2021 NFL Team Previews: New England Patriots

2021 NFL Team Previews: New England Patriots

This article is part of our Team Previews series.

New England Patriots

After going 7-9 in Year 1 of the post-Tom Brady era and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008, changes were inevitable. Armed with plenty of financial flexibility this offseason, the Patriots were aggressive spenders in free agency, building depth throughout the roster.

Offseason Moves

Key Acquisitions

One half of the team's formidable new one-two punch at tight end.

Will be featured in plenty of two tight-end sets along with Smith.

A threat to go deep, he averaged 18.7 yards per catch last year.

Versatile pass rusher adds valuable flexibility to the defense.

Can line up inside or outside and could carve out a key slot role.

Polished and efficient passer will look to supplant Cam Newton.

Key Losses

Knee issues ended the relentless competitor's tenure in Foxborough.

Dealt to free up salary cap space after opting out of the 2020 season.

A Look Under the Hood

Head Coach: Bill Belichick (Year 22)

Offensive Coordinator: Josh McDaniels (Year 13) - Erhardt-Perkins scheme

Defensive Coordinator: None - 3-4 scheme

2021 Vegas Projected Wins: 9 (T-14th)

   

2020 Record: 7-9

2020 Points Scored: 326 (27th)

2020 Points Allowed: 353 (7th)

2020 Point Differential: -27 (19th)

2020 Run-Play Rate: 51.3 percent (2nd)

2020 Offensive Snaps: 979 (29th)

2020 PFF O-Line Ranking: No. 4

Full 2020 Team Stats

   

Projected 2021 Depth Chart

QB: Cam Newton / Mac Jones / Brian Hoyer / Jarrett Stidham

RB: Damien Harris / Sony Michel / James White / Rhamondre Stevenson

FB: Jakob Johnson

WR1: Jakobi Meyers / Gunner Olszewski

WR2: Kendrick Bourne / N'Keal Harry

WR3: Nelson Agholor / Marvin Hall

TE: Hunter Henry / Jonnu Smith / Devin Asiasi / Dalton Keene

O-Line: LT Isaiah Wynn / LG Mike Onwenu / C David Andrews / RG Shaq Mason / RT Trent Brown  (RotoWire Rank: No. 5)

Kicker: Nick Folk

Full 2021 Depth Chart

Top Storylines

We're on to the Next Franchise QB

After letting last year's starter Cam Newton test free agency, the Patriots re-signed the former NFL MVP to an incentive-laden one-year deal. Under those parameters, it seems clear that the franchise isn't sold on Newton as its long-term answer at quarterback.

As a result, there was offseason chatter that a reunion with 2014 second-rounder Jimmy Garoppolo could be in the cards. When that didn't pan out, the team's attention turned to a possible upgrade via the 2021 NFL Draft. Rather than trade up to secure Justin Fields or Trey Lance, New England elected to stand pat and landed Mac Jones – who was rumored to be in the mix to go as high as third overall – at No. 15.

While the 6-3, 217-pounder doesn't dazzle with his mobility or arm strength, Jones' accuracy and decision-making helped him execute at a high level while helming Alabama's powerful offense last year. Though he no doubt benefited from working with a top-shelf supporting cast, Jones displayed the sort of skill set that should make him a good match for New England's offensive system.

While Newton tentatively is expected to open the season atop the depth chart, the rookie could make a push for the job and force the hand of coach Bill Belichick. Either way, given where Jones was drafted, it's only a matter of time before he takes the reins.

A Well-Grounded Attack

With a lack of high-end pass-catching weapons, the 2020 edition of the Patriots didn't scare opponents with their aerial exploits, but they did at least do some damage via the ground game. Damien Harris, a 2019 third-round pick, averaged 5.0 yards on 137 carries, while Sony Michel logged just 79 rushes but managed 5.7 YPC. Meanwhile, Cam Newton had just eight passing touchdowns but racked up 12 rushing scores.

That trio is back, as is change-of-pace ace James White, who figures to see an uptick in production after a dip last year, given the probability that New England's offense as a whole will improve due to offseason upgrades in personnel. Harris along with Michel seem poised to head the team's backfield this coming season, but it's a timeshare that could well tilt in Harris' favor.

The Patriots elected to decline Michel's fifth-year contract option, so the 2018 first-rounder is in prove-it mode, especially considering that power back Rhamondre Stevenson was added in the fourth round of the draft. With Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor also on hand, collectively this is a deep and capable backfield. From a fantasy perspective, however, accurately predicting how the team's weekly carry allotments are likely to shake out can be a frustrating endeavor.

