AFC East
Miami Dolphins - 12-5
Buffalo Bills - 11-6 (WC)
New York Jets - 10-7
New England Patriots - 6-11
With the addition of Jalen Ramsey, the Dolphins have the best CBs and WRs of any team in the division… and possibly the entire league. This might also be the top division overall, and it accounts for seven out of the Top 30 in fantasy ADP right now (The NFC South and AFC South, by contrast, each have just two top-30 guys).
Fantasy-Relevant Coaching Change(s)
The Jets are the only team in the division with a new coordinator or starting QB, having reunited Aaron Rodgers and OC Nathaniel Hackett (plus WRs Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. Hackett became a laughing stock as Denver's head coach last year, but Rodgers supposedly likes him and has credited him for some of the in Green Bay from 2019 to 2021 (three straight years with 13 wins and more than 4,000 passing yards). Rodgers attempted between 526 and 569 passes each of those seasons, so we can expect a balanced offense if RB Breece Hall comes back strong from last year's ACL tear.
Fantasy Breakout Stars
Hall and WR Garrett Wilson are the obvious picks, being highly drafted second-year pros who played well as rookies and got a QB upgrade in the offseason. Of course, they'll cost you a second/third-round fantasy pick. This isn't the best division for fantasy sleepers, as volume in most of the offenses figures to lean heavily toward standouts like Wilson, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Rhamondre Stevenson, etc.
Key Job Battle
Raheem Mostert can be considered the favorite for the Week 1 start, but third-round rookie Devon Achane typically goes earlier in fantasy drafts on account of perceived upside (and Mostert's poor record of durability). The biggest question right now is whether Miami will add Dalvin Cook, which would crater ADPs for Achane, Mostert and Jeff Wilson.
Wager on your team to win the AFC East at the Caesars Sportsbook.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals - 11-6
Baltimore Ravens - 11-6 (WC)
Cleveland Browns - 10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6-11
This is another strong division. The Browns are the biggest question mark, with a huge range of outcomes that largely depends on whether or not QB Deshaun Watson regains his peak form.
Key Coaching Change(s)
The Ravens ditched former OC Greg Roman for Todd Monken, who made a star of Stetson Bennett at Georgia after directing offenses that finished 16th, 3rd, 4th and 19th in pass attempts in four years as a coordinator for the Bucs and then Browns. A team with Lamar Jackson at QB will never finish top five in pass attempts, but the Ravens do figure to throw more than in the past, especially after adding WRs Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers (first-round pick) in addition to Monken.
Fantasy Breakout Stars
Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins, Browns WR Elijah Moore, Steelers WR George Pickens and Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth are all valid choices here. All four are second-round picks on rookie contracts and have ADPs outside the Top 50.
Key Job Battle
The Browns traded for Moore this offseason and apparently kept him busy at OTAs, but he could still end up behind Donovan Peoples-Jones if the strong spring doesn't carry over to training camp. Peoples-Jones has started 25 games in three seasons and had a career-high 839 yards last year. Moore's 2022 with the Jets was a washout, but his rookie year featured a two-month stretch of strong, fantasy-start-worthy production.
Nail the AFC North winner today at BetMGM.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars - 11-6
Tennessee Titans - 7-10
Indianapolis Colts - 6-11
Houston Texans 6-11
This is the weakest division in the stronger of the two conferences, though it could be a powerhouse in a few years if rookie QBs C.J. Stroud (HOU), Anthony Richardson (IND) and Will Levis (TEN) pan out.
Key Coaching Change(s)
The Texans and Colts revamped their coaching staffs – now led by DeMeco Ryans and Shane Steichen, respectively – while the Titans promoted passing-game coordinator Tim Kelly to replace Todd Downing as offensive coordinator. The Titans found success in the past by relying on RB Derrick Henry and one star wideout (A.J. Brown), but that was with a top-10 offensive line… something they no longer have. Kelly previously had a rather forgettable stint as Houston's OC from 2019 to 2021.
