College Capper: Best Bets Week 5

Chris' Picks

Always happy to get a little lucky, and that's exactly what happened in Week 4 with Kentucky covering by a point, and hitting the Indiana/Western Kentucky over by .5 points. Good times - that's now my second total points win in as many weeks, something that never happens. Let's see if we can keep the winning vibes going.

North Carolina (-20) vs. Duke

UNC has been completely Jekyll and Hyde, but in their two home games, they've scored 59 points in each, won and covered relatively easily. Losing last week, and facing their cross-town rival will surely have then focused and ready to explode again offensively. Duke has faced Charlotte, Northwestern, North Carolina A&T and Kansas. This is a huge, huge step up in class and skill. They'll have some smoke and mirrors to get some points early, but they can't pass and UNC will key on RB Mateo Durant, shutting him down and winning with ease. 

Memphis (-11) at Temple

This looks like a buying opportunity; Memphis is fresh off a surprising letdown loss at UTSA, which was preceded by upsetting Mississippi State. That loss will refocus them here and spur an easy win. The Tigers can score in bunches, averaging 39 points, and Temple cant, topping 14 points against Akron and Wagner only. Memphis RB Brandon Thomas will gash a 90th ranked run defense, softening coverage and allowing for timely big plays in the passing attack. This is one of three games I circled Sunday evening, and the line is moving against our favor, so if you like it, shop around and pounce sooner than later.

Appalachian State (-10) at Georgia State

GSU has been blown out by Army and North Carolina, labored to a 20-7 win over Charlotte, then flirted with an upset at Auburn before a second-half collapse. I think the first three games are indicative of who they are, and that Auburn loss will linger here and lead to a lackluster performance. Similarly, Appalachian State narrowly lost at Miami, went through the motions against Elon before narrowly beating Marshall, who came with their best punch following a fourth-quarter collapse to ECU at home the week prior. They come in here with a clean slate and take care of business in a similar form to Memphis; big rushing success and timely chunk yards through the air.

Army (-7.5) at Ball State

Ball State is 119th in the nation in scoring, not topping 13 points against FBS competition. They are also 108th against the run, which we know is all Army will do. The Black Knights lead the nation in time of possession and are second in rushing offense. Ball State legitimately could get the ball just five or six times. They'll have to be nearly perfect as a result, something they aren't equipped to be. We do need to keep our eye on the health/availability of Army QB Christian Anderson, but I trust the system with or without him.

Fresno State (-10) at Hawaii

This column didn't evolve as hoped, as we've got four road favorites featured, three of which are at double-digit numbers. Normally tough on the islands, Hawaii has fallen to San Jose State at home while beating Portland State. Consider me unimpressed. They've predictably struggled coming to the mainland, including a 44-10 loss at UCLA, a team Fresno subsequently beat. The Bulldogs boast the nation's third-best passing offense, while Hawaii checks in 112th against the pass. Fresno's defense is top 50 in yards against the pass and run, and should get enough stops to win by two scores.

Last week: 3-2; Season:12-12

GREG'S PICKS

It appears as though I'm in a bit of rut, which if you're keeping track is better than a slump, much better than a predicament and miles ahead of an imbroglio. Another 2-3 week, which followed a 2-3 week, which, you get it, there's a pattern developing. The good news however is that I've managed to avoid disaster and I'm just one good week away from getting back to .500 and guess what? I love this card!

Not all 2-3 weeks are created equally, and this past week was definitely one where I was happy to get out of town just one game under .500. The losses were bad, I was a little worried that Fresno State might be looking back after a big win against UCLA the week prior and that's exactly what happened as the Bulldogs were asleep for the entire first half. Texas Tech was never in the game against Texas and Utah was sluggish all day against a bad Washington State team. One of the wins was easy, NC State was getting 10 points and the Wolfpack took Clemson to overtime and won outright. The other was not so easy as Duke needed a late score to get on top of the numbers against Kansas.

All lines courtesy of draftkings.com

Under (48) Iowa at Maryland

I'm going to start by stating that I hate taking unders in college football, especially when the number is in the 40s, but sometimes there are worthy exceptions. In this case, we have one solid defense and one pretty good offense. Fortunately, the solid defense is facing the pretty good offense, so I'm hoping Iowa can hold Taulia Tagovailoa in check. On the opposite side, for as good as Iowa has looked this season, its offense hasn't really shown much. Maryland meanwhile is playing some of its best defense in years (granted the competition has not been strong), and perhaps that will breed enough confidence to stymie the Hawkeyes this week.            

Minnesota (+2.5) at Purdue 

Talk about a buy-low opportunity. The Gophers are coming off an all-timer this past week as they lost at home as a 30-point favorite. Can you say pride-check? This isn't a bad team, which makes the loss this past week even more perplexing. I can't say the Gophers are going to win this game, but you can bet that the effort will be there from beginning to end. Purdue has three wins this season, but it's yet to impress. Last week's 13-9 home win over Illinois was less than inspiring and a win over UConn means little to nothing. Minnesota has both the talent and motivational edge this week, so the only thing left is execution.    

Michigan (+2.5) at Wisconsin

Thanks for tuning into the Big Ten weekly preview. Seriously, I'm in Big Ten country, so I'll generally have a better feel for these games than the others, but most weeks I'll have a variety of picks from across the country. This week, not so much. There's no doubt that the Badgers will be highly motivated this week after losing soundly to Notre Dame this past week, but after watching nearly all of that game, I'm not sure the Badgers have the talent to match up here. Now, under Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines have historically fallen flat in this spot and maybe I have blinders on here, but I think this year could be different. We'll find out this weekend as if the Wolverines win in this spot, it could be a big year. If not, it's time to look for the next coach at Michigan for the fifth straight season.  

Oklahoma (-11) at Kansas State

Perhaps the theme this week should be "buy-low". Unlike the Gophers, however, the Sooners did not lose this past week, they merely looked unimpressive while handing West Virginia a loss. Oklahoma certainly has some issues on offense, but the talent is there. We've seen this before, Oklahoma looks really good out of the gate, then it loses inexplicably to some massive underdog. Well, they tried to lose this past week, but it didn't happen. The part I didn't mention is that they usually bounce back strong after that poor effort and that's what I'm expecting this week. There is zero chance the Sooners look past this game, in fact, they might be more motivated at this moment then they will be at any point during this season.  

Over (72.5) Duke at North Carolina

We don't do units here, just straight up record, but if we could, I would place several units on this one. This is a perfect setup. On one side you have Duke, which plays at a frenetic pace. The Blue Devils are averaging 84.3 plays per game, which ranks 6th in all of college football. They average nearly 40 points per game on offense and they are surrendering 26+ points per game. Mind you, they've played only one decent team this season. On the other side, you have the Tarheel offense, which is one of the most potent offenses in all of college football, and they are coming off a terrible effort this past week at Georgia Tech where they only scored 22 points. This is going to be a crazy back and forth game early, with North Carolina pulling away in the second half, but not before Duke gets theirs.

Last Week: 2-3-0, Last Season: 9-12-0