Sizing Up the Pass Catchers

Equipped with a pile of cash to spend this offseason, the Patriots threw money at their wideout and tight-end issues, reeling in WRs Nelson Agholor (two years, $22 million) and Kendrick Bourne (three years, $15 million), along with TEs Jonnu Smith (four years, $50 million) and Hunter Henry (three years, $37.5 million). Now that Julian Edelman isn't in the mix, the quartet of newcomers will be counted on to revive a passing game that fizzled out last season. Time will tell if the Patriots get adequate bang for their buck, but after setting a record for guaranteed money handed out in free agency, the team can't be accused of a passive approach.

Though a run-friendly attack figures to be in store this season, Agholor gives the team a field stretcher, and Bourne's versatility will be an asset to a receiving corps that welcomes back 2020 bright spot Jakobi Meyers and 2019 first-rounder N'Keal Harry, who has yet to live up to his lofty draft status. It's a unit that lacks a prototypical WR1, but that's something that should be offset by the likelihood that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will relish rolling out two- and three-tight end packages. Expect the arrangement to help boost the minimal output the team got from the position last season, with 2020 third-rounders Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene barely factoring in.

Barometer

⬆️  Rising: RB Damien Harris

Harris' week-to-week production may fluctuate, with matchup specific game plans likely to emerge as important factors in determining his volume. Still, the 2019 third-rounder could be the team's preferred early-down option.

⬇️  Falling: WR Jakobi Meyers

Though Meyers deserves credit for being the team's most productive receiver last season, he now has plenty of competition for targets after multiple pass-catching options were added in a free-agent spending spree.

😴  Sleeper: WR Kendrick Bourne

Opportunities exist within a revamped wide receiver corps following the retirement of Julian Edelman. If the versatile Bourne garners his share of slot targets, he could gain relevance in PPR formats.

🌟  Pivotal Player: Cam Newton

The QB yielded uneven results in 2020 after joining the Patriots in late June. This time around, Newton will have an entire offseason in the program and will be working with an improved pass-catching corps that will feature several key free-agent additions. To keep his starting job, however, Newton will have to fend off rookie Mac Jones.

Medical Tent

QB Cam Newton

Newton, who logged 14 absences in 2019 while with the Panthers due to a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot, admitted this offseason that his throwing shoulder, which he hurt in 2016, didn't feel fully healthy until the start of the 2020 season. As the coming campaign approaches, the veteran QB has put further distance behind those two issues and doesn't have any known injuries to contend with heading into training camp. Newton – who missed one game last year while on the COVID-19 list – did suffer a minor bone bruise in his throwing hand in June but subsequently resumed practicing.

TE Jonnu Smith

Smith missed time this spring due to a hamstring injury, but the Patriots' high-profile free-agent pickup was healthy in time for training camp. He and fellow newcomer Hunter Henry will work toward the goal of forming a formidable one-two punch at tight end, a position that yielded little in the way of production for the team in 2020.

CB Stephon Gilmore

While much of the offseason focus on the 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year was related to his desire to re-do his contract with the Patriots, it's also worth noting that Gilmore is bouncing back from a partially torn quadriceps that he sustained this past December. He clearly wasn't 100 percent at the start of training camp, which he kicked off on the PUP list and where he remains at the moment.

Job Battle

As training camp progresses, added insight will be gleaned with regard to the Patriots' wide receiver pecking order, but with the offense potentially leaning heavy on the run this season, how New England's carries are likely to be allocated is probably of more note to fantasy managers. Of course, the franchise's backfields under Bill Belichick traditionally have been difficult to decode, given a tendency toward week-to-week shifts in approach and opponent-specific game scripts.

With that in mind, the trick is less figuring out which of the team's backs to target, but rather WHEN to throw draft darts at them, or alternatively how many auction dollars they're worth. At this stage, Damien Harris has the look of player who could seize the team's lead role, but 2018 first-rounder Sony Michel can certainly make a push for the assignment as well if he can stay healthy.

Meanwhile, James White seems locked into his usual pass-catching/change-of-pace gig, while fourth-round draft pick Rhamondre Stevenson is the real wild card in this backfield. If the team elects to move on from Michel, the 6-0, 227-pounder could carve out a role behind Harris and potentially earn short-yardage touches in 2021. Alternatively, Stevenson could be eased into things, a path the team has been inclined to take with rookie running backs of late.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mike Doria
NFL Editor for RotoWire. Roots for the Red Sox, Patriots, Bruins, Celtics and the underdog. Plus the McGill Redbirds.
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