Fantasy Breakout Stars
The Titans certainly are counting on WR Treylon Burks to explode in Year 2, especially after losing Robert Woods to the divisional-rival Texans. The AFC South also has a pair of talented, young RBs with ADPs outside the first three rounds – Houston's Dameon Pierce and Jacksonville's Travis Etienne.
Key Job Battle
Richardson will start soon enough, but if you draft Colts WR Michael Pittman it'd be wise to hope Gardner Minshew gets the Week 1 nod. Offenses with dual-threat QBs tend to have more running plays and fewer short passes, especially in Richardson's case after he struggled on short throws but excelled on long one his final season at Florida.
Select the winner of the AFC South at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs - 12-5
Los Angeles Chargers - 10-7 (WC)
Denver Broncos - 9-8
Las Vegas Raiders - 4-13
Key Coaching Change(s)
The Broncos hired Sean Payton to fix what Hackett broke, while the Chargers hired former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore in the same role to make their passing game more vertical and efficient. Both moves could have huge fantasy impacts, and there's also the matter of Matt Nagy returning to his old job as KC's offensive coordinator after Eric Bieniemy left to join Washington.
Fantasy Breakout Stars
After a strong finish last year, Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is being drafted way ahead of teammate Courtland Sutton, who hasn't been the same since his ACL tear in 2020. If not Jeudy, the AFC West's breakout star might be a rookie. Every team in the division drafted a pass catcher within the first two rounds this April – Chargers WR Quentin Johnston, Raiders TE Michael Mayer, Chiefs WR Rashee Rice and Broncos WR Marvin Mims.
Key Job Battle
Rice, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are all candidates to play a lot of snaps for Kansas City. The latter is a one-dimensional deep threat, but each of the other three is a realistic candidate to emerge as KC's No. 2 pass catcher behind TE Travis Kelce.
Drive over to the DraftKings Sportsbook to wager on the winner of the AFC West.
NFC East
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Philadelphia Eagles - 13-4 -
Dallas Cowboys - 11-6 (WC) -
Washington Commanders - 9-8 (WC) -
New York Giants - 8-9
This is the strongest division in the weaker conference, featuring two of the NFC's top three teams on paper. The Giants also made the playoffs last year, and the Commanders have a shred of hope in the form of second-year QB Sam Howell.
Key Coaching Change(s)
New Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy is the headliner, moving from KC to Washington in an effort to escape Andy Reid's shadow. Bieniemy might finally get a head coaching gig if he helps Howell look good this year. The Eagles and Cowboys also have new OCs, with Philly opting for internal promotion Brian Johnson and Dallas bringing in former Seattle coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. The switch from Kellen Moore to Schottenheimer hints at a desire to run more, but the Cowboys don't have much behind Tony Pollard in the backfield unless they ultimately re-sign Ezekiel Elliott. Stay tuned.
Fantasy Breakout Stars
Pollard has a fantastic opportunity despite breaking his ankle at the end of last season. He's pricey in drafts, of course, while Washington WR Jahan Dotson can be had at a much lower cost. Dotson scored seven TDs as a rookie and saw 35 targets to Terry McLaurin's 34 over the final five weeks of the season.
Key Job Battle
The new RBs in Philly, D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, seem more like complements than competitors given their drastically different strengths. History also suggests injuries will be a big factor in how the two split work. My focus is on another backfield battle, with Malik Davis, Ronald Jones and Deuce Vaughn all competing behind Pollard in Dallas.
Think you know who will win the NFC East? Cruise on over to the Caesars Sportsbook.
NFC North
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Green Bay Packers - 9-8 -
Detroit Lions - 8-9 -
Minnesota Vikings - 7-10 -
Chicago Bears 7-10
Each of these four teams could easily finish first or last in the division. The Vikings went 13-4 last year despite allowing more points than they scored, and they're lack of defensive talent looks even more concerning this year. The Bears are the most improved team after a busy offseason, but they were also by far the worst of the bunch last year. Packers QB Jordan Love and suspended Lions WR Jameson Williams are the wild cards here.
