Mexico City Grand Prix
Location: Mexico City, Mexico
Course: Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
Course Length: 4.30km
Laps: 71
Mexico City Grand Prix Race Preview
Max Verstappen won his 15th race of the season last week at Circuit of the Americas. While he didn't win from pole as was anticipated, his dominance was on full display again as he patiently worked his way from sixth on the grid to the lead by lap 30. From there, the race was his to lose. Even a late charge from Lewis Hamilton wasn't enough to truly worry the Red Bull Racing driver. Afterward, that Hamilton pressure become irrelevant when post-race scrutineering found Hamilton and Charles Leclerc's planks to have worn beyond the regulated maximum through the race weekend. The finding meant Hamilton and Leclerc were both disqualified from the finish. That moved Lando Norris up to second, and put Carlos Sainz Jr. on the podium. That decision may come to haunt Mercedes and Ferrari as the battle for second in the constructor's chase rages on. It appears McLaren is firmly seizing the advantage, and they could be in an even stronger position in that fight this week in the Mexico City Grand Prix.
Key Stats at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
- Races: 22
- Winners from pole: 10
- Winners from top-5 starters: 21
- Winners from top-10 starters: 21
- Fastest race: 199.176 kph
Previous 10 Mexico Winners
2022 - Max Verstappen
2021 - Max Verstappen
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 - Max Verstappen
2017 - Max Verstappen
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Nico Rosberg
1992 - Nigel Mansell
1991 - Riccardo Patrese
1990 - Alain Prost
Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is one of Formula 1's historic tracks. The circuit appeared first on the 1963 race calendar and it features long straights interrupted by tight and twisty corner complexes. The track has changed several times throughout its history, but the heart of the layout remains. After leaving the calendar following the 1992 season, the track reappeared in 2015 and has been a mainstay since. Aside from the long and fast front straight, the most distinguishable section of the track is the series of turns that take the cars through an old baseball stadium, generating an arena-like atmosphere. The other defining element of the circuit is not visible, but it is certainly felt. The track sits over two kilometers above sea level, which is the highest on the calendar by far. The thinner air at altitude is impactful for engines as well as aerodynamics. Engines need dense air to produce maximum power, and wings need that same dense air to generate maximum downforce. Teams will specifically alter settings in response to those conditions.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Mexico City Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $16,200
Sergio Perez - $9,800
Lewis Hamilton - $9,400
Lando Norris - $9,200
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Charles Leclerc - $8,800
George Russell - $8,600
Oscar Piastri - $8,400
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $7,600
Fernando Alonso - $6,800
Pierre Gasly - $6,000
DraftKings Constructor Values
Red Bull Racing - $14,600
Mercedes AMG Petronas - $9,200
McLaren - $9,000
Ferrari - $8,200
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Mexico City Grand Prix
Team Captain - Max Verstappen - $24,300
Alex Albon - $5,600
Daniel Ricciardo - $4,200
Nico Hulkenberg - $3,600
Guanyu Zhou - $3,200
Constructor - McLaren - $9,000
The Max Verstappen train is expected to keep rolling this week in Mexico. Nothing seems capable of stopping his dominance, and Mexico's circuit is not one where Red Bull would be expected to be weak. Verstappen has won four races at this track already, and he is poised to get his fifth at the venue on Sunday, which makes him a must-have as team captain. Alex Albon and his Williams have continued to punch above their weight. He was back among the points finishers a week ago at Austin, and the long Mexico straights should allow his car to be at its best. Albon's best Mexico finish was fifth in 2019 and he finished 12th at the track last season. Daniel Ricciardo said his comeback last week after two months out was miserable. While his lackluster performance might be reason to avoid him this week at Mexico, he remains a veteran that can turn things around quickly. Track limits and car damage hampered his ability to finish better in last week's race, and avoiding those missteps this week should boost him to contend for points. A driver who is no stranger to finishing in the points at Mexico is Nico Hulkenberg. He finished in the top 10 four of his five series starts at the track, with a best finish of sixth in 2018. He was on the cusp of the top 10 last week in Texas, too. Alfa Romeo's Guanyu Zhou is thus the final driver selection. He has one prior Mexico start from last season when he finished 13th. He has finished 13th or better in the last four races and, with a little improvement, could find his way into the points-paying positions this week.
The driver selections above enable fantasy players to grab McLaren as their constructor's choice. The price for Mexico being below that of Mercedes makes them seem like a bargain, too. The team said in advance that their package was not expected to be as strong at Austin as other tracks, yet Norris landed on the podium and Oscar Piastri might have as well if he hadn't sustained damage. McLaren is likely to be even stronger this week at Mexico, which means it is entirely possible that both of their drivers could end up on the podium again.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Mexico City Grand Prix
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Race Winner - Max Verstappen -400, Sergio Perez +750, Lando Norris +1600
Winning Constructor - Red Bull Racing -700, McLaren +1000
Winning Margin - Over 10 seconds -150, Between five and 10 seconds +275
Safety Car - No +125
It is well established that Verstappen and Red Bull will be the favorites this week. Mexico is not the most likely place for the other teams to challenge Red Bull more closely, but if anything unexpected should happen, Lando Norris and McLaren might be good options to consider. McLaren's car was not at its best in Austin, yet Norris finished on the podium and was promoted to second place. The car should be stronger at this track, and we might see both McLaren drivers on the podium. However, Sergio Perez is at his home race and will have some extra motivation to be on top of his game. While it is far from a sure thing, it would not be a surprise to see Perez snag a runner-up finish this week.
Given Red Bull and Verstappen's strength, the option of a large winning margin seems relatively attractive. Verstappen's margin at Austin was limited by the fact that he started from sixth on the grid. It took him nearly 30 laps to get to the lead, and that meant he had significantly less time to amass a large lead with the number of pit stops required through the race. Assuming he starts on pole at Mexico, the margin could easily be over 10 seconds.
Lastly, the likelihood of a safety car is relatively low this week. There was one caution in last year's race, but last week's run at Austin went off without any. Austin's more technical track would suggest a higher likelihood for a safety car, but the race was a clean one. Mexico, with its generally wide open spaces, make a caution this week seem somewhat unlikely.
