player I expect will outperform his draft cost.