Key Coaching Change(s)
Vikings DC Brian Flores is the only new coordinator in the division. His track record is promising, but he won't have much talent to work with Year 1.
Fantasy Breakout Stars
Vikings RB Alexander Mattison finally gets his chance to replace Dalvin Cook for more than a week or two at a time. The problem is that Mattison hasn't been especially good, which means Ty Chandler and rookie DeWayne McBride could also be factors. Other candidates include second-year Green Bay WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, plus the aforementioned Williams in Detroit and rookie wideout Jordan Addison in Minnesota.
Key Job Battle
Bears RBs Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman both fit best on early downs, while former Seahawks Travis Homer has mostly been a passing-down specialist to this point in his career. The Bears also spent a fourth-round pick on Roschon Johnson, who was Bijan Robinson's seldom-used backup at Texas and saw a lot of his playing time on special teams. A three/four-way committee is one of the possibilities here.
Pick the king of NFC North today at BetMGM.
NFC South
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New Orleans Saints - 9-8 -
Atlanta Falcons - 7-10 -
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7-10 -
Carolina Panthers - 6-11
The Bucs would be favorites again if not for the precarious QB situation with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask competing for a starting job. That makes New Orleans the safe pick, even with new QB Derek Carr coming off a down season his final year in Vegas.
Key Coaching Change(s)
Frank Reich takes over in Carolina, while the Bucs have former Seahawks QB coach Dave Canales as their new offensive coordinator. Both are reasonable hires, but it's not really clear what either means in terms of run:pass ratio or other strategies. Reich used a lot of RPOs in Philly, and his departure looks a bit better now in light of QB Carson Wentz failing badly at each of his subsequent stops.
Fantasy Breakout Stars
The Falcons used top-10 picks the past three years on TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London and RB Bijan Robinson. They don't have much else, so all three could conceivably have big years even if it's not a particularly good offense. Apart from those three and Saints WR Chris Olave, there's not much to get excited about from a fantasy standpoint in this division. Bucs RB Rachaad White has a great opportunity but didn't show much last year when he got chances and isn't likely to get much help from his team's QBs.
Key Job Battle
The Mayfield/Trask competition will get plenty of headlines but might not really matter for fantasy. What definitely will matter is how Atlanta splits carries between Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, though it's not necessarily a "job battle" in the traditional sense given that Bijan's draft spot and immense talent should put him in the starting role sooner than later.
Slide on over to the FanDuel Sportsbook to select the winner of the NFC South.
NFC West
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Seattle Seahawks - 12-5 -
San Francisco 49ers - 12-5 (WC) -
Los Angeles Rams - 5-12 -
Arizona Cardinals - 4-13
The Niners are still stacked apart from their questions at QB, but the Seahawks look like a real challenger after making big improvements on defense this offseason, highlighted by the return of LB Bobby Wagner and the drafting of CB Devon Witherspoon fifth overall.
Key Coaching Change(s)
The Cardinals have a new coaching staff led by former Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon, while Sean McVay brought in old friend Mike LaFleur to be his (non-play-calling) offensive coordinator, and the Niners hired experienced DC Steve Wilks to replace DeMeco Ryans (HC for Houston now). Arizona's new OC is 36-year-old Drew Petzing, formerly the QBs coach in Cleveland.
Fantasy Breakout Stars
RB Cam Akers doesn't have much competition for backfield snaps, but he also might not have much help around him after a tough offseason for the Rams. In Arizona, WR Marquise Brown and TE Trey McBride should be key parts of the passing game, though perhaps catching throws from Colt McCoy early on with QB Kyler Murray recovering from an ACL tear. Then there are the two rookies in Seattle; WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Round 1) and RB Zach Charbonnet (Round 2).
Key Job Battle
2022 second-round pick Kenneth Walker probably did enough last year to keep his starting job, but he'll lose some of the carries to Charbonnet and doesn't offer much as a receiver. The competition for playing time between those two could drag on throughout the season. If one of the two misses time, the other should put up big numbers.
Predict the winner of the NFC West at the DraftKings Sportsbook.
